In 2025, affected by the continuous bottoming of real estate investment and the decline of infrastructure investment, the demand for cement continued to decline, the contradiction between supply and demand was further intensified, coupled with the fierce market competition, the overall price of cement fluctuated and declined, but thanks to the significant decline in coal costs in the first half of the year, the price of cement was higher than that of the same period, and the industry profit was restored to a certain extent throughout the year. Looking forward to 2026, we believe that cement consumption on the demand side will continue to show a downward trend; on the supply side, under the constraints of capacity management policies, the process of excess capacity reduction will be accelerated. The rebalancing pattern of supply and demand in the industry is expected to be gradually rebuilt, cement prices are expected to rebound, and industry efficiency will continue to show a low repair trend.
1. Demand for cement: Infrastructure support is declining and real estate drag is still deep
. From January to November 2025, the national infrastructure investment declined. 1. Specifically, from January to November, the completed investment in highway cement, which is closely related to the demand for cement, was 24178 170 million yuan, down 5.6% from the same period last year. Railway construction amounted to RMB753.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5. The growth rate of infrastructure construction turned negative. In addition, the investment in transportation infrastructure construction, especially in highway and waterway, still declined significantly, and the support of infrastructure construction for cement demand declined.
Figure 1: Decline in infrastructure investment from January to November 2025 Figure 2: Investment
in highway, cement and railway from January to November Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Real estate development. From January to November, the completed investment in real estate development decreased by 15.9% compared with the same period last year, of which the completed construction and installation projects decreased by 18. From the construction side, the new construction area is still in the deep decline channel, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% from January to November; Or affected by the expansion of the decline in the completed area in the year, the construction end as a whole is also poor. Year-on-year decline 9.
Figure 3: Investment in real estate development continued to explore downward Figure 4: Growth rate
of new construction and construction area from January to November Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) It is estimated that the national cement output in 2025 will be 1.69 billion tons. Year-on-year decline 7. In terms of months, the output in January-February was 170 million tons, with a year-on-year decline of 5.7%; in March, the demand was good, and the cement output increased by 2.5% year-on-year; in April-May, the peak season was not strong, and the demand declined year-on-year, and the decline in May was expanded; in June, the off-peak season, the intensity of peak staggering was increased, and the cement output continued to decline year-on-year; Affected by the high temperature weather from July to August, the decline of cement output expanded; in September, the downstream recovered slowly, and the decline of output deepened; 15.
Figure 5: Decline of cement output in 2025 Figure 6: Monthly cement output
from January to December Data source: Cement big data (in the provinces (cities) with https://data.ccement. growth, The cement output in Xizang and Ningxia is expected to increase by 12.24% and decrease by 0. Among the provinces (cities), Shaanxi, Shanxi and Fujian are expected to decrease by more than 15%, with insufficient funds in place, sluggish downstream construction, slow recovery of demand and large output decline; there are 6 provinces (cities) with a decline of 10% -15%, with relatively weak consumption; The output of Anhui, Henan, Guangdong, Hunan and other 13 places is expected to decline between 5% and 10%, basically following the national trend; Sichuan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other 7 provinces (cities) have also declined by different margins, and the decline is expected to be less than 5%, of which Hebei and Xinjiang are expected to decline by less than 3%, and the output decline is relatively small.
Table 1: Data Source of Cement Output
of Each Province (City) in 2025: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
II. Supply side: Fewer new production lines put into operation, more serious
excess According to the tracking of China Cement Net Cement Big Data Research Institute, as of the end of December, there were five clinker production lines put into operation in China, located in Shaanxi, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Jiangxi, with a total capacity of 753. It is estimated that the real productivity utilization rate of clinker in 2025 will be about 48%, less than half, reaching a new stage low.
Figure 7: The utilization rate of clinker production capacity is expected to continue to decline
in 2025 Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) By the end of December, the national cement price index recorded 102. Terminal demand fell to freezing point, and cement prices continued to decline. In February, affected by the low temperature and poor capital repayment, the trend of cement price declined first and then rose, and the overall shock declined. In March, the weather conditions improved, the operating rate of downstream construction sites and mixing stations increased, coupled with the better implementation of peak staggering in the industry, cement prices went out of decline and rose steadily as a whole. In April, affected by factors such as poor capital repayment, the construction progress of downstream construction sites and mixing stations was slow, and the overall price of cement fluctuated downward. In May, due to factors such as holidays and plum rains, the construction of downstream construction sites and mixing stations recovered slowly, coupled with high inventory pressure, fierce market competition, cement prices continued to fall. In June, due to the high temperature rainy season, the shutdown of the high school entrance examination and the pressure of funds, the market price was under pressure, showing the characteristics of "pushing up the fatigue and falling in the dark". In July, the downward pressure on prices was significant due to high temperatures, typhoons and continuous rainfall. In August, demand in various regions continued to be weak in the off-season, pushing up fatigue, and prices were mostly "rising and falling" or falling. In September, the demand recovery was poor, the market was not strong in the peak season, and the price increase was extremely limited. In October, the overcast and rainy weather was more, the demand was weaker than expected, and the cement price fell more or rose less. In November, market consumption began to turn flat, showing a trend of regional differentiation and steady pressure as a whole. In December, downstream construction continued to weaken, coupled with insufficient cost support, cement prices continued to decline.
Figure 8: Cement prices fluctuated lower (points) Figure 9: Prices of each week from 2022 to 2025 (%)
Data source: Cement big data (https://data.ccement.) The demand in Xinjiang is relatively stable, coupled with the strong rigidity of peak staggering. 4. Among the regions with falling prices, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hubei and other regions along the Yangtze River have all fallen by about 30%, with obvious pressure on demand, fierce market competition and the deepest price decline; Shandong, Hunan, Guangxi, Jiangxi and other 8 regions have fallen by more than 20%, with a relatively large decline; there are 13 regions with a decline of 10% to 20%, which are relatively scattered; Sichuan, Qinghai, Tianjin, Beijing and other four provinces (cities) all fell by less than 10%, with a relatively small range.
