Core Viewpoint: Affected by the poor availability of project funds, the new construction in the first half of the year was delayed, the progress of construction in progress was slow, and the demand for cement decreased by 23% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the increase of peak staggering production led to the weakening of supply, the market showed a pattern of "weak supply and demand", and the price fluctuated. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the capital problem is still the dominant factor, the traditional seasonal demand boosting effect is weakened, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Although the supply side continues to stagger peak production, it is difficult to eradicate the problem of excess capacity, and the withdrawal of excess capacity is the fundamental way out. Comprehensive judgment: in the second half of the year I. Review of
Shanghai cement market in the first half of the year 1. Cement consumption declined significantly."
From January to June, the total cement consumption in Shanghai was 8.14 million tons, down 23% year-on-year. Demand continued to be weak in the first half of the year, with monthly consumption lower than the same period last year. Since April, the year-on-year decline has shown a narrowing trend.
2、 Cement enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have increased the number of days of kiln shutdown and stabilized their
market share. From the perspective of cement source areas in Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for 84.0%, 同比微降3.7 percentage points (of which Zhejiang has the largest decline, reaching 3.7%. Year-on-year + 1.8%), Hubei (6.3%, year-on-year + 1.4%), Chongqing (2.0%, year-on-year + 0.
3、 fluctuated, with a slight year-on-year increase
in the average price. As of June 30, P.O42. The average price in the first half of the year was 301 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 20 yuan/ton, showing a fluctuation pattern as a whole, with a slight year-on-year increase in the average price.
Shanghai cement market outlook
for the second half of the year 1. Project progress is slow, and the annual concrete output may decrease by 20%
. According to the data of Shanghai Concrete Industry Association, the city's concrete output in the first half of the year was 22.99 million cubic meters, down 19% from the same period last year. Among them, the consumption of real estate projects was 9.58 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 14% (23% in the same period of 2024); the consumption of non-real estate projects was 13.41 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 22% (6% in the same period of 2024). The decline in real estate projects has narrowed, but the decline in demand for municipal, infrastructure and other non-housing projects has increased significantly.
1. By the end of June, the completed investment was 1221.6 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of the annual plan.
Although the investment progress of key projects was more than half, the actual construction volume was limited in view of the significant decline in concrete consumption of non-real estate projects. Based on the existing annual investment plan, there is limited room for the growth of concrete consumption in non-real estate projects in the second half of the year.
1.2 and real estate projects: the newly started projects are weak and lack of
staying power. From January to May 2025, the 上海房屋新开工面积累计663.62 is million square meters, down 17.1% compared with the same period last year; The total construction area was 15151.82 million square meters, representing a slight increase over the same period last year. 2. On the other hand, after the liquidation of some enterprises in the industry, the capital and progress of construction projects have improved, and the construction area has increased year on year, which has led to a narrowing of the decline in concrete consumption in real estate projects.
However, the continued sharp decline in new construction area means that the growth of construction volume in the later period is limited. If there is no obvious rebound in new projects in the second half of the year, the demand for concrete in real estate projects will continue to decline.
2、 Industry Chain Survey Highlights Capital Pressure and Intensified
cement trader A | declined significantly in the first half of the year, and the accounts receivable of last year were collected, but there was basically no collection for this year's project. In the second half of the year, the sales volume is difficult to improve significantly: on the one hand, the poor availability of project funds leads to the delay of commencement; on the other hand, the market competition is fierce, some of the bid prices are too low, and selective orders are received. |
Cement trader B | is under great pressure of repayment in the first half of the year, and plans to suspend the supply of some downstream mixing stations. In the second half of the year, the risk of repayment will be more strictly controlled. Sales of |
cement trader C | fell by more than 50% in the first half of the year, and there was basically no repayment. Some project contracts have been signed for more than one year, and the start of construction has been delayed due to the lack of funds. Market capital pressure is high, and it is difficult to improve significantly in the second half of the year. |
Cement trader D | adjusted the customer structure and focused on the customers of state-owned enterprises. In the first half of the year, the sales volume increased year on year, and the capital repayment was controllable (the repayment of state-owned enterprises was generally better than that of private enterprises), but the repayment was mostly in the form of financial products, with low profits. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of |
mixing station A | decreased significantly, and the accounts receivable increased year on year. Since July, some infrastructure projects have been launched, but the overall progress has slowed down due to the slow arrival of funds. The progress of housing construction projects under construction is relatively good, and the output is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The concrete output of |
mixing station B | continued to decline in the second quarter, and some key projects and supporting projects in the surrounding areas were delayed due to capital problems. The second half of the year is expected to depend on the commencement of key projects, and there is no clear timetable for the time being. |
Construction units A and B | planned to purchase less cement in Shanghai in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year. |
Construction unit C | plans to increase the purchase volume in the second half of the year. |
Comprehensive research conclusion:
The market capital problem is prominent:
① Traders and mixing stations hold orders, but the poor availability of project funds leads to the delay of commencement, and the demand is not released.
② The accounts receivable of some suppliers in the first half of the year exceeded the expectation, and the risk of payment collection will be strictly controlled in the second half of the year, which may reduce the supply. Intense
market competition:
① Overcapacity, fierce competition among cement enterprises, easy to fall and difficult to rise in price.
② The number of projects is reduced, the competition among traders is intensified, and the bid-winning price of some projects is too low. The
second half of the year is expected to be weak :
① Most construction units plan to purchase less cement in the second half of the year than in the first half.
② Suppliers generally feedback that the demand is difficult to improve. Under the severe situation that the contradiction between
supply and demand is intensifying and the market demand is declining, under the general environment of conventional production restriction in various industries,
3、 peak staggering production has encountered difficulties of one kind or another, and rigid implementation is becoming more and more difficult. However, it is still the "ballast stone" to stabilize the cement market. In the second half of the year, enterprises continued to stagger peak production, control production and limit production, and reduce supply pressure.
For resolving overcapacity, peak staggering production can not cure the symptoms. The fundamental way out lies in the withdrawal of excess capacity, so as to realize the transition from "staggered peak to output" to "rational capacity". Compared with rigid capacity removal, with the support of government departments, it is equally important to strengthen top-level design, promote from the institutional and policy level, and try first in qualified regions or enterprise groups, such as exploring the establishment of a capacity withdrawal fund combined with carbon market trading, so as to rationally remove capacity in a moderate way. At the same time, we should give full play to the role of association autonomy and enterprise self-discipline, promote cooperation and reorganization between regions and enterprises, and enhance regional industrial concentration. "If production capacity does not go, there will never be peace.". Only by reducing excess capacity can we finally achieve a higher level of optimization, transformation and upgrading, and move towards a new stage of high-quality development. In the first half of the year, Conch, Nanfang, Queshi and other enterprises have taken the lead in issuing of oversupply, the competition among enterprises in the industry is full, the upstream and downstream continue to play games, and the price of cement is easy to fall and difficult to rise. At present, the price of cement in Shanghai will remain low in the second half of the year according to the comprehensive judgment of P.O42.
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