Since the implementation of the new regulations on capacity replacement for one month, coupled with the standardization of capacity management in the cement industry, there have been many projects to supplement the capacity of existing production lines. It is necessary to supplement the production capacity of the production line which was originally "built in batches" during the construction of the project. How much should I make up? From the point of view that the investor has the right to decide independently, it is the responsibility of the investor. But because of the fraud, the administrative department had to intervene. The conversion of kiln diameter corresponding to production capacity is an example. Now the new regulation decouples the kiln diameter from the production capacity, and according to the principle of "who invests, who makes decisions, who makes profits, who takes risks", it also gives enterprises the right to make their own decisions on investment.
With the development of new technology, the promotion of intellectualization, the improvement of enterprise technology and management level, and the factors that the design originally left a certain margin, the actual production capacity of the production line is higher than design capacity. Of course, enterprises can choose to organize production according to the original design capacity, or re-record the production capacity of the production line, and organize production according to the new record capacity after going through relevant procedures. In March
2023, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Issuing the Outline and Explanation of the Feasibility Study Report of Investment Projects. The Notice points out that feasibility study is the core link of investment decision-making, and strengthening the feasibility study of investment projects is an inevitable requirement to improve the scientific level of investment decision-making. On the basis of implementing the investment autonomy of enterprises, the Reference Outline for the Compilation of Feasibility Study Report of Enterprise Investment Projects mainly guides enterprises to attach importance to project feasibility study, strengthen the internal decision-making management of investment projects, promote production and operation in accordance with the law, and achieve healthy and sustainable development.
Production line capacity and organizational production are the scale and output scheme of the production line. Although the capacity replenishment project is different from the new project, if the project scale and output plan have changed significantly, the project will be completed. It is necessary to analyze the project demand and output scheme, project factor guarantee, production and operation scheme, safety guarantee scheme, investment estimation (purchasing capacity, preliminary work cost, capital, etc.), profitability analysis, financing scheme, debt repayment ability analysis, financial sustainability analysis, ecological environment impact analysis, resource and energy utilization effect analysis, carbon peak and carbon neutralization analysis. Risk identification and evaluation, the main risks faced by the project and other contents have a significant impact, the more appropriate way is to conduct a feasibility study again, and put forward the conclusion of whether the project is feasible. Instead of buying some production capacity indicators, it seems simple to go through the formalities.
Generally speaking, the feasibility study of the production line and the preliminary design and construction design of the project are completed by the design Institute entrusted by the investor. Now, if major changes are to be made to the scale of the production line, the enterprise should also communicate effectively with the original design unit to help the enterprise make scientific decisions.
Recently, the Sichuan Economic and Credit Commission announced three capacity replacement schemes for cement clinker projects. The original (approved) capacity of two Φ4.3m kilns is 2500 t/d, which is now replaced and supplemented by 1666 t/d, and the newly registered capacity is 4166 t/d. One is the Φ4.8 m kiln with the original capacity of 4000 t/d, which is now replaced and supplemented with 1666 t/d, and the newly registered capacity is 5166 t/d.
Compared with the kiln diameter and capacity conversion table of the previous replacement method, these three projects seem to be suspected of "building large with small batches". Now, in addition to "filling up", it has also expanded its production capacity on this basis. In
2023, the benchmark days of cement peak-shifting production in Sichuan Province will be 130 days + X days. Without considering the factors such as environmental protection, energy consumption, carbon reduction and environmental sensitive period, the number of temporary shutdown days X: the normal annual capacity of 2500 t/d originally approved is 750,000 tons; the annual capacity under off-peak production is 587,500 tons. Under the conversion table, the normal annual production capacity of 3,000 t/d is 900,000 tons; under the off-peak production, the annual production capacity is 705,000 tons. The new (to be) filed production capacity is 4,166 t/d, and the normal annual production capacity is 1,249,800 tons; the annual production capacity under off-peak production is 979,000 tons. 4166 t/d
is put on record, which is 67% higher than original approved capacity of 2500 t/d, and 39% higher than original conversion table of 3000 t/d.
According to the annual output of clinker published in the list of provincial clinker production lines, the annual output of these two production lines is 835100 tons and 525800 tons respectively. The capacity utilization rates at full load are 111% and 70% for 2500 t/d, 93% and 58% for 3000 t/d, and 67% and 42% for 4166 t/d, respectively. The capacity utilization rate of peak-shifting production is as follows: 142% and 89% for 2500 t/d, 118% and 75% for 3000 t/d, and 85% and 53% for 4166 t/d.
It can be seen that one of the production lines is seriously overproduced, and even if the capacity utilization rate reaches 85% under the peak staggering production according to the new record capacity, it is also "quite" normal. However, the capacity utilization rate of the other production line is only 53% under off-peak production, which is obviously low, and it is only 75% according to the correction of "batch small building large", which is barely normal.
Note: The Φ4.8 m kiln production line is criticized by the province as an enterprise that has not completed the peak-shifting production task, so the article is not used as a comparative example.
At present, the situation of production exceeding demand in the cement industry will only be more severe, and when standardizing the capacity management of the cement industry, if we ignore the actual supply and demand conditions, production and operation conditions, it may not be a good thing for the next step of enterprise production and operation.
The more appropriate way is to communicate with the original design unit of the production line project, do a good job in the feasibility study of the production capacity project, make solemn decisions, and make reasonable "supplements" instead of "excessive supplements", so as to achieve the goal of promoting the production and operation of enterprises in accordance with the law and achieving healthy and sustainable development.
