Conch Cement: Cement demand is expected to decline by about 7% in 2025

2025-11-12 14:28:18

From the demand side, from January to September, the national fixed assets investment fell by 0.5% year-on-year, the annual interest growth rate showed negative growth for the first time, affected by the funds in place, the infrastructure investment increased by 1% year-on-year, the growth rate continued to slow down, the real estate market continued to decline in depth, of which the real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, the decline expanded month by month, and the real estate market continued to decline. New housing construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, comprehensive factors, from January to September, the national cement output was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year.

On November 12 , Wang Manbo, the representative of Conch Cement Securities Affairs, introduced in detail the third quarter performance of Conch Cement and other related information.

Wang Manbo said that in the first three quarters of 2025, the national cement market opened high and went low, especially since the second quarter, showing a trend of "falling volume and price, pressure on efficiency", and the structural contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent.

From the demand side, from January to September, the national fixed assets investment fell by 0.5% year-on-year, the annual interest growth rate showed negative growth for the first time, affected by the funds in place, the infrastructure investment increased by 1% year-on-year, the growth rate continued to slow down, the real estate market continued to decline in depth, of which the real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, the decline expanded month by month, and the real estate market continued to decline. New housing construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, comprehensive factors, from January to September, the national cement output was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. From the perspective of the

supply side, the peak-shifting production was tight before and loose after. In the first quarter, the peak-shifting production of the industry was well implemented, which played a positive role in stabilizing the market; since the second quarter, due to the continuous downward trend of market demand, the peak-shifting efforts were not enough, and the implementation deviation was large, resulting in the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand, and the weakening of the market.

From the perspective of cement prices , in the first three quarters, the national cement prices showed a general trend of high before and low after, and downward shocks. From January to September, the average price of P O42.5 cement market in China was 372 yuan per ton, down 0.5% from the same period last year. Since September, although market prices have recovered, the basis for price recovery is still unstable. Since the second quarter, the market along the Yangtze River has not been steadily improved, but benefiting from the decline in coal costs, the cement industry realized a profit of about 22-23 billion yuan from January to September, an improvement over the same period last year, but still at a low level.

Wang Manbo introduced the operation and development of Conch Cement in the first three quarters.

In the face of the complex and severe industry situation, Conch Cement strengthened its domestic and international operation and market coordination, deeply tapped the potential of cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, performed well in major operating indicators, increased its profitability, and continued to consolidate its leading position in the industry. In terms of

sales volume and sales price, the sales volume of self-produced cement clinker products in the first three quarters decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, mainly due to the contribution of overseas growth. The sales price of self-produced cement clinker products decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but the gross profit margin increased by 5.8 percentage points year-on-year. Aggregate prices declined slightly year-on-year, although commodity prices declined, but thanks to cost control, gross profit margin increased by 4 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of

revenue and profit, the first three quarters realized tax revenue of 61.3 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, of which the third quarter realized revenue of 20 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters was 6.304 billion yuan, an increase of 21.3% over the previous year, and earnings per share was 1.19 yuan. In the third quarter, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.937 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the same period last year. In terms of

cost control, the company comprehensively promotes cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, and strengthens the whole process of cost benchmarking control. In the first three quarters, the comprehensive cost of cement clinker products decreased by 18 yuan, 9.7% per ton, which led to the growth of profits. In terms of

investment and development, the Company adhered to the effective investment orientation, the main business of domestic cement continued to expand, the Xinjiang swing project was successfully delivered and consolidated, which further improved the layout of the domestic market, the business of aggregate commercial investment was steadily expanded, and a number of dry-mixed mortar and ceramic tile glue projects were completed and put into operation, forming a good pattern of coordinated development of the main business and upstream and downstream industrial chains. Steady progress has been made in new energy projects, a number of photovoltaic energy storage projects have been started or connected to the grid, the development of digital industry has been upgraded, and the development of cohesion has promoted the transformation and upgrading of the main cement industry to high-end, green, intelligent and intelligent.

Wang Manbo also introduced Conch Cement's outlook for the industry situation and the company's business development in the fourth quarter.

The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season of the cement industry, but affected by the downturn of the real estate market and other factors, it is expected that the demand for cement will continue to decline year-on-year, but the overall demand will be better than third quarter, and the annual demand decline is expected to be about 7%. Considering the poor profit performance of most cement enterprises in the third quarter, although the enterprises in the industry have a strong desire to improve their profits. However, whether the cement price can rise steadily in the fourth quarter depends on whether the industry can effectively increase the peak staggering time and rigid enforcement. The fourth quarter of

2025 is the key stage of the annual target sprint. Conch Cement will focus on the core tasks and go all out to fight the final battle.

The first is to strengthen the policy guidance. At present, the state is comprehensively tackling the involution competition, promoting the industry to strengthen self-discipline, and tightening the new regulations on capacity replacement, aiming at accelerating the withdrawal of inefficient production capacity. Conch Cement will take the initiative to seize the opportunity to optimize the supply and demand of the industry and continue to consolidate its competitive advantage.

Secondly, we should intensively cultivate the industrial market, adhere to the construction of the main cement market as the foundation, stabilize the stock and expand the increment, develop the fine aggregate and commercial concrete industry, expand the scale of consumer building materials, and build a solid foundation for efficiency.

Thirdly, we should continue to tap potential and reduce costs, take innovation as the driving force, take benchmarking as the criterion, promote the fine management of the whole process, optimize various production technologies and energy consumption indicators, continuously optimize the upstream and downstream industrial chains, reduce procurement and transportation costs, and consolidate cost advantages.

Fourth, accelerate external development, actively promote the integration and replacement of main business capacity, accelerate the landing and market expansion of overseas projects, and at the same time, invest in new projects of consumer building materials, cultivate new growth engines such as environmental protection and new energy, improve the layout of the industrial chain, and enhance comprehensive competitiveness.

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Correlation

From the demand side, from January to September, the national fixed assets investment fell by 0.5% year-on-year, the annual interest growth rate showed negative growth for the first time, affected by the funds in place, the infrastructure investment increased by 1% year-on-year, the growth rate continued to slow down, the real estate market continued to decline in depth, of which the real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, the decline expanded month by month, and the real estate market continued to decline. New housing construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, comprehensive factors, from January to September, the national cement output was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year.

2025-11-12 14:28:18