"Anti-involution
is still the main contradiction to be solved in the process of high-quality development in China now and for a long time to come." The judgment of Liu Hanyuan, chairman of the board of directors of Tongwei Group, poked the pain point of the photovoltaic industry.In fact, since the second half of 2023, the photovoltaic industry has entered a downward cycle, overcapacity has become increasingly prominent, the price of the main industrial chain once fell below the cost line, and corporate losses have repeatedly broken records..
Since then, " anti-involution competition " has gradually become a high-frequency word that photovoltaic people often talk about.
In order to cope with the industry dilemma, from enterprise self-discipline to policy guidance, photovoltaic people set off a wave of "anti-involution". At that time, how to break the "involution" competition and cross the downward cycle became the focus of attention of the photovoltaic industry.
On November 18, leaders of photovoltaic enterprises gathered in Chengdu to discuss the industry's " anti-involution" and "cross-cycle" countermeasures.
In order to cope with the "involution" competition in the industry, photovoltaic enterprises actively seek ways to break the situation, some enterprises began to turn to other fields based on self-discipline , while others focused on overseas markets . Promote the layout of photovoltaic industry "going to sea".
"As an enterprise, we should have price self-discipline. Quality self-discipline and capacity utilization self-discipline. Xu Zhiqun, chairman of Gaojing Solar Energy, said, "I mentioned this sentence at the industry conference a year ago, and now it is still applicable.".
Xu Zhiqun pointed out that at present, the key to breaking the "involution" competition and building a good ecology in the photovoltaic industry lies in self-discipline . Before self-discipline, he said that it was necessary to first clarify that " enterprises are the main body of self-discipline".
"Over the past year, photovoltaic industry associations and the government have done a lot of work, almost every month in the organization of various forms of exchanges, to discuss how to do a good job of self-discipline, to prevent vicious competition.". However, only each enterprise knows its own products, technological capabilities, management efficiency and corresponding competitors best.
"Although we all see that the future prospects of the industry are very good, but the relationship between supply and demand in the industry can not be solved quickly, it needs time and rhythm ." Xu Zhiqun, chairman of Gaojing Solar Energy, said frankly.
Taking the silicon industry as an example, "spontaneous storage" is essentially a timely stop-loss for enterprises that want to leave in advance, and enterprises willing to stay in the industry for a long time share part of the risk.
In addition to "less bleeding", photovoltaic enterprises need to rebuild their "hematopoietic function" if they want to survive steadily. For example, some enterprises turn to bet on new technologies such as BC, or moderately extend to ". In addition, in the period of industry adjustment, Lu Chuan, chairman of Zhengtai New Energy, also proposed to "jump out of photovoltaic to see photovoltaic" .
He said, "Now the photovoltaic side is cold as a whole, but the energy storage side is very popular.". Many photovoltaic problems must be solved through the mode of "light + storage" and "light + wind + energy storage".
For example, in the development projects undertaken by Zhengtai New Energy, many of the original " photovoltaic is not China, photovoltaic belongs to the world.
" Photovoltaic is not Chinese, photovoltaic belongs to the whole world." Director Shen Hui said in the exchange. Going to sea has always been an unavoidable topic for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises, and it is also an important measure to break the involution competition.
Speaking of photovoltaic going to sea, Zhang Fayu, chairman of Yingfa Ruineng, said frankly that the overseas market pattern has changed rapidly in the past two years. In the European market , the electricity price is high and the demand is strong, but the demand for product reliability is also high;
in Africa and India, the demand is large, but they are extremely sensitive to price and pursue cost performance;
However, the U.S. policy has been changing all the time, so if we want to lay out the U.S. market, we need to base ourselves on the long-term, while adapting and adjusting, but the return is relatively considerable.
From this point of view, although the layout of going to sea is a good policy, it is not easy to make profits. Without hard nuclear technology and cost advantages, it is difficult for enterprises to gain a firm foothold in overseas markets even if they go to sea.
"Enterprises must choose the mainstream technology of the industry."
In addition to discussing the transformation of enterprises and overseas markets, photovoltaic leaders also predicted the future route of photovoltaic technology. Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of
Shanghai Jiaotong University, judged that "in the next ten years, it will be very difficult for new photovoltaic technologies to shake the dominant position of crystalline silicon in large-scale applications.". He pointed out that the current crystalline silicon photovoltaic has formed a complete industrial chain and manufacturing system, which is a reality that any new technology needs to face up to.
In terms of technical route selection, Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, summed up two points:
First, a moderately advanced industrialization strategy . If the new technology is pushed forward hastily when it is not yet mature, it will often fall into the dilemma of "low efficiency and high cost", and eventually "break the halberd" on the way; but if it is blindly wait-and-see and delayed entry, it is likely to miss the golden window period of technology landing.
In this regard, Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, suggested that "it is more appropriate for enterprises to start industrialization half a year, one year or even two years later after the earliest emergence of technology."
The second is to give full play to the leading role of leading enterprises. Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said, "Leading enterprises have significant advantages in terms of capital, technological strength and market resources. Relying on these advantages, their technologies can often quickly win market recognition in a short period of one or two years."
Whether it is the accelerated release of PERC or the rapid popularization of TOPCon, it is inseparable from the large-scale resource investment and demonstration of leading enterprises.Therefore, Shen Wenzhong suggested that "when choosing the technology route, enterprises must choose the mainstream technology in this industry".
When discussing the future technology, Shen Wenzhong believes that the most important thing in five years is still crystalline silicon batteries , and that various forms of laminated batteries will become the mainstream in five years. But the premise is to solve the stability problem of the top battery material.
Taking perovskite as an example, its material structure and historical defects determine that the stability problem is not easy to solve, and even Martin Green, the father of solar energy, once said that "the stability problem of perovskite may never be solved ".
Instead of betting all the chips on a technology that has not yet fully verified its stability, Shen Wenzhong suggested that the industry need to find more materials other than calcium iron ore to make the upper layer of the laminated battery.
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