At present, the dual factors of serious overcapacity of cement production and sharp decline in market demand have led to the loss of most enterprises and the extremely difficult economic operation of the industry. In order to promote the cement industry to get rid of difficulties, increase efficiency and operate healthily, Some people in the industry suggest that cement enterprises should be controlled by administrative means < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/Price_list-1-s0-e0-p0-c0-k100059-b0." that the starting point and desire of the proposal are good, but whether it will work and the problems it will cause. It is open to question. The author talks about a few views and exchanges and discussions with people in the industry.
1. Brief review of the development process and lessons of new dry process cement In
2000, the actual proportion of new dry process cement in China was about 8%. In < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/brandnewslist-1-1000026.2006
year", the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Special Plan for the Development of Cement Industry (No.2222). It is predicted that the demand in 2015 will be 12. Only two years later, the actual output in 2008 was nearly 1.4 billion tons, and in 2013, it has exceeded 2.4 billion tons, which is 1.1 billion tons higher than the demand in 2020 predicted in the Plan. In 2009, "Guo Fa No.38 Document" pointed out that in 2008, the production capacity of the new dry process was 1.1 billion tons. It was judged that the production capacity was seriously excessive at that time, and the approval authority of the cement project was approved by the provinces and municipalities and approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (it is understood that after October 2009, only one cement project was approved by the relevant state departments). According to statistics, the average annual output of cement in China from 2012 to 2021 is as high as 23. In 2009, the proportion of new dry process cement in Hunan was less than 30%, while in 2013 it reached 90%.
From the above facts and data, it can be concluded that: firstly, it shows that the judgment and prediction of the relevant situation in the relevant documents at that time are obviously inaccurate; secondly, it fully proves that the power of market allocation of resources is very strong, and the effect or consequence of administrative intervention in industrial capacity is not satisfactory. As emphasized by Miao Wei, then Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2014, "The fundamental reason for the serious overcapacity is that the relationship between the government and the market has not been properly handled. The two problems of excessive government intervention in the market and inadequate regulatory services exist at the same time. To resolve the contradiction of overcapacity, we must fundamentally deepen the reform in an all-round way, and we must clarify the boundaries between the government and the market..". Can we conclude that it is so important to respect the law of market development for the introduction of any policy and reform measures.
Second, the output of products is determined by demand, and the total output can not be controlled.
As far as a province is concerned, it is impossible to control its annual production (demand), because the output is determined by demand. Through investigation and discussion, it is believed that from the point of view of restoring sales price, the key is that industries and enterprises should adjust balanced production according to market demand, that is, enterprises should control monthly output or warehouse location. The daily output is the factor affecting the monthly output, but the number of days of start-up has a greater impact and weight. Under
the current market situation, the actual annual output of cement clinker in most enterprises can not exceed the so-called record capacity or design capacity. Therefore, in the case of serious overcapacity, controlling the annual output of clinker in enterprises has no effect within the scope of design (filing) capacity, and it is impossible to produce the effectiveness of policy tools.
Taking Hunan as an example, due to cost and competitiveness problems, most of the 2500 tons of production lines in the province have stopped kilns and purchased clinker from 5000 tons of production lines to produce cement. According to the statistical analysis of relevant enterprise groups, the clinker production capacity being produced in the province is still about twice as high as the actual market demand. It is considered that the difference between the statistical data of the industry and the actual output is too large to be analyzed here.
According to preliminary estimates, the average number of days of kiln shutdown in Hunan Province this year will be close to 190 days, and the utilization rate of production capacity (operation) will be less than 50%. Under the situation that the market supply is still excessive and more and more serious, if enterprises are required to organize production within the scope of the registered daily production scale, although it seems to limit the release of part of the production capacity, enterprises can stabilize the market share by increasing the production days, I. E. monthly output.
Third, there is no basis for restricting the daily output of clinker in enterprises, and its legality and compliance need to be discussed, and it is even more difficult to operate and manage.
Due to technological progress, EIA approval authority and division of labor, the actual production capacity of most new dry process kilns in the cement industry has generally exceeded the design or record capacity for many years. Eco-environmental departments focus on supervising enterprises to meet the emission standards (currently implementing ultra-low emission standards, emission values of unit products or flue gas pollutants) and total pollution emissions (less than the permitted amount approved by emission permits). Enterprises that meet the above two requirements are usually regarded as compliant production and operation, and environmental protection departments basically have no supervision over daily output. This has been the case for many years.
