first half of 2025, influenced by multiple factors such as market competition and policy changes, 23: The issuance of the two major policies of "distributed According to Digital New Energy DataBM. Prices rose and fell in the first quarter, and returned to the low level at the beginning of the year in the middle of the year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday at the beginning of the year, component prices continued to operate at a low level under pressure. Stimulated by the policy, from the end of February to March, the "430" and "531" nodes brought about a concentrated outbreak of pre-demand, pushing prices into the upward channel. During the "rush to install" period from mid- March to mid-April , the price of all-model components climbed to its peak and formed a short high platform period . Since late April, with the narrowing of the "rush to install" window, demand has gradually declined, superimposed market wait-and-see sentiment has spread, and the market has once again opened a rapid downward cycle. By early June, leading manufacturers had tried to raise prices slightly, but the rally failed to continue due to insufficient support from terminal demand. In late June, the market went down again, and the prices of TOPCon and HJT components were close to the level at the beginning of the year. However, The boom did not last long. Since late April, the ebb of demand has exceeded expectations, manufacturers and channel providers have accumulated stocks , and the volume of orders has shrunk while the quotation has declined. After the SNEC exhibition in June and the construction stagnation in East China in the rainy season, the distributed market entered a flat wait-and-see period. Centralized demand is declining month by month. According to Digital New Energy DataBM. In the second quarter, many centralized procurement projects were suspended due to policy fluctuations , such as the termination of 51 GW centralized procurement of China Power Construction and 26. Meanwhile, the bidding volume in the second quarter dropped by about 82% compared with the previous quarter. in June , the industry's production schedule fell back to 45-50GW , but the rate of production reduction was significantly slower than contraction of demand, which directly led to the rise of inventory level. Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: Can Large Base Grid Connection + Overseas Breakthrough Reverse the Dilemma of "Involution"? According to Digital New Energy DataBM, the core driving force comes from two aspects- domestic centralized demand and overseas market expansion . Scenery base project will enter the centralized delivery period, and the National Development and Reform Commission has made it clear that the 50GW + project will be connected to the grid in 2025, with Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang bases as the main force, which will support the rebound of centralized demand. In addition, since the middle of the year, many large domestic component manufacturers have adjusted their sales strategies, gradually increased their efforts to expand overseas markets, increased shipments to overseas markets, and then reduced the supply of domestic markets, to a certain extent, alleviated the mismatch between supply and demand in the domestic market, which is conducive to price stability and repair. It is worth noting that the action of "breaking the involution" (production reduction/production restriction order, anti-vicious bidding convention, special conference …) Initial landing, superimposed on the rigid support of component costs, the downward price space is expected to gradually narrow in July-August, short-term low volatility. It is expected that from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4, the rebalancing of supply and demand will push the price of PV modules to bottom out.
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