in the first half of this year with a capacity of 10,000 tons https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/icbri7syqxg1689934751661.140
." Less than 300000 tons, of which three projects were put into operation in batches from 2022, spanning from last year to this year.
However, in the second half of this year, more polysilicon projects will be put into production. It is predicted that the total number of projects under construction this year will be 1.7 million tons. In addition to the 300,000 tons put into production in the first half of this year, there will be 1.4 million tons to be put into production in the second half of this year.
6 major enterprises + 4 small enterprises + 8 new entrants. By quarter, the annual production rhythm is: 150,000 tons in the first quarter, 150,000 tons in the second quarter, 650,000 tons in the third quarter and 750,000 tons in the fourth quarter. There will be more in the fourth quarter. In terms of
output, the total output of polysilicon in the first half of the year was 650,000 tons, and the output in the second half of the year is expected to reach 900,000 tons . But can market demand for polysilicon reach 900 thousand tons in the second half of the year? In addition, the import volume of polysilicon this year will be relatively small, adding up to 1.6 million tons of domestic production, which is equivalent to 630 GW of photovoltaic production, which is obviously more. Why did polysilicon prices continue to fall sharply in the
first half of the year? In the first half of the year, there were not many new projects put into production
every month, and the supply did not increase significantly, basically maintained at about 110,000-120,000 tons. Why did the price fall so sharply? But at the end of 2021, there was some decline in prices. In the course of several stages of the rise in the past few years, the way of trading is different from the way of trading in the current decline. In the process of rising in
recent years, the way of polysilicon trading between upstream and downstream enterprises is mainly based on long orders . At the end of each month, the volume of the second month is determined, and the second month is mainly based on delivery, plus a small amount of retail market.
However, since the end of November last year, the price of polysilicon has declined. At that time, there was a wave of cooperative enterprises that should have fulfilled the long order, but they did not fulfill it. It was not until the end of December that the purchase was resumed. But even after the resumption of purchases, so far this year, no one has executed long orders, all of which are purchased on demand, once a week or two or three days, to control the inventory of enterprises relatively low . The main reason for this is that prices have fallen too much, and enterprises are trying to avoid risks.
However, a very important reason for the decline in prices is that the supply has increased, and the supply is no longer in short supply. Enterprises expect that the supply will continue to grow every month in the future, and there will be no shortage again . This is a big expectation. In the first half of
this year, when the price of polysilicon fell, the price of the whole industry chain also went down. The price trend of silicon wafer cells will follow more closely, and the component reaction will be slower. What is the reason for this? But in the first ten days of June, we judged that the price of the whole industry chain was in a state of overfall, and the price of components was more obvious, because the price of components was affected by the tender, the tender project supplied for the construction project in the next one or two months, and everyone expected that the price of the industry chain would decline inertially, so the price would go down. Will prices continue to fall sharply in the
second half of the year? Since mid-
July, the prices of silicon wafers and polysilicon have begun to pull back.
In the process of price change, we will find that although the price is falling, the production of each link of the whole industrial chain is still relatively full, the inventory of raw materials and products is relatively stable, only the inventory of polysilicon enterprises is relatively high.
Throughout the first half of the year, photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises did not have much raw material inventory to maintain the consumption within a week. This is a good thing, when the price of the industrial chain goes down, the industrial chain can still maintain a very stable momentum. The price of
polysilicon has dropped from 300000/ton to 60000 ~ 70000/ton, and the profits of the whole industry are all transmitted out, and the price of modules will drop to 1.
The price of modules in the third quarter is so low, why will it continue to fall?
In the first half of the year, domestic installed capacity mainly relied on distributed support for PV module shipments , because individual distributed projects are very small, not too sensitive to the rise and fall of module prices, and there will be no delay in purchasing. The price of
components has dropped to a low level in the first half of the year, but the price will continue to go down in the third quarter .
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, you may be more worried about the new production of polysilicon in the second half of the year to increase the market supply, but we combed the 12 polysilicon projects under construction in the second half of the year, five of them may have variables , because we have not seen substantial progress. For example, the procurement of main equipment. Will the production of new polysilicon projects be delayed in the
second half of the year?
You may be more concerned about a few questions:
1. Will the new project be delayed?
2. However, the project will not catch up with the construction period , will not improve the capacity utilization rate of the project by increasing external cooperation, and will not artificially shorten the production period ;
3. The selection of projects with different cost levels mainly depends on 1) cash flow adequacy , 2) integration and quasi-integration (maintaining profit margin) .
4. Will the maintenance schedule be adjusted?
In the second half of the year, polysilicon enterprises are expected to produce 900000 tons, but they can actually produce 700000 tons by pressing down the load or stopping production , and consume 1.3 million tons of polysilicon throughout the year. The capacity utilization rate can reach more than 80%.
At present, it is impossible to maintain the capacity utilization rate of silicon wafers, batteries and components at more than 80% all the year round, basically about 70%. In terms of
polysilicon technical support, it is relatively stable at present, and the improved Siemens method and silane fluidized bed method are still the main methods. In the N-type photovoltaic era, there are higher requirements for the quality of polysilicon, but in the past two or three years, the dense materials of polysilicon have been able to meet the requirements of N-type products.
Conclusion The
supply of polysilicon is sufficient, the price is stable at a low level, there will be some callbacks, and the supply and demand are basically matched . The stable and low price of
polysilicon will stimulate the growth of global photovoltaic installed capacity;
Polysilicon production structure adjustment, maintain reasonable profit margins upstream and downstream is very important , too low prices will not last long, will also hurt the terminal;
Technology and quality assurance to ensure efficient < a href = "https://www.databm." in China.
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