The inflection point has arrived, and the demand for cement will further decline in the future.

2024-07-19 14:27:26

The cumulative consumption has been unable to support the further demand for cement in the future.

Stones from

other hills can be used to polish jade. The industry often compares and predicts the development trend of domestic cement industry with the road taken by foreign cement industry. What experience is worth learning from foreign cement industry? What is special about China's cement industry?

Recently, China Cement Network communicated with Dr. Ma Weiping, former chairman and president of Yaobai Cement Group. Ma Weiping pointed out that the current domestic overcapacity problem is actually experienced by many countries, such as Japan.

Ma Weiping said that Japan's experience is of great significance to the development of the domestic cement industry. In the 1980s, the capacity utilization rate of Japan's cement industry was about 68%. At that time, there were 23 enterprises in Japan's cement industry. In order to smoothly implement capacity coordination, these 23 enterprises jointly established five joint ventures to promote the joint operation of enterprises within the group, optimize market competition and smoothly realize capacity reduction.

However, in the 1990s, Japan also experienced a reversal of capacity and a decline in profits. Ma Weiping pointed out that many of these experiences are worth learning.

China's cement industry has its own special features, Ma Weiping said, one is a large volume, the other is a low starting point.

From the perspective of per capita consumption, for many years, China's per capita annual cement consumption is about 1500 kg. From the perspective of cumulative consumption, up to now, the cumulative consumption of cement per capita in China is about 30 tons.

"This is very rare," said Ma Weiping. "Our volume is very large, and the starting point is relatively low, so the cumulative consumption is at a high level. But in the future, it is unlikely that there will be so much space.

Ma Weiping pointed out that the inflection point of consumption in the cement industry has arrived in the past two years, and will continue to decline in the future, because the consumption can not support, and the cumulative consumption can not support the further demand for cement in the future.

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.