Distributed PV will grow 18 times in the next 30 years, is China's roof enough?

In the next 30 years, the scale of ground centralized photovoltaic power plants such as Shagohuang will increase by 6 times, but what is more coveted is that the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic (including BIPV) released by the scattered urban and rural building roofs will increase by 18 times. Three times as much as the former.

This is the commercial value of rooftop photovoltaics.

Over the past few years, centralized ground power stations have dominated the domestic photovoltaic installed market, and the rural household market has been stimulated by the county-wide promotion policy, almost supporting the day of distributed photovoltaic.

In 2020, centralized photovoltaic power plants accounted for 68% of the newly installed photovoltaic power plants. In 2021, the wind direction turned to household photovoltaic power plants. The outbreak of household photovoltaic power plants directly promoted distributed photovoltaic power plants to take half of the newly installed photovoltaic power plants; 2022 is another new force in the distribution, the turning point of industrial and commercial photovoltaic development, even exceeding the new installed capacity of household photovoltaic, and becoming the largest driving force for the increase of photovoltaic installed capacity.

From the perspective of business opportunities, it is a consensus in the industry that double carbon looks at photovoltaic, photovoltaic looks at distributed, and distributed looks at industry and commerce.

In the next 30 years, large industrial and commercial enterprises on the roofs of industrial plants and warehouses, as well as small and micro industrial and commercial enterprises in logistics parks, industrial parks, mining areas, wharfs, commercial buildings, electric vehicle charging stations, etc. Will lead China

" It is estimated that China's overall PV installed capacity will reach 34 by 2050. What does this mean?

Henan added almost Zhejiang is the king

of industry and commerce. Before answering the above questions, let's take a look at the development of distributed photovoltaic stock, as well as the advantages, disadvantages and distribution structure of resources in various provinces and cities.

Due to different resource endowments, different provinces and cities in China have different power generation characteristics. For example, Shandong is dominated by thermal power generation, Sichuan, Yunnan and Hubei are dominated by hydropower generation, and Guangdong's nuclear power, Inner Mongolia's wind power and Qinghai's photovoltaic power are in the forefront of clean energy.

With the weakening of the growth of centralized photovoltaic power stations, the rise of distributed photovoltaic has changed the distribution pattern of newly installed provinces and cities. The "Three North" region is no longer dominant, and North China, Central China and East China in the Yangtze River Delta have begun to emerge.

In 2022, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 87.4G W, of which the new installed capacity of centralized photovoltaic power stations was 36.3G W, an increase of 42% over the previous year, accounting for 42% of all new photovoltaic installed capacity; Distributed PV installed capacity 51. In distributed PV, the household PV installed capacity reached 25.3GW, and the industrial and commercial PV installed capacity increased 25.

For the first time, China's new PV installed capacity formed a "troika" situation, and centralized, household, and industrial and commercial PV installed capacity formed a 4:3:3 pattern.

Even in terms of the proportion of new centralized photovoltaic installations, Hebei, Hubei and Guizhou rank the top three, while Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan and Xinjiang, which have more advantages in solar light intensity and long-term resources, are far behind Hebei and Hubei in the scale of new centralized power stations on the ground. With the improvement of

economy, industrial and commercial photovoltaics have entered the explosive growth

. The "volume" of household photovoltaics in the previous year is not surprising compared with the explosive growth of industrial and commercial photovoltaics last year.

Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other places have a large population, and the promotion of the whole county is relatively strong, so the development of household photovoltaic is the fastest; while Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places are economically developed, and they are the provinces with large industrial and commercial power consumption, the power supply is relatively tight all the year round, the industrial and commercial electricity price is relatively high, and the price is constantly rising, so the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic is mainly industrial and commercial. Among them, Zhejiang Province alone took a quarter of the country's cake .

is strong policy." Push. Under the target of 30/60 double carbon, the rigid promotion of the index of "double control of energy consumption" with

On July 11, the Opinions on Promoting the Dual Control of Energy Consumption to Gradually Shift to the Dual Control of Carbon Emissions, which was deliberated and adopted at the second meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening Reform, also pointed out that we should improve the regulation of total energy consumption and intensity, and gradually shift to the dual control system of total carbon emissions and intensity. It is the general trend to gradually shift

from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions, which will directly promote local governments to increase the proportion of renewable energy such as photovoltaic, wind power and hydropower. The whole county development policy promoted by the

whole country is another important driving force for the explosion of distributed photovoltaic. In June 2021, the State Energy Administration issued the Notice on Submitting the Pilot Scheme of Roof Distributed Photovoltaic Development for the Whole County (City, District), requiring the whole country to organize and carry out the pilot work of roof distributed photovoltaic development for the whole county during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The proportion of photovoltaic installation on the roofs of Party and government organs, public buildings, industrial and commercial factories and residential roofs is not less than 50%, 40%, 30% and 20%, respectively.

