With the end of the disclosure of the three-quarter report, various photovoltaic listed companies have conducted three-quarter performance presentations one after another, responding to questions about market conditions, demand outlook, industry layout and so on.
Under anti-involution, how does the component link perform? Under the guidance of the national strategy, the price of photovoltaic industry chain has rebounded since the second half of this year.
"Upstream links such as polysilicon materials and silicon wafers have achieved initial results, and some enterprises'quarterly reports show that losses have narrowed or turned losses into profits, indicating that the industry is gradually returning to rationality." Ates said.
Tongwei shares disclosed at the performance presentation that the company's polysilicon business has been profitable in the third quarter as the price of polysilicon rebounded in the third quarter and the cost of power factors declined in the wet season. Each component company has different views
on the price trend of downstream components.
Jingke Energy and Jingao Technologies believe that under the positive policy background, component prices have shown an upward trend .
Atlas said: "The downstream component link is affected by the reverse involution of to be released by some policies on the demand side of downstream power plants. "
Meanwhile, Hengdian Dongci said bluntly, If the supply side still maintains the existing relatively sufficient volume, Q4 and the first half of next year's domestic component prices will not rebound too well.
Jingao Technology said: "Affected by the seasonal weakening of terminal demand and holiday factors from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, price support may be under short-term pressure, and the follow-up trend will depend on the effectiveness of the implementation of the anti-involution policy.". It is expected that with the recovery of market demand in the second quarter of next year, component prices are expected to recover . What is the demand of photovoltaic market
next year?
JinkoSolar believes that global PV demand is expected to remain stable next year compared with 2025 .Among them, the domestic market may decline slightly, the European market is expected to grow by 5% , and the Middle East and Latin America markets will grow by 10%-15% . Southeast Asia is expected to see an outbreak of new energy projects, especially photovoltaic projects, with a month-on-month growth of 30% -40% in some countries; the US market is generally stable.
Jingao Technology predicts that the global new installed capacity in 2026 will be between 580-600 GW, of which the domestic new installed capacity is expected to be 270-300 GW. "For next year, the forecasts of various institutions are still growing, but the growth rate has narrowed compared with previous years."
" We expect the global installed capacity to decline in 26 years." Hengdian Dongci explained his point of view, " Due to the high installed capacity in 24 and 25 years in China, the development and construction speed of downstream power plants has slowed down with the decline of power plant revenue, especially the uncertainty of incremental project revenue."; The European market is basically stable, and even if there is growth, it may be single-digit growth ; The U.S. market is expected to rise after the introduction of OBBBA, but with the uncertainty of subsidies and the tightening of other approval policies, the increase is not expected to be too large ; There will be an increase in the Middle East, Africa and other markets, but the increase is not enough to hedge against the decline in major markets. "
this year, JinkoSolar's shipments of energy storage systems were 3.
The company said it was confident of achieving its full-year shipment target of 6G Wh.Moreover, it is expected that the company's energy storage business will have the opportunity to turn around losses in the fourth quarter , and will begin to contribute to profits in 2026.
In addition, Jingke Energy revealed that the company's energy storage team has more than 1000 people, "with the expansion of business, energy storage is expected to become the company's second growth curve."
Atlas expects to achieve a target of 7-9 GWh of energy storage shipments this year.
Trina Solar revealed that it has signed more than 10g Wh of overseas orders , which are expected to be delivered mainly in 2025-2026.
For overseas markets, Sungrow believes that the growth rate of large-scale energy storage projects in Europe will be about 50% in the next three years, and the industrial and commercial reserves in the region are expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth next year; the markets in the Americas, Central and East Africa, Asia-Pacific and Australia will also maintain growth. "Energy storage has changed from the original point-like market to a global situation of full blossom, and the overall growth rate is still relatively fast."
In this regard, companies have maintained a more optimistic forecast for next year's energy storage shipment target.
Atlas said that next year's energy storage shipments are expected to increase significantly compared with this year, while Trina Solar revealed that next year's energy storage shipments are planned to basically double on the basis of this year. The profitability of
overseas energy storage market is more advantageous, which is the consensus of the current industry.
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