Recently, Wood Mackenzie released a report on the U.S. solar market, saying that the Trump Administration's "Big and American Act" will be a major shift that will fundamentally reshape the U.S. energy market.
As the new bill gradually abolishes tax credits for clean energy, the U.S. photovoltaic market will face a situation of "rising first and then declining"-there may be a wave of "rush to install" in the short term, but the long-term growth prospects are full of great uncertainty.
The Big and Beautiful Act significantly narrows the time frame for wind and solar projects to qualify for full tax credits, requiring projects to be in service by December 31, 2027. But projects that start construction within 12 months of the bill's enactment could remain eligible until mid-2030, creating a crucial transition period that could trigger a rush to install. Solar capacity is expected to increase in 2025-2026 as developers rush to meet deadlines.
At the same time, however, unpermitted development projects face increasing uncertainty, as permitting bottlenecks may result in completion dates that exceed the eligibility period.
As a result, Wood Mackenzie believes that the long-term outlook for renewable energy in the United States is facing a downward trend, and predicts that with the elimination of tax credits, the 10-year installed capacity of solar energy may decline by 17% to a low of 375 gigawatts of alternating current. In addition, the installed capacity of wind power will decrease by about 20% in 10 years, and the uncertainty in the future will further increase.
This forecast is quite different from the US solar market forecast released by Wood Mackenzie in April this year.
In April, Wood Mackenzie predicted that the United States would add 502 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity by 2035.
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