On May 28, the State Council officially issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal (Guofa [2026] No.12), which made it clear that by 2030, key projects such as urban dilapidated housing renovation, urban village renovation and underground pipeline network renovation will be launched in an all-round way. This trillion-magnitude stock transformation order has brought new development expectations to the cement market which continues to be under pressure.
At present, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, the growth rate of new traditional infrastructure projects is slowing down, and this top-level design focusing on stock quality improvement is reshaping the demand pattern of the building materials industry in the next five years. According to
the 15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal, by 2030, the transformation of urban development and construction mode will have achieved initial results, and the foundation for safe development will be more solid. Among them, the renovation of dilapidated houses, the renewal of villages in cities and the upgrading of underground pipeline networks are listed as the core grasps, and special physical examination and renovation are required for urban residential districts built for 20 years or more.
The plan also clearly promotes the construction and transformation of urban underground pipeline networks and comprehensive pipeline corridors, speeds up the construction of lifeline safety projects, and promotes the construction of sponge cities. This kind of project is highly dependent on cement, concrete and other basic building materials, and has become an important policy demand growth point of the cement industry at this stage.
All along, the main driving force of cement consumption comes from the construction of new towns and large-scale infrastructure investment. Nowadays, with China's urbanization rate exceeding 65%, the volume of new construction continues to narrow, and the industry has to find new support points.
Urban renewal just fills this gap. Unlike new projects, the demand for cement in stock renovation projects shows the characteristics of decentralization, sustainability and long-term-not centralized and explosive large-scale procurement, but stable consumption based on rolling promotion of the area as a unit.
According to the relevant data of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, more than one third of the existing buildings in cities and towns in China have been built for more than 20 years. According to the rhythm of the plan, the renovation of residential quarters alone is expected to boost cement consumption by tens of millions of tons every year.
From the perspective of project types, the pull of this round of urban renewal on cement demand is mainly concentrated in the following directions:
It is worth noting that the plan specifically proposes to promote the large-scale development of green buildings and ultra-low energy consumption buildings, which is also a signal for cement enterprises. The proportion of demand for low-carbon cement and special cement will gradually increase, and the pressure and opportunities for upgrading the product structure will coexist.
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