In March, the prosperity of the building materials industry rebounded sharply.

of

building materials industry in March 2023 was 138.6 points, higher than critical point, and rose sharply to the boom zone.

January and February are the "off-season" of the building materials industry market, and continue the weak market demand since last year. The prosperity index of the building materials industry fluctuates significantly below the critical point. However, after the Spring Festival, the building materials enterprises resumed production one after another, and the prosperity of the building materials industry began to pick up gradually in February. In March, the downstream construction, manufacturing and other markets gradually started, the off-peak production and other factors weakened, the production of building materials accelerated, the ring-to-ring growth accelerated, and the prosperity index of the building materials industry rose significantly from the low level to the boom zone.

Figure & nbsp; Monthly Prosperity Index of Building Materials Industry & nbsp;

On the supply side, in March, both the price index and the production index rose above the critical point. Among them, the production index of building materials industry was 137.2 points, up 49.3 points from the previous month. The production of building materials industry was significantly faster than previous month, but the production was still relatively weak compared with the normal year. At the same time, the recovery of building materials industries and regions was uneven, and the overall recovery still needed time and further consolidation; The price index of building materials industry was 101.0 points, up 1.7 points from last month, and the downward trend of building materials prices has changed.

On the demand side, investment demand index, industrial consumption index and international trade index have rebounded significantly. Among them, building materials investment demand index 139.9 points, up 49.8 points from last month, higher than critical point, infrastructure construction demand growth faster, the real estate market decline signs weakened; The industrial consumption index of building materials products was 134.1 points, up 50.2 points from last month, and the demand for related manufacturing industries using building materials products rose significantly; The international trade index of building materials was 143.3 points, up 59.8 points from last month, and the export of building materials and non-metallic mineral commodities maintained growth.

2. Analysis of MPI influencing factors and early warning

of positive changes in the supply and demand of building materials. With a series of steady growth measures introduced by the state since last year, after the Spring Festival, municipal projects and infrastructure projects have gradually started. From January to February, infrastructure investment increased by 9.0% year on year. The production of automobiles, photovoltaic cells, electronic and electrical products has been restored in an orderly manner, effectively stabilizing market expectations. Since March, the production of building materials enterprises has been accelerated. Positive changes at both ends of supply and demand, although the growth of some regions and some industries is uneven, but the overall promotion of the building materials industry has rebounded at a low level.

Building materials price index rebounded. Among the 13 building materials industries, the prices of 6 industries, including cement, concrete and cement products, building stone, building technology glass, mineral fibers and composite materials, and non-metallic minerals, rose annually, while the prices of other industries declined annually, and the price decline of some industries slowed down. Research on the operation situation of

building materials industry. After March, infrastructure construction has been accelerated, manufacturing related demand has been further stabilized, and the real estate industry, as the main demand market for building materials, is expected to improve marginally and stabilize. With the increasing activity of building materials production, the industry will continue to show the characteristics of wide supply, high inventory and weak demand for a period of time, and need to further consolidate and accelerate the formation of a dynamic balance between supply and demand. Global inflation is still at a high level, the fluctuation of high commodity and fuel prices is difficult to change in the short term, the building materials industry is still facing high cost pressure, and price is still an important factor affecting the quality of industry operation.

Notes:

1. The Building Materials Industry Prosperity Index (MPI) mainly monitors the operation trend of the building materials industry and has a strong forecasting and early warning function. When MPI is higher than 100, it indicates that the building materials industry is in the boom zone, and when MPI is lower than 100, it indicates that the building materials industry is in the non-boom zone.

2. Building materials industry prosperity index (MPI) judges the operation trend of building materials industry from the supply side and demand side. The supply side is divided into price index and production index, and the demand side is divided into investment demand index, industrial consumption index and international trade index of building materials according to the actual impact of demand areas on the building materials industry.

3. The price index of building materials industry reflects the trend of ex-factory prices of building materials industry. The ex-factory price does not include the expenses, product profits and taxes incurred in the circulation of building materials products. The ex-factory price is different from the market price, the two changes will affect each other, there is a time lag, in a certain period of time there may be inconsistent trends.

4. Industrial production index of building materials reflects the trend of industrial production of building materials, excluding price changes.

5. Investment demand index reflects the trend of investment market demand related to building materials.

6. The industrial consumption index reflects the trend of industrial consumption demand related to building materials. Industrial consumption includes not only the inter-industry consumption within the building materials industry, but also the consumption of building materials products by downstream industries.

7. The international trade index of building materials reflects the trend of international trade in building materials, which is mainly composed of the export index of building sanitary ceramics, building technical glass, building stone, glass fiber and composite materials, non-metallic minerals and other industries.