Recently, anti-involution has become a hot topic, including the automotive industry, polysilicon industry, steel industry and so on. Anti-involution is a characteristic proverb formed in China, whose substantive content is close to anti-vicious competition, anti-unfair competition and so on. Many people interpret involution as full market competition, and even praise it, which is very foolish. They do not grasp the basic knowledge of economics. Many people like involution very much, thinking that involution will enable them to get cheap products, but they do not know that the involution rate first causes many enterprises to go bankrupt, and the direct victims are themselves; Many people are happy to see many bosses go bankrupt in the involution, but they do not know that the more bosses go bankrupt, the lower their income, and the assets they hold will become negative assets. Without realizing that all social strata are a community of destiny, it is difficult to cross the middle-income trap dug by populists.
1. Anti-involution is imperative
. From the agricultural society to the industrial society, and then to the AI era, the change of popular thinking will always lag behind the practice. Most of the theories summarized in practice lag behind the needs of the times, and even become fetters for further progress. It is the inevitable requirement of economic development to put forward the demand for anti-involution and develop the theory of anti-involution, to improve and even rebuild the business ethics system, and to form supporting laws and regulations. The road that
advanced economies have gone through is likely to be followed by other economies, and they can not fly over it. We need to learn from the history of advanced economies, more imitation, less creation, the results are not bad, can not run a big deviation, can not make a big mistake. We need to revere the failure of failed countries in transition, less idealism, less heroism, do not dream of summing up the failure of failed countries, to correct, we can achieve success! People's group selfishness and greed all want to get something for nothing, and it is impossible to have good results. Faced with the tide of transformation and development, different economic management methods determine the final results. Everyone wants to achieve a shining self, but is doomed to be left far behind and dusty. Most people plant the seeds of blind optimism, and most of them will harvest the tears of sadness. The biggest difference between the
industrialized era and the agricultural era lies in the specialized division of labor and large-scale standardized production in the industrialized era, which replaces the homogeneous and small-scale self-sufficient production in the agricultural society. Specialized division of labor and large-scale standardized production will lead to rapid excess production capacity and excessive market competition. Overcapacity and excessive competition will lead to repeated cycles of economic crisis. Only through appropriate active adjustment can harm of economic crisis be reduced. The traditional theory of planned economy came into being, trying to use the government-led plan to manage the economy, most of which ended in failure, and practice has proved that it seems not feasible. Neither
free competition nor a high degree of planning can solve the normal operation of the market. The successful experience of advanced economies in crossing the middle-income trap is to foster strengths and circumvent weaknesses and adopt a moderate planned economy under the guidance of the market. From the perspective of political system, the people's Congress system clarifies the relationship between elites and the masses, democracy and centralism, and can also be used for reference in economic management. Economic development needs to find the boundary of balance between market competition and moderate planning, and confirm the power of dominant balance. The inertial thinking left to us by the development of agricultural society for
thousands of years, such as "living within our means", "never tired of cheating", "the brave win" and so on, is becoming a major obstacle to the future economic transformation. "To live within one's means" leads to deflation and wealth shrinkage; "War never tires of cheating" leads to the lack of integrity and the rise of transaction costs; "The brave win" makes people regard involution as a way to win, enjoy it and hurt it. Practitioners
in over-competitive industries need to abandon the idea of clearing excess capacity through vicious competition, and actively seek to improve industry concentration, on the basis of a substantial increase in industry concentration, to seek a considerable degree of planning in industry production.
2. Anti-involution and acceleration of merger and reorganization
The cement industry has a relatively high degree of industry concentration, which is an important basis for the cement industry to obtain better benefits through off-peak production in the consumption platform period. However, in recent years, the role of off-peak production has become weaker and weaker, because consumption has entered the downward channel, and the supply reduction brought by off-peak production reduction is far behind the downward speed of market consumption. The main reason is that the dominant enterprises take advantage of their dominant position and lack of off-peak time to form a huge market supply. Other enterprises are forced to stop production passively and intermittently, forming a large number of shock production capacity, which becomes a huge elastic compensation cushion, making the off-peak production effect worse. Large enterprises and government departments communicate more smoothly, occupying the reputation advantage; small and medium-sized enterprises are more flexible in market operation, occupying the advantage of mechanism. For the sake of their own interests, the market players do not give way to each other, and the market competition lacks ethical constraints, so the industry needs to speed up the merger and reorganization, and further improve the concentration to cope with it. There are many ways to
improve industry concentration, and I list a few for your reference:
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(2) Strong large enterprise groups play their own capital advantages, integrate and control weak large and medium-sized cement groups, and improve industry concentration within a larger market radius.
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(2) Reverse acquisition of the equity of the dominant large enterprise group, after becoming its major shareholder, inject the production line overlapping with the market of the dominant large enterprise group into the dominant large enterprise group, enhance the value of shareholding and achieve win-win situation.
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(2) Integrate the cement sales enterprises in the region, establish a sales group, introduce large foreign enterprises as shareholders, and become the exclusive sellers of local and foreign cement enterprises in the region.
(3) Integrate the concrete mixing enterprises in the region, become the leading concrete enterprises in the region, and open up the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
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(2) Cooperate with the merger and reorganization of large enterprises in the region and market coordination, and enjoy the cool under the big tree of large enterprises.
