At present, the domestic cement industry has set off a wave of supplementary production, especially near the end of the year, the announcement of supplementary production is flying everywhere, but these supplementary production schemes are not all "perfect", there are also many problems.
Today, we will discuss the problem of substantial new capacity caused by the replacement of production capacity according to the record (approval) in the case of "large-scale construction and small-scale construction".
Overcapacity is the top problem facing the domestic cement industry at present and even in the future. At the national policy level, whether it is the Guiding Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Promoting the Steady Growth of Building Materials Industry, Adjusting Structure and Increasing Benefits issued in the past ten years or the Work Program for Steady Growth of Building Materials Industry (2025-2026) issued this year, it is clearly pointed out that new cement clinker production capacity is strictly prohibited.
It can be said that strictly prohibiting new cement clinker production capacity is the key red line running through various industrial policies of the cement industry in recent years, and should be regarded as one of the most basic criteria for the behavior of cement enterprises. However, in the process of this round of supplementary production, there have been many cases of substantial new cement clinker production capacity caused by relying on policy "loopholes". The
Capacity Replacement Method (2024 version) changes the capacity indicators used for replacement for nearly ten years, which are determined according to the design capacity and the actual completed capacity in the project filing or approval documents, and the principle of "who is smaller, who is approved". The number of capacity used for replacement is determined strictly according to the capacity specified in the project filing (approval) documents. This has opened a "green light" for the "batch of large and small" projects to expand replaceable capacity. There is even a situation that the production capacity of the record (approval) in the replacement scheme is "longer" than that of the record (approval) in the previous production line list.
Just recently, a φ3.5m clinker production line in a southern province was announced to be used for another production line to supplement production according to the record capacity of 2500 t/d, with a replacement ratio of 2:1, and the actual clinker production capacity of 1250 t/d was transferred out. However, according to the list of cement clinker production lines published by the province, the actual production capacity of the above production lines is only 1500t/d. If this is the basis, only 750t/d production capacity can be set up under the ratio of 2:1. The transferred capacity index has been expanded by 1000t/d, resulting in a substantial increase of 500t/d.
If the actual capacity of the above production line is 1500t/d, the total output capacity is 1250t/d, at least 250t/d is reduced on the table (account), then a few days ago, a φ4.0 m clinker line was transferred out according to the 4000t/d record capacity, of which 2500t/d was transferred to another production line in the same plant area according to 1: 1500t/d is transferred to another production line in the province according to 1.5: 1, and the actual output capacity is 3000t/d, which is 500t/d more than actual capacity of the line (2500t/d, as shown in the list of production lines in the province). There are many
similar cases, for example, a φ3.0 m clinker line is replaced according to 1200t/d record capacity, a 3.5t/d clinker line is replaced according to 2500t/d record capacity, and so on. These production lines basically have one characteristic, that is, the kiln diameter is generally 4.0 meters or less, and the actual production capacity is far less than registered (approved) production capacity, that is, "large batch" production capacity and "small construction" production line. The sharp turn in the way of determining
production capacity indicators has made such "large-scale construction and small-scale" production lines set up production capacity according to the registered (approved) production capacity, which seems to make the "large-scale" production capacity transferred in the name of "compliance", but in fact, there is already the possibility of new clinker production capacity in disguised form (including inadequate reduction). In fact, it has exceeded the industrial red line of "strictly prohibiting new cement clinker production capacity". When supplementing production capacity in compliance with regulations, it is also time to supplement the "patch" of the way to determine production capacity.
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