At the "2025 Annual Conference of Photovoltaic Industry", Zhong Baoshen, Gao Jifan, Lu Chuan, Gu Yilei and other photovoltaic experts discussed the development opportunities and challenges of the photovoltaic industry and the future trend of the photovoltaic market under the background of double-carbon target and anti-involution.
However, he also said that the most significant disadvantage of photovoltaic is its volatility ." "But this volatility is something that we can take advantage of with power sources,
" overall, In the future, the photovoltaic industry needs to be guided by policies from the following aspects: how to build a new power system architecture in the future, how to manage the power grid at the absorption side and the generation side and how to manage the load at different levels.
Zhong Baoshen predicts that domestic (photovoltaic) demand will stabilize at more than 200 GW. "After a moderate adjustment next year, I think the highs of last year (2024) and this year (2025) will be broken by 2030.". In the next five years, China's (photovoltaic) demand will exceed 300 GW. "
Overseas," in the source network load storage system, photovoltaic as a "source" has a very good advantage. In this situation, many parts of the world (photovoltaic) are still in rapid growth. In fact, this growth is entirely the need of economic development, not the incentive of a policy.
From this point of view, Zhong Baoshen said: "With the development of energy storage, network construction technology and non-electricity consumption, there is still room for photovoltaic to break through 1000 GW, and I think it will happen.". In the next five or six years, the industry will still reach the magnitude of 1000GW.Gu Yilei , Vice Chairman of
Sunshine Power Supply and President of Photovoltaic Storage Group, believes that photovoltaic will become the largest power supply in the next two to three years. "Economy and flexibility are two important advantages I think the photovoltaic industry has."
Gu Yilei said that with years of development, photovoltaic technology stands out among many new energy technology routes, and its cost per kilowatt hour has dropped by more than 90%. "But there is still room for further improvement in the economy of photovoltaics, including component efficiency, and inverters are still moving towards higher voltage and higher power levels." In terms of
At the same time, the development of photovoltaic also brings some challenges, such as the problem of absorption. "The essence of the absorption problem is the mismatch between photovoltaic power generation and power consumption in time and space dimensions."
Gu Yilei said that the time dimension needs more energy storage to balance, "On the one hand, we need to formulate policies to install as much energy storage as possible, on the other hand, how to use the installed energy storage more efficiently, there are also many opportunities to tap." In terms of
space, Gu Yilei said: "To strengthen the delivery mechanism and strengthen the local consumption mechanism, we can try the direction of green power direct connection and source network load storage."
In addition, Gu Yilei thinks: " Network technology is a direction that everybody can develop." "When the penetration rate of new energy sources such as photovoltaics is low, this technology is the icing on the cake.". But now the penetration rate of new energy is high, and the network has become a rigid demand. The competition and challenges brought by the
global trade situation and the reconstruction of industrialization will affect the future trend of the photovoltaic market? This trend has brought pressure to the export of Chinese products, and the overseas market space is facing compression, but at the same time, it has also created new opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of Chinese enterprises.
Faced with the new situation, Gao Jifan believes that Chinese enterprises can explore the cooperation mode of "brand management + comprehensive services" and join hands with overseas enterprises to promote the deep integration of high-level product trade and service trade.
In this process, Chinese enterprises need to firmly grasp two points: one is to control the brand and terminal market, and the other is to adhere to technological innovation and intellectual property rights. Even if overseas enterprises participate in capacity investment, it can be regarded as OEM cooperation in essence, as long as the brand and technology core are in hand, it will not affect the core competitiveness of Chinese enterprises.
Secondly, in the face of trade restrictions imposed by some countries on the grounds of technical security and network information security, it is necessary for relevant domestic institutions and trade associations to jointly voice and actively resolve trade conflicts.
Thirdly, Chinese enterprises need to improve supply chain management by means of technology to achieve traceability and transparency of the whole chain. This can not only show the strength of China's manufacturing industry, but also better reduce the friction in the trade sector.
In view of overseas market competition , Chen Gang , chairman of Aixu Stock Company, launched from two aspects of defense and active attack.
In terms of active attack, Chen Gang proposed that Chinese photovoltaic enterprises could learn from the rare earth industry, strengthen the strength of the whole industry chain with continuous technological innovation, and further widen the gap between cost and energy efficiency with their global counterparts.
However, due to the inconsistent demands of all parties, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises need to reach a consensus to clarify the "degree of self-discipline" and "reasonable threshold", which is the first step to promote the development of industry norms, followed by regulatory landing.