For example, the project production line (a large number) which was built 20, 30 or even 40 years ago and has obtained all the legal license procedures, only because the daily output exceeds the design or record capacity (the aforementioned annual output can not exceed the design capacity), requires enterprises to formulate capacity replacement plans for the so-called excess daily capacity (the general behavior of the industry). It will lead to a series of problems. After completing the procedures for capacity replacement, the relevant departments will certainly require enterprises to complete the procedures for environmental assessment and energy assessment. Controlling the clinker output of enterprises
in this way means that the new dry process enterprises that declare legal compliance at present will have major problems in legal compliance production in the future, which is no different from a "shock" to the dry process enterprises that are legal compliance at present, and will have a great negative impact on the whole industry. Artificial restriction of equipment production not only violates scientific laws, but also increases the total cost of cement clinker production (including administrative costs). Is such a "new policy" worth it.
For example, it is necessary to improve the EIA procedures, involving environmental capacity, etc., regardless of the economic burden and the difficulty of evaluation brought to enterprises. Another example is to require enterprises to supplement and improve the energy assessment procedures, it can be said that most enterprises can not do, such a large number of industry enterprises, energy consumption base is higher, where to find or buy coal consumption alternative indicators?! Will it cause chaos?
At present, there is still no unified method to verify the actual clinker production capacity, how to verify the actual clinker production capacity? The actual daily output is verified by the thermal calibration method (requiring instrumentation and time-consuming and labor-consuming)? Operability? What are the means? Only a very small number of enterprise investment projects requiring government approval have been retained. In 2013, all building materials investment projects were subject to record management. The so-called record means notification and filing. The process technology, market and investment benefits of the project were decided by the investors independently, and the land use, energy assessment and environmental assessment of the investment project were reviewed and approved by the relevant departments in accordance with the relevant laws and regulations.
4. It is suggested to formulate the "Measures for Verification of Actual Capacity of Cement Kilns" or standards, improve the
current "Measures for Replacement of Cement Glass Capacity" and "Measures for Replacement of Cement Capacity", "The actual capacity of the project is calculated and determined according to the conversion table of cement clinker capacity", and fill in the actual capacity of the cement clinker production line list. At present, the capacity converted by kiln diameter is not the actual capacity.
In addition to the internal or relocation of group enterprises and the transformation of joint lines, it is difficult to implement market-oriented and cross-regional cement production capacity replacement projects in the future. In addition to the impact of investment return factors, the main obstacles are that energy consumption and emission indicators can not be transferred with capacity indicators, as well as the strict constraints of energy consumption dual-control policies, and the implementation of strict reduction or equivalent substitution policies for energy consumption and emission (capacity) indicators.
It is suggested to improve and adjust the list of production lines and the division of related capacity projects, revise and adjust them to "record (approved) capacity, design capacity (converted capacity), actual capacity", and adjust the original design capacity column of capacity replacement scheme to "design capacity, record (approved) capacity". The definition of production capacity is based on the common understanding and practice in the industry for many years, that is, actual production capacity refers to daily operation or actual production capacity. Through the above modification, the concept, definition and classification of production capacity are more rigorous, and the relationship between them is clear and consistent with the actual situation.
Without a unified "cement kiln actual capacity verification method", the so-called tracking management, supervision and inspection of production capacity, spot checks are difficult to operate and implement, and the workload is large and professional.
Local building materials (cement) associations should strengthen basic work such as statistics, and collect clinker output through statistics of associations at all levels. Under the current circumstances, relying on the efforts of trade associations themselves is a reliable way to improve the accuracy of relevant data and grasp the real situation.
5. To promote the healthy and orderly operation of the cement industry, it is necessary to coordinate efforts, rely on industry and other departments to guide and supervise services, give full play to the coordination and guidance role of associations at all levels, and strengthen enterprise self-discipline.
First of all, it is imperative to coordinate with relevant departments to strengthen supervision in accordance with existing laws and regulations, seriously investigate and punish vicious and unfair competition, severely stop and punish illegal activities such as sales below cost, so as to maintain and ensure the most basic conditions for the operation of the industry and reverse the severe situation of serious losses in the industry as soon as possible.
Secondly, we should strive for the support of ecological environment and other departments, and the environmental protection department should issue monthly total pollutant control indicators to clinker enterprises, and strengthen supervision and inspection. With the cooperation of associations at all levels and the provision of technical and data support and other specific work, the enterprises shall first declare themselves, and the associations at all levels shall summarize and coordinate and put forward the proposed indicators for monthly total control, which shall be submitted to the ecological environment department for implementation.
Thirdly, we should strive for the support of superior leaders and relevant departments, give trade associations the responsibilities of industry operation coordination and industry self-discipline services, and give full play to the role of associations in the steady growth and operation monitoring of building materials industry, energy saving and emission reduction.
Fourthly, dumping at low prices and selling below cost are acts of unfair competition, so we must strengthen supervision and investigation, and play a "combination punch" to extricate the cement industry from difficulties and increase efficiency. Following the law, using economic and legal means, improving technical regulations such as emission reduction and strict supervision are the only way to resolve overcapacity.
