July 20, he said that in the first half of 2023, the output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components increased by more than 60% year-on-year. The output of the four links has all exceeded the annual output in 2021 and exceeded 60% of the annual output in 2022. In the first half of
this year, the overall supply chain price continued to decline after a brief rebound, with the fastest price decline of more than 78% compared with the highest point last year; the price decline of each link also raised the user's expectation of price reduction.
In addition, he believes that the most prominent feature in the first half of this year is the overall acceleration of the industrialization process of N-type products. At the same time, the heat of perovskite batteries is increasing, and many governments are also competing for layout, with the trend of "changing lanes and overtaking".
photovoltaic industry exceeded expectations
. In the first half of 2023, all links of the photovoltaic industry chain in China maintained growth.
Among them, the manufacturing side : from January to June, the output of the four major links of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and modules increased by more than 60% year-on-year. In particular, the output of polysilicon exceeded 600,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 65%; the output of silicon wafers exceeded 250GW, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 63%; the output of cells exceeded 220GW, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 62%; and the output of modules exceeded 200GW, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 60%.
On the application side , the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 78.42 GW in the first half of the year, an increase of 154% over the same period last year, and the scale is close to that of the whole year of last year.
The growth rate is more than 13%. Solar cells, together with electric manned vehicles and lithium batteries, have become the "new three" of China's foreign trade exports, driving the overall export growth. 1. At the same time, photovoltaic products account for about 60% of the "new three". In terms of
product structure, the export proportion of silicon wafers and batteries has increased, while the export proportion of components has decreased. In the first six months, the export volume of silicon wafers and solar cells increased by more than 20% per month compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the production capacity of photovoltaic modules in overseas layout of enterprises, and the increase in the demand for solar cells and silicon wafers in overseas production lines.
In terms of regional distribution of exports , Europe is still China's largest module export market; exports of silicon wafers and cells are mainly concentrated in Asia. In the first half of the year, the growth of component exports
to Africa was the most obvious, mainly for South Africa, which increased more than three times year-on-year. The installation speed of the African market is less than export speed of components, and it is difficult to maintain a high proportion of growth in the future.
In the European market, especially in the household market, the application for installation procedures is more complicated, and there has been a shortage of installation workers. Although the relevant procedures are being simplified, the growth rate of China's photovoltaic products exported to Europe may slow down in the future due to the constraints of labor, land, grid consumption and other issues, as well as the high inventory level of distributors.
From the perspective of technological development, the most prominent feature in the first half of this year is the overall acceleration of the industrialization process of N-type products. Last year, it was said to be the first year of N-type industrialization, and this year, the proportion of products has been greatly increased.
On February 17, a certain group 5.
At the same time, the production capacity of N-type products of major groups is also increasing rapidly. Among them,
Jinko : It is expected that by the end of 2023, N-type battery production capacity accounts for more than 70%;
JA : It is estimated that by the end of 2023, N-type battery production capacity will account for more than 55%;
Tianhe : It is estimated that by the end of 2023, the production capacity of N-type batteries will account for more than 53%;
Chint : It is estimated that by the end of 2023, the production capacity of N-type batteries will account for more than 80%.
In addition, from the annual SNEC exhibition, it can be seen that the main products of enterprises are fully transformed to N-type. Among the component products released by SNEC in 2020, the proportion of N-type components is only 7.
In terms of technology development, the heat of perovskite batteries is increasing. Many governments, including the Group of Seven (G7), the United States and Japan, are also competing for layout, with a tendency to "change lanes and overtake".
At the same time, China's market players are diversified, not only technology-based start-ups, leading photovoltaic enterprises, central state-owned enterprises are competing to enter the market, but also cross-border enterprises such as Ningde Times and Toyota Motor are investing in the layout. Prospects for
the development of photovoltaic industry
in the second half of the year This summer, the high temperature heat wave swept across the world, and the development of renewable energy has become urgent. The United Nations Guterres on Secretary-General warned in New York on June 15 that countries must phase out coal and other fossil fuels and promote large-scale investment in renewable energy to avoid climate "disasters".
Pay attention to his two key points: one is to increase investment, and the other is large-scale.
In this situation, the proportion of renewable energy generation in the world is constantly increasing.
From 2012 to 2022, the proportion of renewable energy generation increased from 21.3% to 29.
According to the forecast of the proportion of renewable energy generation, the proportion of renewable energy generation in the world is expected to reach 38% in 2027. By 2050, this figure may be 60%. The speed of development is very fast, which is a trend.
In the future, there will be more room for improvement in the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation, and the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation in the world's major economies will continue to increase, especially in the past five years. In 2022, the world's average penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation will be about 4.54%, and the penetration rate of China and the United States will be close to the world's average level.
