Recently, there have been several supplementary announcements on the production capacity of Anhui clinker production lines in the industry.
For example, Tongling Shangfeng Cement 1 # and 2 # production lines are supplemented with 500t/d production capacity respectively, and the index source is Meizhou Meiyan Rotary Kiln Cement 2000t/d clinker production line; The two ten-thousand-ton production lines of Tongling Conch supplement 1125 t/d production capacity respectively, and the index source is the 4500t/d clinker production line of Guiding Conch Panjiang Cement.
Since last year, domestic cement production lines have begun to fill up production capacity on a large scale. In this way, cement enterprises, on the one hand, regularize overproduction production lines by supplementing production capacity; on the other hand, adjust the layout of production capacity, and supplement the production capacity indicators of production lines with poor future market prospects or poor competitiveness to areas with obvious location advantages or relatively good market prospects. This is the case for
Anhui cement enterprises to supplement production capacity from other provinces, and at present, only Anhui has production capacity from other provinces along the Yangtze River , Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Hubei.
As we all know, Anhui has the first 137 million tons of clinker production capacity in the country, and the utilization rate of clinker production capacity ranks first in the country for many years. Taking 2024 as an example, the utilization rate of clinker production capacity in Anhui Province is as high as 99.54%, which continues to rank first in the country and is 34.26 percentage points higher than national average.
However, Anhui's own cement consumption is not large. In 2024, the actual cement output exceeded 120 million tons, and the clinker output was nearly 130 million tons, but the total amount of cement exported to the Yangtze River Delta and coastal markets exceeded 50 million tons. Therefore, Anhui's supplementary clinker production capacity actually requires the whole riverside and coastal markets to "pay the bill" together.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the total cement output of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Fujian provinces and cities was 19685 0.67 million tons, a decrease of 9.9703 million tons, a decline of 4.82% compared with the same period last year, which exceeded the national average (4.3%) by 0.5 percentage points.
In addition, in the first half of this year, the total cement output of the above five provinces and cities fell below 200 million tons for the first time since 2011, directly returning to 15 years ago, and from the trend of recent years, since 2021, the cement output of the five provinces and cities has entered the downward channel, showing a rapid downward trend as a whole. In terms of
population, by 2024, the total population of the five provinces and cities will be about 280 million. Assuming that the total population will remain basically unchanged in the near future, only 196 million tons of cement are actually needed according to the per capita cement consumption of 600-700 kg in developed countries, which is equivalent to the total cement consumption of the five provinces and cities mentioned above when the clinker in Anhui Province is ground into cement.
From the perspective of cement price, as a former price highland, the cement price in the Yangtze River Delta has been affected by the deepening contradiction between supply and demand in recent years, and has long lost its courage in previous years. According to the data of
China Cement Network, the overall price of cement in Zhejiang has shown a downward trend since 2021, and it has continued to decline since late April this year. By late July, Zhejiang cement prices had fallen back to the level of early 2017. The situation in Anhui, Jiangsu, Fujian and Shanghai is basically similar.
It is worth noting that in recent years, there have been many price wars in the cement market in the Yangtze River Delta, and cement prices have fallen below 200 yuan/ton from time to time. In fact, the situation of the cement market in the Yangtze River Delta has been very severe, and price wars may break out among enterprises at any time.
From the perspective of market structure. The market along the Yangtze River has gathered a large number of powerful cement enterprises. The above five provinces and cities alone have concentrated industry giants including China Building Materials, Conch Cement and Red Lion Cement, as well as Huaxin Cement , Gezhouba Cement, Taiwan Cement and Oriental Hope Cement in the upper and middle reaches. In addition, there are local private enterprises in Jiangsu, including Jinfeng Cement , Pangu Cement , Helin Cement and Leida Cement .
Relying on the link of the Yangtze River, the whole market along the Yangtze River presents a state of pulling the trigger and moving the whole body. At the same time, due to the large number of participants, including large state-owned group enterprises and regional private enterprises, as well as Taiwan-funded enterprises, it is more difficult to form a consensus in the market. Especially in the context of declining market demand and intensifying contradiction between supply and demand, the situation of the market along the Yangtze River is more delicate.
At present, the market along the Yangtze River seems calm, but in fact, the foundation of mutual trust among major enterprises is not solid. Anhui cement enterprises need the whole regional market to digest the clinker production capacity, which will aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, further reduce mutual trust in the market and endanger the stability of the industry.
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