Zhong Baoshen believes that in the process of anti-involution, the implementation of self-discipline should be coordinated with "supporting innovation, supporting excellence and leading by standards" in order to achieve practical results.
Zhong Baoshen believes that the next step is to raise the market access threshold through standard guidance, and only products that meet certain technical standards and quality standards can enter the market, while production capacity below the standard is not allowed.
With regard to supporting the superior and the strong, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises may promote the optimization of the industry structure through mergers and reorganizations, the integration of shares, acquisitions and mergers, or hierarchical governance.
In addition, China's photovoltaic enterprises should continue to support technological innovation.
"The photovoltaic industry urgently needs to break the past development inertia and shift from excessive competition to coordinated development and healthy competition." In this regard, Trina Solar Chairman Gao Jifan put forward three suggestions:
first, for the main industrial chain of silicon materials, wafers, batteries, components, production should be based on demand, avoid blind production, horizontal coordination;
second, vertical coordination. The involution management of the entire photovoltaic industry should restore profitability, covering all links such as silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, components, accessories, etc., rather than a single link of profitability;
Third, the construction of intellectual property rights should be coordinated. Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, suggested that the industry establish a patent pool model to promote reasonable fees for patented enterprises and fees for non-patented enterprises. How can
photovoltaic industry maintain a healthy and stable electricity market?
"Compared with domestic and foreign markets, first of all, I think China's power industry should be more market-oriented as well as foreign countries in order to be healthier ."
Gu Yilei said that the marketization of electricity in foreign countries (some regions) is transmitted to the upstream links through the market-oriented rise and fall of terminal electricity prices, so as to rationalize the cost and price of each link. At present, China's electricity market needs to take into account factors such as people's livelihood and enterprises, the degree of marketization is not high, and the change of terminal price is difficult to transmit upward, so it is necessary to make some attempts to change the transmission mechanism in the direction of a more market-oriented mechanism.
Second, " the continuity of some relevant domestic policies is not strong enough". Gu Yilei said frankly that there is uncertainty in the return of power plant investment, which also brings great confusion to investors, hoping to improve in this respect in the future.
"Thirdly, compared with traditional thermal power, photovoltaic and wind power can bring more environmental value, which should be more guaranteed in the mechanism, so as to be more scientific and reasonable."
in China that the non-technical cost of photovoltaic power plants is very high. A photovoltaic project generates electricity for only a few hours a day, which is very concentrated. The capacity of the supporting booster station is only around 10 noon in a day, which will reach the highest level, and most of the rest of the time is idle. Overseas (some markets) will now basically do comprehensive energy transformation in front of the same booster station, such as applying for the installation of wind power.
Take Portugal as an example. The average hours of wind power in Portugal are about 2400 to 3200 hours. Fixed bracket photovoltaic hours are 1700 hours, and eventually 2000 hours, and their time overlap rate is only about 15%. If a part of energy storage is added, the power hours output by the grid-connected point can basically reach 4400 to 4800 hours or even 5000 hours a year. In this way, the normal distribution of the electricity output by this power supply point is relatively uniform throughout the 24 hours of the day, and when participating in electricity trading, the return of this asset package is very good.
At present, our domestic situation is that photovoltaic power stations are always photovoltaic power stations. As more and more photovoltaic power stations are installed, the electricity price at that time on the same day is always the lowest. It is certainly impossible to solve this problem. If we can allow the power supply point to do some comprehensive energy transformation, we can better balance the problem of electricity price and income.
Second, speed up the technological transformation of some stock photovoltaic power plants. For example, Zhejiang Province has carried out technical renovation of some photovoltaic stock projects, especially distributed photovoltaic. Because the component efficiency of the old power station is relatively low, after another ten years, the whole attenuation is relatively severe. Zhejiang has given some support policies for technological transformation, which can be replaced by today's new components, on the one hand, to stimulate domestic demand. On the other hand, the original capacity of the power station that has completed the technical transformation is based on the original policy, and the new capacity is based on the market transaction. In fact, this is how Japan deals with the old FIT and the new power station. But it saves a lot of non-technical costs, so the benefits of the power station are much better than before.
Lu Chuan said: "This model can also be promoted in some areas of China where the economy is particularly developed and the electricity consumption is relatively high.". First, it can directly increase the demand for photovoltaic products. The second is actually a relatively good improvement in the revenue of the power station. At the same time, the government is also a promotion program to replace the old with the new.
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