this year, a number of cement supporting projects with an annual treatment capacity of one million tons of phosphogypsum have made intensive appearances:
Xiangyun Co., Ltd. has signed an engineering design contract for the comprehensive utilization project of 2 million tons of phosphogypsum, which will produce 1 million tons of high-quality cement clinker after the completion of the project; In March this year, Yidu Xingfa Chemical Co., Ltd. announced for the first time the 2 million tons/year phosphogypsum acid co-production cement project, which will produce 880,000 tons of cement (750,000 tons of clinker) after completion. In May this year, Guiyang Kailin Chemical Fertilizer announced the phosphogypsum cement clinker project, which will produce 720,000 tons of cement clinker annually after completion; Xingfa Group has previously made it clear that it is accelerating the project of phosphogypsum calcination to produce sulfuric acid and co-production cement, which is scheduled to be fully completed and put into operation in 2027.
These projects are reasonable in policy, well-founded in environmental protection and needed in industry-but what the cement industry lacks most at present is not new production capacity. Why
is phosphogypsum cement "aggressive"? Understanding why
phosphorus chemical enterprises are keen on launching such projects is the premise of understanding the follow-up problems.
Phosphogypsum is an industrial solid waste produced in the production of wet-process phosphoric acid. For every 1 ton of phosphoric acid produced, about 4 ~ 5 tons of phosphogypsum will be produced as a by-product. As the largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in the world, China has accumulated more than 800 million tons of phosphogypsum in history, with a comprehensive utilization rate of only about 50%, and the Yangtze River Economic Belt bears 82.6% of the national storage pressure. Soluble phosphorus, fluorine and heavy metals contained in phosphogypsum not only lead to strength defects and setting delay in the application of traditional building materials, but also easily lead to environmental risks such as groundwater pollution. Therefore, the harmless treatment and comprehensive utilization of phosphogypsum has become a bottleneck restricting the development of phosphorus chemical industry. The process of
"phosphogypsum to sulfuric acid and cement" breaks through this blockage at one stroke: after the calcium sulfate in phosphogypsum is decomposed at high temperature, one end produces industrial sulfuric acid to feed back chemical production and offset the cost of sulfur price increase; the other end produces cement clinker, which is sold as a by-product to generate income. A project, waste elimination, acid production, cement production, killing three birds with one stone, the economic account is quite beautiful. The
policy side has also given full confidence. The Action Plan for Comprehensive Utilization of Phosphogypsum explicitly encourages the resource utilization of phosphogypsum from the source, and some local governments provide policy support for such projects, such as environmental assessment green channel and land priority guarantee, which further reduces the threshold for phosphorus chemical enterprises to start. For this reason, this upsurge will not stop at the above cases, and the probability of subsequent projects queuing for publicity will be more.
For the cement industry, is this a new "variable" or a superposition of old pressures?
If the phosphogypsum cement project is put into the current supply and demand background of the cement industry, the answer is not so optimistic.
In recent years, the problem of overcapacity in cement industry has become more and more serious. Capacity utilization continues to run at a low level, and prices in some regions have fallen to near the cost line. Capacity removal is regarded by the industry as the top priority for the survival of the industry. A number of Hubei cement enterprises said: At this stage, the core work of the cement industry is to reduce, not increase.
However, the logic of the phosphogypsum cement project is that the clinker it produces is not an end, but a by-product-the elimination of phosphogypsum and the production of sulfuric acid are the main industries, and the clinker is just something "brought out by the way". This production logic means that even if the market price of clinker falls, as long as the overall project can be profitable (sulfuric acid is sold and waste treatment fees can be obtained), production will not stop and supply will not be reduced. This is quite different from the operation logic of traditional cement enterprises through active regulation on the supply side when the market is under pressure.
It is undeniable that the phosphogypsum cement route itself has its rationality-it absorbs the real solid waste and opens up the industrial closed-loop, which should not be totally denied. But the problem is that once such projects enter stable operation, the cement clinker they produce will enter the market at a very low marginal cost, which will exert continuous downward pressure on the normal cement price . Traditional cement enterprises can neither gain competitive advantage through price reduction (because rivals'cement is a "by-product") nor alleviate market pressure by reducing production (because rivals are not constrained by price signals), and the original market clearing mechanism will be seriously disturbed.
Some enterprises say that the phosphogypsum cement project may be "the last straw to crush the camel", although the words are heavy, it is not alarmist. In the
dilemma, is there a way to break the situation? The crux of the
problem has been clear: the phosphorus chemical industry has a rigid demand for solid waste disposal, and the cement industry has a rigid demand for capacity reduction, both of which are reasonable at the policy level, but in the same market space, conflicts of interest can not be avoided. The direction of
breaking the situation, perhaps from the following two points:
First, in the project approval process into the regional cement production capacity impact assessment. At present, the approval basis of phosphogypsum-based cement projects mainly relies on the policy framework of comprehensive utilization of solid waste, and seldom considers the balance of regional cement supply and demand. It is suggested that in the process of project environmental assessment or capacity approval, the "special assessment of the impact on the local cement market" should be included compulsorily. For the areas where the utilization rate of cement capacity in the proposed area has been lower than critical line, the approval threshold should be raised appropriately or the equivalent traditional capacity should be withdrawn simultaneously.
The second is to guide phosphorus chemical enterprises to explore the alternative path of clinker absorption and reduce market disturbance. Some projects have intended to use by-product cement clinker for special purposes such as building materials and foundation filling, rather than directly entering the commercial concrete market. This direction is worthy of policy encouragement, which can guide the directional consumption of phosphogypsum cement products by means of standard formulation and use certification, so as to avoid positive competition with traditional commodity cement.
To solve the problem of phosphogypsum solid waste is the way that China's phosphorus chemical industry has to go; and to maintain the supply and demand order of the cement industry is also the basic guarantee for the healthy operation of the economy. The dilemma does not mean that there is no solution, but the premise is that policy makers should take the initiative, rather than wait for the two industries to "fight hard" in the market. If it continues to be laissez-faire, the already fragile balance between supply and demand in the cement industry will only worsen.
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