market situation was extremely severe, some provinces intensified the market competition chaos such as "internal strife" and "external fleeing". In a chaotic situation, the performance of the cement industry in Hunan Province is somewhat "good", although the "performance" is not good, but the "rules" of behavior, not too much mixed with the "price war" of other surrounding provinces. According to the situation of
"self-produced and self-sold"
in the whole province, the cement market in Hunan Province in 2023 generally showed the characteristics of "insufficient demand, new low price and falling volume and price", and the downward time of cement price was longer than that of last year. Overall, it is lower than the same period last year. Weak demand rebounded in the first quarter, low demand in the second and third quarters, low peak season, cement market prices repeatedly hit new lows, even fell below the cost line, stabilized and rebounded in the fourth quarter. Influenced by factors such as increased supply, poor demand recovery, financial pressure, lower cost and intensified competition, the overall price of cement market fell in 2023.
From the K-line chart of cement prices in Hunan tracked by China Cement Network, it can be seen that in 2023, the overall downward trend of cement prices in Hunan is obvious, which is now the lowest level in the last five years. In terms
of sub-urban areas, the cement production capacity of Hunan Province can be described as "all cities have". In addition to Jishou (no clinker production line) and Yueyang (only one clinker production line in Linxiang Conch), from Changde and Yiyang in northern Hunan to Hengyang, Chenzhou and Yongzhou in southern Hunan, and then to Loudi and Shaoyang in central Hunan, there are cement production lines of different scales, and the production capacity of cement clinker in each city is relatively "balanced". In terms of
price, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area, as a key development area in Hunan Province, is also the main focus of cement demand, and the price of cement is relatively high. "In the whole province, the price of cement in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area is slightly higher." Local cement enterprises in Hunan said that the central and southern cement market in Changsha region has strong control, firmly blocking the inflow of foreign cement, and the market is relatively stable.
In addition, affected by the overall market decline, the price gap between Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and other urban areas is narrowing in 2023. "Prices in Hunan Province are low, and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan is not much higher, so everyone is basically local'self-produced and self-sold '." Feedback from many cement enterprises in Hunan.
In terms of geographical location, Hunan Province is adjacent to Jiangxi Province in the east, Chongqing City and Guizhou Province in the west, Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the south, and Hubei Province in the north. Data tracked by
China Cement Network show that among Hunan and all the neighboring provinces mentioned above, the average price of cement in Hunan Province is the lowest in 2023, but there is no sign of excessive outflow of "low-price" cement in Hunan Province.
"Previously, a small amount of cement from Hunan Province would flow into Guangdong, but this phenomenon is much less in 2023." An industry insider in Hunan said.
On the one hand, it is determined by the terrain characteristics. The landform outline of Hunan Province is surrounded by mountains in the east, south and west. The hills and hills in the middle are undulating. The lake basin plain in the north is spread out. The fertile fields are thousands of miles. It is an asymmetric horseshoe-shaped terrain opening to the northeast. The characteristics of mountains in the east, south and west also make the outflow of Hunan cement more difficult.
On the other hand, although the average price of cement in Hunan is the lowest, the price difference with the surrounding provinces is not large, such as about 20 yuan/ton with the average price of cement in Jiangxi and Guangxi, even compared with the slightly higher price in Guangdong, the average price is only about 40 yuan/ton. The price difference is not big, so that the outflow of cement in Hunan Province lacks a little confidence and confidence.
Of course, in the past few years, there has been a phenomenon of "price war" and cement outflow in Hunan Province, but in the scene of "chaos" in most provinces of the country in 2023, Hunan Province does appear to be "clever and cautious".
Just like when I was a student, there were always a few students in the class who had poor academic performance, but they listened carefully in class and did not affect others after class. I just don't know how long Hunan's "clever and cautious" will last if the cement market continues to deteriorate?
