1. Overview
of the national and regional market (I) National market: The market is weak in the off-season, and the regional demand is low and the price is down
. In June, the national cement market continued to be weak in the off-season. Due to the high temperature and rainy season, the shutdown of the high school entrance examination and the financial pressure, the downstream construction recovered slowly. Demand is generally weak. At the same time, the inventory of enterprises in many places has risen rapidly after the end of peak staggering production, and the impact of low-price cement across regions has been superimposed, and the market price has been under pressure, showing the characteristics of "pushing up the fatigue and falling in the dark". At the beginning of June, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) was 115.02 points, closing at 111.78 points at the end of the month, down 3.18% from the previous month and 5.00% from the previous year.
From the perspective of regional demand, the six regions are still light. The plum rains in East China suppressed the demand, and the Yangtze River Delta fell back across the board after rising, with some markets making up for the fall of 10-30 yuan/ton; the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in North China failed to push up for many times, and the prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia were dragged down by the shrinking demand; the Northeast region staggered peak and stopped kilns to support the high frequency of shouting up, but the transaction was light, resulting in the expansion of the dark drop space; The price of Ningxia in the northwest region reached below the cost line, forming a "depression effect", and the price of Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang declined under pressure; the price of Guangdong and Guangxi in the central and southern regions reached the bottom, with a cumulative drop of 60 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and a premature rise in Hubei and Hunan; the price of Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guizhou in the southwest region dropped by 10-40 yuan/ton, and only the Xizang was tentatively raised by the external drive.
On the whole, under the dual pressure of sustained poor demand and generally high inventory, the weak situation at the bottom of the national cement price continues. Figure
1 and Figure 2: National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) and Cement Price Index (CEMPI) K-line
Chart in June 2025 Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Cost. At the end of June, the average spot price of 5500 kcal steam coal was 625 yuan/ton, up 0.32% annually and down 27.24% year-on-year. From the demand side, the high temperature weather drove the increase in coal consumption for power generation, but the high inventory suppressed the demand for replenishment of power plants. The trend of coal price first decreased and then stabilized, and the overall operation was at a low level. At the end of the month, the cost of coal per ton of cement was about 61.19 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2 yuan/ton compared with the end of May, and the cost pressure increased slightly. At the end of June, the cost price difference between cement and coal was 228.85 yuan/ton, down 4.08% from the previous month, and the price difference between cement and coal continued to narrow. In terms of
benefits, the average cost of coal per ton of cement in June was 60.81 yuan/ton, which was 1.09 yuan/ton less than that in May. The average cost of coal per ton of cement continued to decline. The average price of cement in June was 347.47 yuan/ton, which was 13.69 yuan/ton lower than that in May. The decline of cement price was greater than that of coal cost. It is expected that the cement profit situation in June will deteriorate to a certain extent compared with that in May.
Figure 3: Cement price, coal cost and price difference in May 2025 (yuan/ton)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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