Second, the economy is enhanced. Since this year, the price of silicon materials has dropped sharply, from 300000 yuan/ton at the peak of last year to 60000 yuan/ton, and has been rapidly transmitted to the component link.

According to the SMM quotation, the average price of single-crystal PERC double-sided 182mm modules was 1.63 yuan/W at the beginning of June, which had fallen to 1.3 yuan/W by the end of June, and the average price of single-crystal PERC single-sided 182mm modules had also fallen from 1.61 yuan/W at the beginning of June to 1. The initial investment cost of distributed photovoltaic system is expected to be further reduced from 2022.

On the one hand, the electricity price of industry and commerce continues to rise, and "photovoltaic + energy storage" can greatly reduce the cost of electricity consumption; on the other hand, the economy and yield of photovoltaic investment are improved, which directly triggers the nerves of industrial and commercial owners.

For factories, parks, office buildings, electric vehicle charging stations and other industries, the stronger the absorption capacity of photovoltaic power generation, the greater the benefits. Because of the industrial and commercial electricity price and 0.

Small and micro businesses have more stamina and have not yet entered a period

of rapid growth. After large businesses, small and micro businesses have begun to increase.

At present, the roofs of factories and warehouses account for a considerable proportion of the incremental pool of industrial and commercial photovoltaics. In 2022, the "five big and six small" power generation groups accounted for 70% of the market share and played multiple roles of developers, asset holders and operators in this field because of its large size, easier management and low risk of construction and operation.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the total building area of factories and warehouses in China will be 11.7 billion square meters, the estimated roof area will be 7 billion square meters, and the potential photovoltaic installed capacity will be 980 GW. Based on the cumulative installed capacity of 92GW of industrial and commercial PV in 2022, the penetration rate is only 9.

However, this situation may be reversed as the installed capacity of small and micro industrial and commercial PV enters the "outbreak period" next year. Like commercial buildings, parks, airports, base stations and other scenarios, although the scale of single development is small, the number is large, the market concentration is insufficient, and the penetration rate of photovoltaic is low, so the growth potential is stronger. More importantly, there is still a lack of giants in this field, competition tends to be low-cost and localized, and there is great room for integration and quality improvement.

Especially for new formats such as electric vehicle charging stations, it seems that the installed capacity of photovoltaic in a single station is very small, but considering the large number and high growth rate, it is still a blue sea with high growth.

According to the calculation of the Energy Chain Research Institute, according to the charging pile single gun corresponding to a parking space, a single parking space installed with 3.75 kW photovoltaic, a single station supporting building roof 20 kW photovoltaic, 1.648 million stations in 2030, 26.3 million charging guns, of which 30% of the parking spaces, 20% of the building roof can be equipped with photovoltaic. In 2030, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic charging stations in China will reach 33 GW, with an installed area of 235 million square meters, accounting for 4% of the national distributed photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2050, the installed capacity of photovoltaic charging stations will reach 79 GW. Installation area 5. In the field of electric vehicle charging services, Energy Chain Intelligent Power and Tele Power have accelerated their layout in the fields of optical storage and charging integration and micro-grid, and successively obtained the qualification of Shenzhen Virtual Power Plant Load Aggregator, which also shows the huge growth space of charging station scenarios.

Moreover, compared with large industrial and commercial photovoltaic, small and micro industrial and commercial photovoltaic market not only has a larger market space, but also does not have "five big and six small" power generation groups to "grab food", which is more suitable for the rapid expansion of brand merchants, integration of decentralized assets and unified operation.

the answer is self-evident." Considering other decentralized redundancy scenarios, China only needs about 40% of the roof to achieve.