2. Increase financial support for key enterprises and restructuring.
3. Anti-involution, seeking benefits, living in the present
, although it is imperative to improve industry concentration, but it can not be achieved overnight, living in the present, or to pursue benefits. As the leading force of the industry,
large enterprises should stand on the logic of improving the overall efficiency of the whole industry, helping small and medium-sized enterprises to make more money, so as to obtain the support of small and medium-sized enterprises. If small and medium-sized enterprises take advantage of the opportunity to eat tofu, large enterprises should carry out long-term and active shock therapy to cure the greed of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Medium-sized enterprises, as the most competitive enterprises in the industry, should also stand on the logic of improving the overall efficiency of the whole industry, helping large and small enterprises to make more money, so as to obtain the support of large and small enterprises. If large enterprises do not have a general outlook and always want to maintain their production capacity and expand their market share, medium-sized enterprises can actively participate in the competition. To emphasize the spirit
of contract
, if one side of the battle can crush the other side, then the weak side will be ruthlessly eliminated, and there is no game. When each side can not destroy the other side in a short time, or the cost of destroying the other side is too high, each side will choose to enter the game state. All parties in the game, including large and medium-sized enterprises, are fighting for more benefits with minimum concessions. The means of struggle is to compromise with one's own strengths and the weaknesses of the other side. All parties are not willing to fall into long-term consumption because of the failure to reach a compromise. All parties settle for the second best, reach a consensus and promise to make common concessions. In theory, there is a possibility of win-win situation. Whether the
parties in the game have the spirit of contract is the key to transform the theoretical win-win situation into a realistic win-win situation. Our difficulty lies in the lack of such a spirit of contract in thousands of years of traditional Chinese culture. In the process of playing chess, large and medium-sized enterprises repeatedly fail to keep their promises, enjoy it, are shameless, and are not afraid of retribution, which greatly increases the cost of playing chess. The restoration of the spirit of contract is a prerequisite for the orderly development of the industry! The premise for large enterprises to make concessions to other enterprises is that large enterprises should learn to make more concessions.
The industry also needs small enterprises to be more benevolent and less obedient, more modest and less unreasonable, more gentlemanly and less mean. Small enterprises should not be insatiable on the premise that large enterprises take the initiative to make concessions.
Human nature is evil, history is never just, and winners always want to get everything. As the saying goes, good is rewarded with good and evil with evil. Remind everyone to overcome nature, willing to give up interests, release goodwill, do not blindly boast that they can become the ultimate winner, who is the winner, it is not known, only compromise, in order to gain benefits faster and share benefits longer.
People, like animals, are not as complicated as they imagine. When you have no food in your pocket, dogs will not wag their tails at you. People, be ruthless. The ruthlessness of
large enterprises is reflected in the courage to lead shock therapy, through cruel competition, so that more enterprises shock and buy at a reasonable price.After the concentration reaches an absolute advantage, the remaining enterprises should be coerced to sign an alliance under the city. If they are obedient, they will be rewarded with a bone and let them become your shrimp soldiers and crab generals and work hard for you. If they are not obedient, they will make an example of each other, and make their meat into meat soup and give each person a cup. The ruthlessness of
small enterprises is reflected in their ability to cope with the shock therapy of large enterprises, even to lie down and enter the shock stage, and endure the pain of shock, learn to play dead but keep the enterprise alive!
7. Regional autonomy, limited production
, China's market is too large, the main body is too many, in the short term, it is impossible to achieve the unity of thought and action. Step by step, it is worth discussing to establish a mechanism led by the provincial cement association, led by large groups, limited production by enterprises, and led by large enterprises. Taking the Hubei market as an example, the specific ideas are as follows:
(1) substantially reduce the local daily average cement sales target, for example, reduce the daily average from 200,000 tons to 160,000 tons, and give 40,000 tons of market to cement enterprises outside the province;
(2) take that approved kiln diameter as the standard, Total Statistics Example: The quota sales of an enterprise is 5000 tons per day, but the actual daily sales is 3000 tons." The 2000 tons that have not been completed will be sold by the sales company jointly established by large enterprises, and the price will be fixed according to the industry agreement.
(5) Large enterprises are responsible for coordinating with surrounding provinces. It is agreed that the neighboring enterprises will enter the " example: each Tianshan, New Hope, River Mud, Asian Mud and other medium and large quantities entering Hubei have also been discussed in a unified way. The local enterprises shall take timely measures to negotiate and solve the problem of cement from other places after a long journey. If the negotiation fails, the reverse sales will be hedged. (6) Reduction and output of excess capacity: appropriately limit production and reduce excess capacity across the board. A one-size-fits-all approach is the easiest way to reach a consensus, and it is even less feasible if it is complicated. On the basis of production restriction, each company can only sell within the quota in the local market. The extra cement and clinker should all be sold outside the province, and large enterprises in other provinces should be responsible for active docking and planned consumption. If large enterprises in other provinces do not take the initiative to dock, they will be offset according to the local market price. (7) Core profit area construction Each province takes its own action to build the market under its nose into a core profit area; to build other provinces with cooperative relations into an auxiliary profit area; and to build other provinces without cooperative relations into a capacity release area. (8) The enterprise group improves the synergy efficiency . Taking Hubei as an example, the leaders of Huaxin, Gezhouba, Jinglan and Queshi are selected. Other enterprises voluntarily join the groups, take unified action, participate in the game and participate in the synergy. When the conditions are suitable, the enterprises in the group realize equity cooperation and realize paired rotation production. 8. Cooperate with the will of the state and contribute to jumping out of austerity . Jumping out of austerity is the will of the state. The falling prices of real estate, stock market, industrial assets and various commodities are the common losses of the whole society and are becoming the heartache of the state, government, enterprises and the people. The state is emphasizing anti-involution, and the cement industry needs to offer suggestions for the state, accelerate the implementation of anti-involution policy, and realize the return of industry value.
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