Recently, a policy document entitled "Measures for Classifying and Strengthening the Management of Government Investment Projects in Key Provinces (Trial Implementation)" was circulated on the Internet, requiring 12 high-risk debt provinces and cities across the country to postpone or suspend infrastructure projects. The leader of a cement enterprise in Guizhou said that among the 12 provinces in Guizhou, the demand for cement in Guizhou was greatly affected by this.
According to the statistics of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, in the first two months of this year, the demand for cement in Guizhou fell by about 14% year on year. The leader of the
enterprise said that although the major projects related to people's livelihood such as high-speed railway and expressway were basically not affected, most of the local projects such as municipal engineering and new projects had been suspended. Although there were still many old projects "struggling to support" the demand for cement, if no new projects were launched in the future, the prospect of Guizhou cement market would be worrying. The current situation of
Guizhou cement market relies heavily on long-term rigid peak staggering. The Notice on Staggered Peak Production of Cement Industry in 2024 jointly issued by the Department of Industry and Information Technology and the Department of Ecology and Environment of Guizhou Province requires that all new dry process cement clinker production lines in the province should implement staggered peak production, with 180 days of kiln shutdown for each line and no more than 50 days of kiln shutdown in principle. In
2023, the shutdown time of each production line in Guizhou will be 150 days, and the subsequent adjustment will increase to about 220 days; in the case of further expansion of the decline in cement demand this year, the off-peak shutdown time in Guizhou will probably be at least 230 days. The leader of the
enterprise pointed out that Guizhou implemented strict rigid peak-staggered production, and the kiln line maintenance and independent kiln shutdown could not be included in the number of days of kiln shutdown required by the policy; when the demand declined, the number of days of kiln shutdown was extended, and the current capacity utilization rate in Guizhou was less than 60%, which was also the reason why the supply and demand of cement in Guizhou were relatively balanced and the price was relatively high.
" This year and even in the next few years, the contraction rate of cement demand must be accelerated, should we continue to increase the shutdown time?"? The leader of the enterprise believes that the price of cement in Guizhou will not be very high under the environment of low price in the whole country, and the survival of cement enterprises in Guizhou is still difficult; if the demand for cement further declines, cement enterprises in Guizhou will inevitably join the price war. " The current situation in Guizhou may not last even two years.". ”
