After years of high platform period, the cement industry has revealed a clear "chill" in the past two years due to factors such as overcapacity, low demand, cost pressure and intensified competition. In 2023, the cement industry continued to decline in 2022, the industry profit contracted sharply, the total profit fell 54.8% year-on-year, only 30 billion, the loss of enterprises expanded, and the survival and development of small and medium-sized enterprises were facing major challenges. Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in
2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation? "For 2024, we believe that the overall market pressure is still high, but the downward trend will be weakened." Looking ahead to the cement industry in 2024, Li Kunming, a cement analyst at China Cement Network Big Data Research Institute, said bluntly. On
the supply side, Li Kunming said that more than 28 new lines (42 million tons of capacity) are planned to be put into operation in 2024. Although the actual progress may still be less than expected, the contradiction of industry surplus will become more acute under the background of downward demand. On the
demand side, under the constraints of land transaction and new construction area decline, real estate investment will continue to be weak, cement demand on the real estate side will continue to decline, and infrastructure will continue to develop under the policy of "steady growth", but the demand for cement will weaken marginally, and it is difficult to hedge the decline in demand caused by the weakness of real estate, Li Kunming predicted. Cement production will drop to 2 billion tons in 2024, breaking the plateau.
In addition to the contradiction between supply and demand, the problem of weakening the effectiveness of peak staggering production has been discussed by the industry. Li Kunming pointed out that as the core measure of supply-side reform, peak-staggering production has played an important role in regulating the supply-demand relationship of the industry and maintaining price stability. Since 2022, in the face of declining industry demand and fierce market competition, peak staggering efforts have been intensified with little effect, and this effect is expected to continue in 2024.
Overall, Li Kunming believes that under the serious constraints of weak demand and excess, the average price of cement in 2024 will still decline compared with 2023, and the profit of cement business in the industry will further decline. Will the acceleration of carbon market construction bring new vitality to the cement industry in
2024? How can cement enterprises make breakthroughs in new energy, digital upgrading and energy-saving transformation? On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the " 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou, during which awards will be given to top 100 cement and supplier enterprises, and experts and scholars will be invited. China Railway and other construction units jointly discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future! At the meeting, Li Kunming will give a brilliant speech on the development trend of the cement industry. Sign up as soon as possible!
