In recent years, the problem of overcapacity in the national cement industry has become more and more serious, and the voice of the industry to resolve the overcapacity by regulating the scale of clinker production capacity continues to rise. Among them, the idea of shutting down clinker production lines of 2500t/d and below has attracted the most attention, and many places have clearly proposed to phase out production lines of 2500t/d and below.
Zhejiang: In the Action Plan for Continuous Improvement of Air Quality in Zhejiang Province, it is required to accelerate the integration of clinker production capacity in key areas of cement production, and complete the integration and withdrawal of no less than 8 clinker production lines of 2500 t/d and below by 2025.
Chongqing: The Implementation Plan of Chongqing Material Industry Carbon Peak proposes to encourage superior enterprises to integrate inefficient production capacity in the city through market-oriented mergers and reorganizations, and gradually withdraw from cement clinker production lines of 2500 t/d and below (except special cement).
Jilin: The Notice of the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Metallurgical Building Materials Industry clearly States that the clinker production line of more than 4000t/d (inclusive) will be built through capacity replacement in the province, the single-line scale and energy efficiency level will be improved, and the clinker production line of less than 2500t/d (exclusive) will be gradually withdrawn.
Fujian: "Opinions on Comprehensive Implementation of Ultra-low Emission Transformation of Cement Industry" encourages 2500t/d new dry process kiln to implement "large pressure small", transform to 5000t/d and above scale, and achieve ultra-low emission simultaneously.
Jiangxi: The 14th Five-Year Plan for Jiangxi Province to Address Climate Change proposes to speed up the elimination of ordinary cement clinker production lines of 2000t/d and below, and to speed up the elimination of ordinary cement clinker production lines of 2500t/d and below in areas with low capacity utilization.
Shandong: According to the requirements of the Action Plan for the Implementation of the "Three Resolutes" in the Province (2021-2022), all cement clinker production lines below 2500t/d will be integrated and withdrawn in 2022, and half of the 2500t/d production lines will be withdrawn. The rest must determine the capacity replacement plan and withdraw by the end of 2024.
Ningxia: According to the Guiding Catalogue for the Adjustment of Industrial Structure with Dual Control of Energy Consumption in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (Trial), Cement clinker production lines with a capacity of less than 2500t/d, JT kilns and cement mills with a diameter of less than 3.2m (including mineral powder mills) will be eliminated in 2023 (chemical supporting cement clinker production lines will be extended to 2024); 2500t/d cement clinker production lines will be eliminated in 2025 (except chemical supporting).
Then, if all the cement clinker production lines of 2500t/d and below are eliminated, can supply and demand of China's cement industry reach a balance?
According to the incomplete statistics of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, up to now, there are 1498 new dry clinker production lines in operation in China, with a total clinker production capacity of 1.76 billion tons. Among them, there are 545 production lines of 2500t/d and below, involving an annual clinker production capacity of 360 million tons, accounting for 20.4% of the total clinker production capacity in China. If all these production lines are eliminated, the annual production capacity of clinker in China will be maintained at about 1.4 billion tons.
From the demand side, the annual output of cement in 2024 is 1.825 billion tons. Assuming that the utilization rate of clinker production capacity is 75% as a reasonable state, the actual production capacity of 1.4 billion tons of clinker is 1.05 billion tons, and the cement clinker coefficient is 0.67, which can produce 1.75 billion tons of cement. That is to say, after all the clinker production lines of 2500t/d and below are shut down, the problem of overcapacity can be basically solved according to the current domestic cement demand situation.
However, domestic cement demand is in a rapid decline stage, and the industry expects that domestic cement demand will drop to about 1 billion tons in ten years. Therefore, even if all production lines of 2500t/d and below are nominally shut down, the actual capacity will still be seriously excessive. At the same time, 2500t/d still has its necessity to exist, especially in some areas with less demand, 2500t/d production line is more suitable for local development requirements, while large lines may face the dilemma of indigestion and long-distance transportation to find a market, which may increase the emission of pollutants in the transportation process. And increase the cost of sales. Should the 2500t/d production line be
shut down? Everyone is welcome to express their opinions.
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