the 14th Five-Year Plan is extremely unusual and extraordinary. In 2023, affected by the continuous adjustment of real estate, the demand for cement has further declined, the problem of overcapacity has become more prominent, and the whole industry is under high pressure. For the cement industry, 2023 is an unforgettable year, half confused and half sad. How to walk in the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan of the cement industry has been placed in front of us.
Cement industry as a typical cyclical industry, the downward inflection point has arrived, 2023 is only the beginning of a long "severe winter" has become the consensus of the industry. How should cement enterprises respond? How should the cement industry develop next? The development of
cement industry is closely related to the national economic and social development. Through the analysis of the Assessment Report, we can get a glimpse of the development direction and prospects of the cement industry in the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan.
With the increase of investment, the demand market is expected to stabilize
. The root cause of the above problems in the cement industry is overcapacity, which is relative to the lack of demand. Capacity removal is the top priority, but stable demand is also the key to promote the industry's improvement. According to
the Assessment Report, 102 major projects have been steadily promoted and strongly supported the development of key areas. Of the 102 major projects, 96 were in line with expectations and 6 were basically in line with expectations, which strongly supported the implementation of strategic tasks in related fields. However, due to the decline in the ability of local governments to invest and the lack of solid work in the early stage of some projects, the construction progress of some major projects has been affected to some extent. This also directly affects the market demand for cement.
In order to solve the above problems, the assessment report proposes the following measures:
focus on expanding domestic demand to ensure accelerated economic recovery and maintain stable growth. We will vigorously expand effective investment space, stimulate the vitality of private investment, and better play the leading role of government investment;
we will strive to promote regional coordination and the integration of urban and rural development, and expand new space for high-quality development. New breakthroughs have been made in promoting the development of the western region, the comprehensive revitalization of the Northeast, the rise of the central region and the development of the eastern region, and supporting the development of special types of regions. We will accelerate the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, strive to improve the level of urbanization in potential areas, cultivate and develop a number of modern metropolitan areas, and build livable, resilient and smart cities. We will better support rigid and improved housing demand, accelerate the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both emergency and emergency use, and the transformation of villages in cities, and promote the establishment of a new model for the development of the real estate industry. Measures such as the development of
the western region, the comprehensive revitalization of the Northeast, infrastructure construction and the transformation of villages in the city will bring about a large amount of investment and a huge demand for cement. This will undoubtedly be a "sweet rain" for the "long drought" cement industry.
Therefore, cement enterprises should be more rational, while focusing on expanding domestic demand, ensuring accelerated economic recovery and maintaining stable growth, vigorously expand effective investment space, stimulate the vitality of private investment, and better play the leading role of government investment. We will increase investment support for future industrial development, transformation of traditional industries, new infrastructure and tackling key core technologies, seize the opportunity when demand is expected to stabilize, accelerate the transformation of traditional industries, and meet market demand with high quality.
Energy conservation, carbon reduction and emission reduction will continue to be important tasks
. According to the results of industrial energy conservation monitoring issued by many provinces this year and the announcement of the energy consumption quota per unit product of cement enterprises, the energy consumption level of many cement enterprises is not up to the standard, and the energy conservation level of the industry is unsatisfactory; In
April 2023, eleven departments, including the National Standardization Management Committee, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the Guidelines for the Construction of Carbon Neutralization Standard System for Carbon Peak, and in October, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the Notice on the Reporting and Verification of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Enterprises in Some Key Industries from 2023 to 2025. In November, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the National Carbon Peak Pilot Construction Plan, and on November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued opinions on speeding up the establishment of a product carbon footprint management system. At present, the cement industry has reached the peak of carbon, and it is still a long way to go to achieve carbon neutralization. On November 15,
2023, Huang Runqiu, Minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, chaired the executive meeting of the Ministry, deliberated and adopted in principle the Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emission in Cement Industry. It can be expected that the document "Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emission in Cement Industry" will be officially issued soon, and the work of ultra-low emission in cement industry will be carried out in an all-round way;
At the same time, the main measures to further promote the implementation of the Outline in the Evaluation Report mentioned that efforts should be made to overcome difficulties and achieve the main objectives and targets. It is necessary to further improve the policy of energy consumption and carbon emission intensity control for the restrictive indicators such as the reduction of energy consumption
per unit GDP, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP, and the ratio of days with good air quality in cities at prefecture level and above. We will resolutely curb the blind launching of projects with high energy consumption, high emissions and low levels, strictly and reasonably control the total coal consumption, vigorously promote energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation in key areas, and accelerate the implementation of key emission reduction projects for major pollutants.
Efforts should be made to strengthen pollution control and carbon emission control, and consolidate and expand the momentum of ecological environment quality. Accelerate the green transformation of development mode, comprehensively promote the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure, energy structure and transportation structure, and promote the conservation and intensive use of various resources. We will unswervingly fulfill our commitment to carbon peak and carbon neutralization, adhere to independent action, scientifically adjust and optimize policies and measures, promote the gradual shift from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution actions, do a good job in energy conservation at a higher level and with higher quality, and continuously consolidate and enhance the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem.
It can be seen that energy saving, carbon reduction and emission reduction should still be the important work contents of the cement industry in the future. In the newly released Catalogue of Guidance for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 edition), the substitution and co-disposal technology of cement raw materials and fuels will be adopted; Calcining cement with green hydrogen < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/Price_list-1-s0-e0-p0-c0-k100059-b0. actively implements the national industrial structure adjustment policy." Focusing on energy saving and consumption reduction, practicing the vision of "double carbon" and grasping environmental benefits are the only way to realize the survival of cement enterprises and the high-quality development of cement industry.
The market environment is more open and iron needs more hard
cement industry with strong regional characteristics. Cement enterprises, as major taxpayers, are often "fragrant baboons" of local governments, and are vulnerable to "hidden preferences" in policies or markets. With the slowdown of economic growth, "local protection" has become a means of "ensuring" economic development to a certain extent, which is obviously harmful to market construction and the healthy development of the industry. The
cement industry's inadequate work to resolve the serious overcapacity is a major problem affecting the healthy development of the cement industry. In 2023, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cement market intensified, cement production hit a new low in nearly 13 years, and a "price war" broke out all over the country. < a href = "The Evaluation Report of the https://price.ccement.
points out one of the main problems and challenges facing the implementation of the Outline: the high-standard market system is still not perfect." Trade barriers, local protection and regional segmentation, and low-level vicious competition still exist to varying degrees. The main measures to
further promote the implementation of the Outline require efforts to deepen market-oriented reform and institutional opening, and effectively enhance the motive force and vitality of development. We should improve the market access system and strengthen anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition. The market environment of the cement industry will become more open
as the country further promotes the construction of a first-class business environment of marketization, legalization and internationalization. Cement enterprises need to focus on energy saving, carbon reduction, emission reduction and cost control, constantly strengthen their own strength, participate in market competition, and win a place in the market. After clearly putting forward the main measures to further promote the implementation of the Outline,
the Evaluation Report points out that it is of great significance and glorious mission to do a good job in the implementation of the Outline. We will unite more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as its core to ensure the completion of the objectives and tasks of the Outline. In the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the cement industry should focus on strengthening energy conservation, carbon reduction and emission reduction , and must strengthen confidence. In the first half of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the expected reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP, and the ratio of days with good air quality in cities at prefecture level and above will be completed.
