This week, the average price of N-type rod silicon market rose slightly. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, the recent monthly output of silicon materials is basically maintained at a relatively stable state of about 100,000 tons, which basically matches the demand, and there is no new inventory pressure. Secondly, the relevant departments of the state have taken many measures simultaneously, including promoting the structural adjustment of the supply side to create a "community of industrial destiny", and strictly controlling the involution competition of "selling below cost price", grasping both supply and price, and the market is expected to improve. Third, the average price of polysilicon dropped to 38000 yuan/ton in mid-May 2024, which has been running below the average cost of the industry for more than a year. In the first half of this year, four enterprises have stopped production one after another. Since 2024, the total number of enterprises that have stopped production has reached nine. Under the pressure of long-term losses, this week, the market's positive signal superimposed supply and demand has slowed down. Promote the price of polysilicon to rise tentatively and rationally.
This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding was 340-38000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34700 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.87%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon is 3300-34000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is maintained at 33500 yuan/ton.
This week, the silicon material market showed signs of warming up. Although the vast majority of enterprises did not have a large number of new orders, on the one hand, some orders suspended in the early stage were re-traded at a higher price than expected after negotiation this week. On the other hand, a small number of orders from individual enterprises were traded at a higher price this week, so the average price of polysilicon market showed a slight upward trend this week. Polysilicon prices rose slightly this week, mainly due to three reasons: First, the recent monthly output of silicon materials basically maintained a relatively stable state of about 100,000 tons, basically matching demand, and there was no new inventory pressure. Secondly, the relevant departments of the state have taken many measures simultaneously, including promoting the structural adjustment of the supply side to create a "community of industrial destiny", and strictly controlling the involution competition of "selling below cost price", grasping both supply and price, and the market is expected to be better. Third, the average price of polysilicon dropped to 38000 yuan/ton in mid-May 2024, which has been running below the average cost of the industry for more than a year. In the first half of this year, four enterprises have stopped production one after another. Since 2024, the total number of enterprises that have stopped production has reached nine. Under the pressure of long-term losses, this week, the market's positive signal superimposed supply and demand has slowed down. Promote the price of polysilicon to rise tentatively and rationally.
As of this week, the number of domestic polysilicon enterprises in production has been reduced to 9, and 2 new enterprises have been shut down for maintenance this month, and there is no clear plan to resume production. According to the statistics of the Silicon Branch, the domestic polysilicon output in June was about 102,000
tons, which was basically the same as the ring ratio, and basically matched the demand, with no new inventory accumulation. In the first half of this year, domestic output totaled about 596000 tons, a sharp decrease of 44.1% over the same period last year. According to the production operation and production scheduling plan of polysilicon enterprises, the output of silicon materials in July is expected to be in the range of 103-110000 tons. The increment is mainly concentrated in a small amount of output from the production lines of individual enterprises in Sichuan, Xinjiang and Qinghai, while the decrease in the same period is reflected in the gradual return to zero of the output of two new maintenance enterprises this month. According to the global installed capacity forecast in 2025, the global demand for polysilicon in the whole year is about 1.4 million tons (excluding the inventory of each link), and the domestic demand is about 1.3 million tons. On the premise that domestic silicon enterprises have no increase in production, the annual output of polysilicon is expected to be around 1.2 million tons, and the inventory in the second half of the year will be about 100,000 tons. If the increment of polysilicon production is included, the annual output is expected to be 8% higher than expected, and the pressure of supply and demand of silicon materials will escalate again in the second half of the year. Therefore, in the current extreme predicament of the whole industrial chain, the first thing to do is to strictly control the increment of production capacity, and the second is to speed up the withdrawal of backward production capacity through the energy consumption and quality advantages of enterprises, the energy consumption and quality standards of the state, so as to fundamentally solve the contradiction between supply and demand, and ultimately solve the contradiction between supply and demand. Make the price of each link of the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry chain return to rationality.
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