Recently, Shanxi Building Materials Industry Association issued the implementation plan of peak staggering production in Shanxi cement industry from 2024 to 2025. The Plan requires that the off-peak production time in non-heating season (spring, summer and autumn) should not be less than 80 days, and the off-peak production time in heating season should be 120 days, adding up to no less than 200 days. Can Shanxi cement achieve a balance between supply and demand when the kiln is shut down for 200 days
a year? Let's calculate from the supply and demand side:
Supply side: According to the statistics of China Cement Network on the clinker production capacity of various provinces and cities , Shanxi's daily clinker production capacity (design capacity) is 180,000 tons, and 200 days of kiln shutdown is equivalent to only 165 days of annual production. It can produce nearly 30 million tons of clinker in 165 days. Considering 1.3 times overproduction, the actual annual clinker output of Shanxi can reach 39 million tons, and the actual cement production is about 58.2 million tons (the clinker coefficient is calculated according to 0.67).
Demand side: In 2023, the annual cement output of Shanxi was 46.6 million tons. According to the 5% decline, the demand for cement in Shanxi this year may be maintained at around 44 million tons. In the case of 200 days of
shutdown, the actual production capacity of Shanxi cement is still about 58.2 million tons, far greater than the demand of 44 million tons. Therefore, even if the kilns in Shanxi are stopped for 200 days, the supply is still greater than the demand. How many days should the
whole province stop to achieve the balance of supply and demand in the province?
The author roughly calculated that if the actual production capacity of cement is maintained at about 44 million tons, Shanxi cement enterprises can only produce 125 days, which means that the kiln will be shut down for 240 days a year!
