On March 28, the "Cement Economy 50 People Forum" hosted by China Cement Network was successfully held in Hangzhou. The theme of the forum was: Understanding the Changing Situation, Solving the Difficult Situation and Seeking Development. Liu Zonghu, member and vice president of Tianshan Material Party Committee of
China Building Materials, said at the meeting that since the first quarter of this year, cement prices in the Yangtze River Delta have fallen seriously, while in previous years, the Yangtze River Delta usually led the recovery of the national market in the first quarter. The reason for this situation is that enterprises have not yet adapted psychologically to the decline in demand and the increase in the number of off-peak days.
Liu Zonghu introduced that the national cement demand reached its peak in 2014. Separately, the peak value in the northern region is 950 million tons in 2013 and 670 million tons in 2023, with a decline of 30%; the peak value in the southern region is 1.622 billion tons in 2019 and 1.315 billion tons in 2023, with a decline of 16.5%; the peak value in Zhejiang is 136 million tons in 2021, with a decline of 15% in 2023, which is also very large. Many years ago, the number of peak staggering days in the
northern region basically reached more than 120 days, and in recent years, peak staggering production has been actively promoted. The sudden decline in demand and the increase in off-peak production in the Yangtze River Delta region, coupled with the imbalance of off-peak production days in the region, have affected the stability of the market situation.
Overall, the utilization rate of domestic cement production capacity will drop to about 30% in the next ten years. In the long run, the industry structure is similar to that of Japan, and the concentration is increasing.
Liu Zonghu believes that the trend of continuous decline in cement demand can not be changed, the market rebound driven by demand is gone forever, the situation of serious overcapacity will not change in the short and medium term, industry concentration is not achieved overnight, through compulsory capacity removal, joint restructuring, elimination of backward capacity, can not be solved in a short time.
In addition, energy consumption, double carbon, digitalization, environmental protection, safety and so on will continue to push up the total cost of enterprises, which will also lead to the need for a large amount of cash. At the same time, the cost reduction by management and technological innovation is very limited, and it is very difficult to sustain the market by reducing costs.
Liu Zonghu also put forward several suggestions for the development of the industry:
1, form a consensus that large enterprises and small enterprises can not destroy the industry ecology; 2, the matter of the industry still needs the industry itself to end, rational competition depends on the joint efforts of everyone; It is inevitable for 3、 to carry out peak-shift production in a short period of time. If the production capacity cannot be reduced, the price cannot be stabilized, and the industry and the enterprise cannot benefit. In addition, regional peak-shift production should be carried out across the board. 4. Long-term capacity reduction should rely on the joint efforts of all parties. Relevant restrictive policies should be introduced at the policy level, such as allocating carbon quotas according to the approved capacity, stopping capacity replacement, etc; 5、 should take effective measures to improve the concentration, which requires large groups to promote, and can refer to the way of capacity for equity, otherwise it is difficult for enterprises to launch decently; 6. The industry needs to strengthen communication and exchange to jointly respond to changes in the industry.