Figure 10: Cement price and year-on-year change
by region at the end of December 2025 
IV. Import and Export: The import of clinker continued to shrink, and the export of cement steadily increased
from January to November 2025. In terms of import price, the average import price of clinker from January to November was 34.37 US dollars/ton. Year-on-year increase 6.
Figure 11: The import volume of materials from January to November 2025 will remain at a low level
. Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.2025 from January to November, Export of cement 591.Figure
12: Export volume continues to grow
from January to November 2025 Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
5.
In 2025, the price of thermal coal fluctuated as a whole, the center of gravity moved down, and the pressure on the production cost of cement enterprises was reduced. The annual average spot price of thermal coal was 706.6 yuan/ton, down 18.1% from the same period last year. In January, the decline in demand was greater than contraction of the supply side, and the inventory was running at a high level. Terminal inquiry sentiment is low, and coal prices fluctuate downward. In February, the daily consumption of power plants fell, the recovery of non-electric industry was slow, the supply and demand of coal were weak, and the price continued to decline. In March, the demand for thermal power continued to fall, the performance of non-electric industrial coal was sluggish, the pressure of high supply and high inventory of coal appeared, and the price continued to decline. In April, downstream consumption continued to be depressed, purchasing enthusiasm was poor, trading activity continued to decline, and coal prices continued to decline. In May, the daily consumption of power plants was in the low range of the year, the loose pattern of coal supply and demand remained unchanged, the market pessimism has not been reversed, and coal prices continued to fall. In June, the high temperature weather promoted the increase of power coal consumption, but the high inventory suppressed the demand for replenishment of power plants, the trend of coal price first fell and then stabilized, and the overall low level operation. In July, the temperature continued to rise, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally, the policy of "anti-involution" was favorable, and the coal price rose at the bottom. In August, coal production declined, the daily consumption of downstream power plants was high, and coal prices continued to rise. In September, the temperature began to drop, and the coal price fluctuated in a narrow range under the pattern of double reduction of supply and demand, and finally rose slightly. In October, the cold wave in the north hit ahead of schedule, demand unexpectedly increased, power plants passively replenished ahead of schedule, and coal prices rose as a whole. In November, the cold weather weakened, coupled with the rapid rise in prices, the downstream intention to receive goods declined strongly, and the trend of coal prices declined first and then rose. In December, the expectation of cold winter was disappointed, coupled with sufficient supply, coal prices fell accordingly.
Figure 13: Fluctuation of coal price and decline
of average price Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.) We estimate that the total profit of pure cement business in the industry will be around 18 to 20 billion yuan in 2025. Considering the profits of overseas, aggregate, investment and other non-cement businesses, the total profits may be around 28-30 billion yuan. Since this year, the overseas business of Chinese-funded enterprises represented by Huaxin Cement and Western Cement has achieved "explosive" growth, and the profit contribution of overseas business has surpassed that of domestic enterprises. On the whole, the profits of the cement industry will be restored to a certain extent in 2025.
Figure 14: It is estimated that the total profit of the whole industry in 2025 will be around
28-30 billion yuan. Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.) This shows that the focus of the policy is to digest the stock inventory and control the new increase. It will take some time for the real estate market to stabilize and recover. From the perspective of sales area and new construction area, both of them are still in a slow and stable state, and it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. It is expected that the investment side will continue to decline in 2026, but the range will be narrowed, and the cement consumption in the real estate side will continue to decline year on year.
Figure 15: Real estate sales and new construction are slow and stable
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) The "Tenth Five-Year Plan" proposal points out that we should strengthen planning and demonstration and implement a number of major landmark projects. Promote the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capacity projects in key areas with high quality. In 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan", it is expected that the issuance scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special bonds will increase, and the investment in infrastructure will return to positive. However, under the influence of the debt conversion policy, the investment in transportation and municipal infrastructure, which are closely related to the demand for cement, may continue to be depressed. It is expected that the overall support of infrastructure for cement demand will be improved, but the strength may still be weak.
Figure 16: Expected increase in the amount of new special bonds Figure 17: Continued
differentiation in the internal growth rate of infrastructure Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) We expect that the annual cement output in 2026 will be about 1.6 billion tons, down by about 5% year-on-year.
Figure 18: It is estimated that the cement output in 2026 will decrease by about
5% Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) In addition, nearly 300 production lines have been replaced, and the cumulative net output capacity has exceeded 50 million tons. It is expected that under the guidance of the capacity management policy, there will still be more projects to supplement capacity in 2026, and the excess capacity will continue to be withdrawn. At the same time, the production of enterprises in accordance with the approved capacity will be further standardized, and the contraction of the supply side will be effectively enhanced.
Table 2: Information
of new clinker production line planned to be put into operation in 2026 Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.2026 year, the work of supplementing production capacity will continue to be promoted, the restriction of compliance production of enterprises will be strengthened, and the supply side will be effectively controlled. The rebalancing pattern of cement supply and demand is expected to be gradually rebuilt, and the cement price is expected to rebound at a low level in 2026, showing a trend of "low before and high after", which is expected to surpass the same period in the second half of the year.However, we need to be vigilant that demand is still declining, while the competition and cooperation relationship between large enterprises is highly uncertain, the foundation of cement price surge is relatively weak, and the overall rebound space of cement price is expected to be limited.
Figure 19: Cement price is expected to rebound
in 2026 Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) Overall, the industry profit in 2026 is still at a relatively low level.
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