year 2025 is drawing to a close. After nearly a year of policy guidance and industry self-discipline, the price of photovoltaic industry chain has gradually stabilized and rebounded, and the loss of enterprises has narrowed. The "anti-involution" campaign has achieved initial results.
However, it is undeniable that the photovoltaic industry is in a period of deep adjustment, still facing many problems such as "involution" competition, overcapacity, absorption pressure and so on. As 2026 is approaching, where will China's photovoltaic industry go?
Zheshang Securities
2026 will be the "year of turning point"
in the photovoltaic industry. In the recent research report, Zheshang Securities believes that the turning point signal of the photovoltaic industry is now . There are three reasons:
First, the price bottomed out and rebounded . In the third quarter of 2025, the price of polysilicon rose by 47% compared with the previous quarter, which led some enterprises to reduce losses; Second, restore the confidence of enterprises, Longji Green Energy, Jingao Science and Technology and other leading companies issued equity incentive plans, aiming to turn losses into profits in 2026; Third, the fund allocation has bottomed out . In the third quarter of 2025, the allocation ratio of the fund to photovoltaic equipment was only 2.
Considering the uncertainty of market-oriented electricity prices in various regions, Guojin Securities is expected to be conservative, neutral and optimistic . In 2026, the newly installed capacity in China will be 185 GW, 225 GW and 275 GW respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -35%, -21% and -4% respectively.
In addition, as the "anti-involution" of the industry continues to advance, the backward production capacity is expected to accelerate the clearance in 2026, the rate of second and third-tier enterprises will remain low, and the tail production capacity will face withdrawal or restructuring. In this process, Guojin Securities believes that the profit of the photovoltaic industry chain in 2026 is expected to turn around .
in CITIC Futures
is gradually approaching single
digits. In the next 3-5 years, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the world will continue to grow , but the growth rate will gradually approach single digits . From the perspective of
regional markets, China, Europe and the United States and other traditional large markets will still maintain the leading scale, but the new installed capacity may enter a plateau period of several years, which does not exclude the possibility of periodic decline in annual installed capacity; in contrast, the demand of emerging markets such as the Middle East, India and Latin America is expected to continue to grow at a high speed.
In this context, CITIC Futures expects that the global installed capacity of photovoltaic will be 630-650 GW in 2026.
In the overseas market , Guotai Junan Futures expects to add 293 GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026, an increase of 11% year-on-year. It presents a pattern of " declining mature markets and increasing emerging markets ". The details are as follows:
The European market continues to grow negatively, and it is expected to increase installed capacity 69. The weak economy has led to the decline of subsidies in many countries (Germany, France and other countries have reduced their photovoltaic support projects); the weak infrastructure of the power grid has brought difficulties in consumption, and the installed capacity of Spain and other countries has been hindered; In addition, the Anti-Forced Labor Product Regulations, which will come into effect in 2027, will restrict China's component exports, and may face the risk of falling demand after the rush for exports in the future.
The Indian market has become the core growth bright spot, with new installed capacity of 50GW expected to increase by 25% year-on-year. India plans to achieve 280GW PV installed capacity by 2030, and the subsidy policy due in fiscal year 2026 will drive short-term rush installation; although the ALMM localization list of modules and cells is implemented, the local cell production capacity is only 13.In the annual strategy of the photovoltaic industry in 2026, the new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic
in Zhongyuan Securities
slowed down or even declined
in 2026. Zhongyuan Securities believes that the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 270-300GW in 2025 ; In 2026, the new installed capacity of the domestic PV power generation market is expected to be flat. The main logic is:
First, centralized power stations rely on the construction of large bases, and the installed capacity is expected to continue to increase next year;
Second, Document 136 will have a far-reaching impact on the revenue model of power plants, and the integration of optical storage and the increase of the proportion of self-use will become a trend. At the same time, domestic policies encourage nearby consumption, and distribution will return to the essence of spontaneous self-use. Zhongyuan Securities expects the new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic to slow down or even decline in 2026.
In addition, Zhongyuan Securities believes that emerging markets will rise next year , and the demand of old markets such as Europe and the United States will remain stable.
Specifically, the early expiration of the investment tax credit policy impacts the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the United States; the aging of the European power grid and the decline of incentive policies restrict the market increment, and the traditional European and American markets will remain stable; while the rigid demand for electricity in the Asia-Pacific market and the transformation of energy in the Middle East are expected to continue to be the hot spots in emerging markets.
demand side, Guolian Futures believes that the demand for polysilicon in 2025 is mainly affected by the price of the industrial chain and the downward impact of the mechanism price in the 136 document, and the domestic photovoltaic installation is under pressure, which is less than expected throughout the year and is weak as a whole. 2026 We believe that the global and domestic installed capacity growth slope will slow down .
Guolian Futures said that in 2026, the growth rate of global photovoltaic installed capacity has entered a plateau period, and the growth mainly depends on emerging markets.From the perspective of installed capacity, the global installed capacity in 2026 is expected to be about 490 GW under the neutral expectation, with a year-on-year rate of -11%; Under super-optimistic expectations, the global installed capacity is expected to be 540 GW next year, with a year-on-year increase of -1.
Based on the above situation, Guolian Futures believes that the demand for polysilicon is expected to be 1.22 million tons under neutral demand. Optimistic demand is 1.37 million tons . On the whole, the market will be in the game stage of supply and demand rebalancing. In terms of
price, Guolian Futures expects the overall operating range to be 4.8-6 in 2026.
China-Thailand Securities
Photovoltaic Storage Synergy is the only way
for the transformation of photovoltaic enterprises in the future. After the electricity market, the on-grid price of PV has been reduced, and new PV projects may have a phased observation period. However, from the perspective of the supply-side reform of the industry, stabilizing the matching degree of PV supply and demand, and ensuring the sustainable development trend of the industry, it is expected that the new installed capacity of PV in China will be maintained at more than 200 GW in 2026.
Looking at the global market, China-Thailand Securities said that considering the uncertainty of new domestic installations, but emerging markets are accelerating, the number of super-GW markets is expected to exceed 40 this year, and it is expected to increase further next year. It is expected that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will remain above 500GW in 2026.
In addition, China-Thailand Securities said in its 2026 investment strategy report that most of the component head companies lost money in the first three quarters of 2025, while is based on this." China-Thailand Securities suggests that component companies increase the layout of energy storage, on the one hand, they can use photovoltaic channels and brand reuse to promote business structure optimization and profit stability; On the other hand, through the "integration of optical storage" to expand household/industrial and commercial/park/micro-grid/virtual power plant and other scenarios, the whole chain service capability from equipment to system, operation and maintenance and transaction is formed, and the whole chain service capability of customers is enhanced.
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