According to Cao Renxian, chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association and chairman of Sunshine Power, In 2023, the photovoltaic industry association continued to maintain rapid growth. In terms of output, from January to May, the output of polysilicon was 480,000 tons, the output of silicon wafers was 203 GW, the output of cells was 181 GW, and the output of modules was 164 GW, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. In terms of export, the total export volume of photovoltaic products from January to May reached 24 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; In terms of installed capacity, from January to May, 60 new photovoltaic installations were added in China.
In addition, the shortage of talents in the photovoltaic industry has also been concerned by the forum guests. With the rapid expansion of the industry, the problem of recruitment difficulties is becoming more and more significant. Zhou Jian believes that the industry should actively promote the intellectualization of the production line of photovoltaic manufacturing plants, and the realization of unmanned factories and lights-off factories is the solution.
, With the growth of market demand, the recognition of the industry by the capital market, the continuation of local governments, the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand production, and the superposition of multiple factors, the photovoltaic industry has shown a vigorous development trend. He predicts that the new installed capacity in the world will be about 450-480 GW this year, and may reach nearly 550-600 GW next year, and will grow the year after next. However, the growth curve of the industry in 2026, 27 and 28 years may fall below 10%, new changes will take place in production capacity and demand in the future, and the industry structure will also change. For example, traditional enterprises will still occupy a dominant position in the market competition in the next 3-5 years, and new entrants can also win advantages if they can seize the differentiated competition and dislocation competition. Otherwise, it will be difficult to succeed if we still adopt the strategy of homogeneous competition.
In addition, the current industrial chain upstream and downstream are cross-border, many enterprises are in the layout of integration, so the future industry relationship will change greatly, supporting enterprises have a sense of crisis, will cause a new development dilemma of the industry. "It is impossible for an enterprise to do everything well, not necessarily strong, so it is necessary to do a better job of complementary cooperation, so as to go a long time," Gao Jifan said.
At present, the industry has gradually entered the stage of high-intensity competition, and the new entrants from the current cross-border pursuit of light will face great challenges if they do not establish comprehensive competitiveness. Gao Jifan believes that "only by strengthening, excelling and serving customers and products can enterprises win the future." During the
exchange, Lu Chuan, chairman of Chint New Energy, said that under the background of double carbon and the goal of global decarbonization, there is indeed a huge market demand for new energy sources such as photovoltaics. In view of the fact that the entire photovoltaic industry began in 2002. About 280 GW capacity has been built in 18 years, but another 280 GW capacity has been invested in the last 18 months.
But is the photovoltaic industry really overcapacity? He said that the recent large-scale expansion of production is largely due to the iteration of technology updates, battery technology iteration drives the follow-up expansion of supporting industrial chain capacity, but in the next year or two, the old capacity will gradually withdraw . At the same time, in the current enterprise expansion campaign, domestic centralized production capacity is very large, but due to geopolitical reasons, many enterprises will consider expanding production overseas, so it will achieve a balance between regional markets.
He appealed that most of the photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises are private enterprises, and their decision-making is very flexible, so that the market mechanism can really play a role. At the same time, grid consumption problems and policy inconsistencies have restricted the release of demand in the middle and lower reaches of the domestic photovoltaic industry chain. He called on the state to introduce more effective and specific measures for photovoltaic applications to further promote consumption and further release market demand. On the one hand
, homogenization and differentiation
are not enough to worry about the stage surplus of advanced production capacity, but on the other hand, it is undeniable that the industry does have serious problems of product homogenization and capacity duplication. Especially for many new entrants, the construction of homogeneous product capacity is still the mainstream, facing the more stringent competitive environment in the future, how to win a "way out"?
As Gao Jifan said, it is normal for enterprises to cross the border to find new tracks and new developments. Many old enterprises came across the border at the beginning, but can new enterprises do a good job after crossing the border? If new entrants can seize the advantages of differentiated competition and dislocation competition, they can win the initiative in the competition.
Cao Renxian also agrees with the view of differentiated competition, he suggested that to find their own differentiated competitiveness, " even if it is marketing differentiation, it will not necessarily be eliminated .". He suggested that marketing differentiation first , organization, culture, management should also make characteristics , at the same time, he believes that enterprises should focus on the main business, the main track, "think less about other people's meals!"! Xu Xiaohua, chairman of
Anhui Huasheng Xinneng, suggested that in addition to new technologies, the differentiation of global market layout is also a way to survive. There should be capacity arrangements for policy barriers, and at the same time, we should focus on making good products.