As we all know, 2018-2022 is the peak profit period of the national cement industry, which makes the number of new clinker lines to be built at that time large. From 2020 to 2024, the national industry and information system has announced a large number of new clinker lines for capacity replacement. Among them, some projects have been completed and put into operation, some projects have been announced to cancel construction, and some capacity indicators have been re-announced to supplement the compliance capacity of completed projects. According to the big data statistics of China Cement Net, 16 clinker lines will be put into operation in 2023, with a capacity of 23.52 million tons; 11 clinker lines will be put into operation in 2024, with a capacity of 14.63 million tons; and 4 lines will be put into operation in the first half of 2025, with a capacity of 6.293 million tons. On the whole, the number of new clinker production lines is gradually decreasing.
At present, the cement industry has a serious overcapacity and a sharp decline in demand. The commissioning of each clinker line will have a profound impact on the local market. However, due to the complexity of the project process, the process of capacity replacement, environmental assessment and energy assessment in the early stage takes a long time, and the construction period takes at least one year, resulting in a long time from project planning to production, China Cement Net combed the new projects currently under construction (preheaters, rotary kilns, etc., are all newly built, on the basis of the old line). The new clinker lines that are actually under construction and are likely to be put into production this year and next year are as follows:
Some new clinker lines are built on the basis of the original old clinker lines through technical transformation. For example, Zhejiang Jinyuan, Zanhuang BBMG and other enterprises have transformed the original production line with a daily output of 2000 (2500) tons into a clinker line with a daily output of 4000 tons. Relatively speaking, this transformation method has small investment and short construction period. In the current situation of serious decline in industry profits, it is a more rational technical solution.
With the decline of cement demand, serious overcapacity and sharp decline in profits, some of the new clinker lines replaced by the announcement have not substantially started construction and are at a standstill. According to the big data of China Cement Network, there are still 45 clinker production lines to be built. According to Article 23 of the Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry in 2024, if the announcement of the capacity replacement plan has been completed and the project has not been started before the implementation of the Measures, the ignition and production shall be completed before the end of December 2026; if the project has not been completed, the capacity replacement plan shall be invalid after January 1, 2027.
It is suggested that most of the clinker lines that have not yet been substantially started in civil construction, except for very few clinker lines, such as those that have just been publicly replaced by high-contention building materials in Xizang Nyingchi City and special cement production lines for replacement, should be stopped, and that the local industry and telecommunications departments should be applied for as soon as possible. The original capacity index is supplemented to the established clinker line to maximize its value. If the delay continues, new projects will not be able to be constructed, and the capacity replacement indicators that have been purchased will not be able to be replaced for the second time due to the new policy requirements (no replacement for more than two years), resulting in significant asset losses.
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