Based on this development background, international organizations have raised their expectations for global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2050 (GW) year by year, among which the International Renewable Energy Agency has substantially raised its forecast for photovoltaic installed capacity in 2050 in 2023. It is estimated that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 18200GW by 2050, with an increase of nearly 30% . In 2022, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of future installed capacity based on the net zero carbon scenario (NZE), raising the global PV installed capacity forecast to 15468 GW in 2050, with an increase of about 7% .
In addition, the global photovoltaic market has a strong momentum of development, and new photovoltaic installations in the first half of the year have increased significantly year-on-year. New 
installed capacity structure, large base projects will become an important support for the growth of centralized projects. The government will speed up the large-scale wind and solar power bases focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas, and plan to increase the installed capacity of "Shagehuang" large base by 455GW by 2030; The "14th Five-Year Plan" is planned to be 200 GW, with 150 GW for outward transmission and 50 GW for local self-use; the "15th Five-Year Plan" is planned to be 255 GW, with 165 GW for outward transmission and 90 GW for local self-use.
In terms of the integration and development of photovoltaic and transportation, the road is wide and long, and the future can be expected. With the development of the national economy, the construction of transportation infrastructure is developing continuously, and the follow-up will continue to extend, so the space in the field of transportation is very broad. However, it is also very difficult to promote the construction process of transportation infrastructure, which deserves great attention.
Second, offshore photovoltaic will usher in large-scale development.
China's coastline is 18000 kilometers long, and in theory, more than 100 GW of offshore photovoltaic can be installed, which has broad market prospects. In the past two years, relevant policies have been issued at the national and provincial levels to promote and encourage the development and construction of offshore photovoltaic. Leading photovoltaic enterprises also have abundant technical reserves for offshore photovoltaic technology and products, and the southeastern coastal areas are in economically developed areas and have economic strength. Therefore, offshore photovoltaic has initially met the conditions for large-scale development.
However, for offshore photovoltaic scenarios, photovoltaic products need differentiated development in different scenarios. The
module needs to enhance the back gain capability, packaging reliability and mechanical capability, and the inverter needs to enhance the sealing, salt spray resistance and anti-corrosion capability; for the optical storage and charging integration scenario, the module needs to be beautiful and non-flammable, and the inverter needs to increase the safety guarantee capability of the power station and the optical storage and charging integration capability.
In addition, as a long-term market leader, Chinese enterprises should continue to pay attention to the intensification of international competition in photovoltaic manufacturing. Under the
new international situation, the change of global PV industry pattern presents new characteristics:
driven by endogenous market demand and manufacturing incentive/trade barrier policy; The direction of
industrial capital diffusion is the coexistence of globalization and localization, with China, the United States, India and Europe as the main targets;
the scale and speed of industrial restructuring have been significantly improved. The majority of
China's photovoltaic market is overseas, the capital of photovoltaic industry is accelerating to flow among the major photovoltaic manufacturing regions in the world, and the global photovoltaic industry pattern is accelerating to reconstruct.
At the same time, Chinese enterprises are making rapid progress in overseas capacity building. Since
2022, the capital of China's photovoltaic industry in Southeast Asia has mainly constructed more than 21 GW of silicon wafers, more than 42.8 GW of batteries, more than 435 GW of modules, and photovoltaic ". Countries have made rapid progress in promoting the localization of photovoltaic supply chain, but the scale advantage of China's photovoltaic industry chain is difficult to shake in the short term. The main reason is that China's photovoltaic manufacturing cost advantage is obvious, whether it is the total cost of photovoltaic manufacturing, module manufacturing cost or photovoltaic power generation LCOE, compared with other economies, it has certain advantages. Before
2024, the proportion of China's photovoltaic manufacturing side in the world will rise, but in 2027, after the industrial chain of India and Southeast Asia comes up, the proportion of China's production capacity in the world will decrease by about 5%, and the proportion of output will decrease by about 15%.
It is worth noting that the photovoltaic auxiliary materials industry is facing a deeper demand for internationalization. With the increasingly stringent trade barrier policy, the importance of overseas production capacity of auxiliary materials is increasing ; Overseas trade barriers have prompted Chinese photovoltaic enterprises to speed up the pace of overseas integrated production capacity in recent years , and auxiliary materials are an important part of it; Overseas photovoltaic enterprises are also making sustained efforts in photovoltaic glass, film, bracket and other fields, with the intention of making up for the shortcomings.
China's photovoltaic products are now very competitive in the world, mainly because of the direct manufacturing cost, but the problem is that in the complex situation at home and abroad, how can we maintain our advantages? We can only maintain our high cost performance. I think this is very important.
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