At present, we are more optimistic about TOPCon with clear industrialization and continuous iterative progress, and pay close attention to the cost reduction of HJT. We believe that the core of component premium is poor efficiency and single-watt power generation gain. After TOPCon is introduced into double-sided POLY, HJT has advantages over TOPCon in linear attenuation and temperature coefficient, corresponding to 3-4 points premium, but the cost is 2-4 points higher than TOPCon. In the next 2-3 years, the payback period of TOPCon equipment will still be in the lead, the product cost performance advantage is obvious, and TOPCon products are still the battery technology with the best cost performance. The essence of
photovoltaic is investment goods , and it is a castle in the air and passive water to talk about technology without cost. Whether the new technology will be introduced into mass production, there are two core driving factors: 1) whether the IRR of downstream customers has been improved. 2) Whether the recovery of equipment investment of manufacturing enterprises is fast enough. Taking TOPCon as an example, under the current premium, the IRR of customers is better than that of PERC components, while the profit per watt of TOPCon batteries is 1.3-1.4 (which may be higher in the current situation), and the payback period of equipment investment is more than one year, which triggers a large-scale expansion of the industry. As the mainstream technology
, the payback period of equipment investment is determined by the equipment investment on the one hand, and the profit per watt of the product on the other hand (see the product premium and cost increase). From this conclusion, there is a big gap between TOPCon and heterojunction, and there is no competitive relationship. The core of
component premium is poor efficiency and gain of power generation per watt, and the gap between the two sides is not obvious at present. PVinfolink data show that the current premium of HJT over TOPCon components is more than 10 cents, the core reason is that the current supply of HJT is small, the cost is high, and the end customers are mainly overseas high-end customers, the price acceptance is high, so the apparent price is much higher than TOPCon, the essence is that the high cost price can not come down. It can only face the niche market, not the mainstream.
From the perspective of efficiency improvement space, the difference between the two is very small, and the industrialization of TOPCon is progressing faster. However, if HJT can be mass-produced on a large scale, the premium relative to TOPCon must depend on the efficiency difference between the two and the gain of power generation per watt.
At present, the efficiency of all-silver HJT is slightly higher than that of TOPCon, and the efficiency of silver-clad copper + 0bb scheme is basically the same as that of TOPCon. In the future, the efficiency of TOPCon with double-sided POLY will reach more than 26% in 2024. Even if HJT is introduced into electroplating process, the efficiency of both will still be on the same level. In the long run, the limit efficiency of double-sided TOPCon is 28.7%, and the limit efficiency of HJT is 28.5%, so it is difficult for HJT to obtain premium through efficiency advantage. In addition, in terms of power generation per watt, HJT has better temperature coefficient and linear attenuation, which is expected to bring a premium of 3-4 points. The investment payback period of TOPCon
equipment is in the lead, and the product cost performance advantage is obvious. Under the scenario at the end of 2023, assuming that HJT adopts the 0 BB + silver-clad copper scheme, the cost per watt is only about 4 cents higher than TOPCon, the efficiency is equal to TOPCon, and the price is assumed to be 4 cents higher (due to the gain of power generation per watt). It is estimated that the payback period of HJT equipment is 2.5 years and that of TOPCon is 1.2 years. By the end of 2024, HJT will adopt 0 BB + copper plating scheme, and TOPCon will introduce double-sided POLY and 0 BB. It is estimated that the cost per watt of HJT will still be 2-3 points higher than that of TOPCon, and the payback period of equipment investment will be 4 years for HJT and 2 years for TOPCon. Compared with last year, the cost
of HJT has been significantly reduced, and the flexibility of electroplating in the 0-1stage is greater. Although HJT is still weaker than TOPCon in terms of cost performance, the cost of HJT has been significantly reduced compared with the all-silver scheme after the adoption of 0bb + electroplating/silver-clad copper process. It is suggested to pay attention to other subsequent routes to improve efficiency and reduce cost. Copper electroplating is currently in the 0-1stage. Even though there are still problems such as high equipment investment cost, complex process and environmental protection, the existing BC battery route plans to adopt electroplating technology, and the equipment flexibility is large in the initial stage of mass production.
TOPCon is in a period of rapid technology iteration, and continues to be optimistic about the product leadership of leading enterprises, focusing on industry trends such as 0bb and double-sided POLY. The current market believes that TOPCon will face homogeneous competition in 2024, and its profitability may decline. However, we believe that TOPCon is far from the "PERC-like" stage, and there is a broad space for long-term technology upgrading.
Risk warning
1. Upstream raw material release and midstream manufacturing industry accelerated production expansion led to intensified competition in the industry. At present, the production capacity of each link in the main industry chain is relatively large, and some new players plan to expand production. If the follow-up raw materials are sufficient and the expansion of production in each link can be implemented, it is expected that the competition in the industry may intensify.
2. Bottlenecks in power grid consumption and other links lead to the risk that industry demand falls short of expectations. In recent years, the speed of new energy installation and grid connection in China, the United States and Europe is relatively fast, which may have a certain impact on the absorptive capacity of the grid, which may slow down the growth of new photovoltaic installation.
3. The risk of declining profitability caused by the rapid diffusion of new technologies. At present , the scale of TOPCon battery expansion plan in photovoltaic industry is relatively large. If the subsequent industry expansion is accelerated and the gap between players is not large, it may cause the risk of TOPCon profitability decline.
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