First, risk reduction affects the inflow of project funds, commercial mixed production continues to decline
in 2025, the government is at the peak of debt conversion, new bonds have increased the proportion of funds used to resolve debt and land reserve, and the behavior of borrowing new and repaying old funds occupies the capital space at the infrastructure end. The proportion of infrastructure in public financial expenditure has further dropped to about 20.5%, a decrease of nearly 3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Due to insufficient financial support, the growth rate of traditional infrastructure investment has generally declined, and the construction performance is fatigue. In terms of real estate, the effectiveness of policies gradually declined during the year, the decline in sales of new houses continued to widen, the endogenous improvement momentum has not yet emerged, real estate enterprises continue to face the problem of shortage of funds, and the pressure of debt repayment is more prominent. Therefore, the scale of land acquisition and new construction in the real estate industry continued to shrink substantially, resulting in a further expansion of investment decline.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, domestic infrastructure investment (excluding electricity and other industries) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points compared with the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, investment in real estate development nationwide fell by 15.9% year-on-year, an increase of 5.5 percentage points over the same period in 2024.
Figure 1: Real estate and infrastructure investment growth further down (%)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
浙公网安备33010802003254号