previous "soaring" and periodic rapid decline, the price of silicon materials has shown signs of stabilization in the near future. According to PvinfoLink data, the average price of polysilicon dense material this week is about 64 yuan/kg, which is flat. Many analysts interviewed
by reporters said that the current price of silicon materials has been at the bottom, close to the cost line of enterprises, and it is expected that the price of silicon materials will be differentiated in the future. N-type silicon materials are expected to show a better price trend, while P-type silicon materials prices remain weak. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the price of raw materials falls, the market of photovoltaic industry may further expand, and the excess profits of raw materials will be transmitted downstream. You Xi, co-founder of
App, told reporters that the inventory of polysilicon is close to a reasonable level, while the price of silicon has fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, so it is expected that there will be very limited room for the price of silicon to fall. Xu Fei, a partner
of Wanchuang Investment Bank, believes that the improvement of supply-demand relationship and the demand of some enterprises for inventory clearance are the important reasons for the decline in the price of silicon materials and the sharp drop in the past month. At present, the price of silicon materials has fallen to near the cost line. "The general cost line of silicon enterprises is about 60000 yuan/ton, and the large factories represented by Tongwei shares have strong cost advantages, and there is still room for profit in the falling price of silicon materials, but some new companies and small manufacturers have to stop production and stop losses after the falling price of silicon materials because of their relatively high cost. Therefore, this also indirectly realizes the industry shuffle."
From the perspective of future trend, the price of silicon materials may be divided, and the price trend of N-type silicon materials is favored by analysts. Fang Wenzheng, an analyst of Longzhong Information Polysilicon Industry, told the Securities Daily that as the photovoltaic industry continues to promote technological iteration, N-type production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year, and the overall price will rise. In the second half of the year, some high-quality dense material enterprises may turn to N-type silicon materials, but the quality control and process may need to be more sophisticated. It is expected that the price of silicon materials will fluctuate between 60 yuan/kg and 70 yuan/kg in the second half of the year.
Xu Fei also said that in the second half of the year, the price trend of P-type silicon materials and N-type silicon materials may be divided. "P-type silicon materials (corresponding to PERC battery technology) have not been invested since the second half of last year, and are gradually being replaced by N-type silicon materials corresponding to new technologies such as TOPCon, and its price trend is expected to remain weak.". Under the guidance of new technologies such as TOPCon, N-type silicon materials will be put into production in large quantities in the second half of this year, and the production capacity is expected to increase substantially, but because of its relatively high quality requirements and the relative shortage of products, its price is expected to strengthen in the second half of this year. Profits of the
industry chain will be transferred
to the downstream. With the price of silicon materials gradually stabilizing after falling to a low level, the market has released optimistic expectations for the overall profitability of photovoltaic industry chain enterprises, and the profits of the industry chain will be transferred to the downstream. In a recent interaction with investors
, Jingao Technologies said that as the main raw material for the company's production, the sharp drop in the price of polysilicon will lead to a drop in the price of market components, thus stimulating the demand for downstream photovoltaic power generation installation, and the company's component shipments will also benefit from the growth of market demand. When introducing the silicon wafer business to investors, Hebang Biology said that the decline in the price of silicon wafers was due to the decline in the price of silicon materials. In fact, the decline in the price of silicon materials "led to the prosperity of the industry, the increase in the willingness of downstream installation, and the booming production and marketing of silicon wafers, batteries and components". Hongyuan Green Energy also said that the downward price of silicon materials is conducive to promoting industry cost reduction and stimulating industry demand growth.
Soochow Securities believes that the downward trend of industrial prices will stimulate the rapid growth of demand-in 2023, the release of silicon production capacity will push down the price of components, and the demand for ground power station projects in stock will increase. The global installed demand is expected to reach 370GW, an increase of more than 50% over the same period last year; From the perspective of the domestic market, it is expected that the annual installed capacity will be increased by about 160GW to 170GW, an increase of more than 80% over the same period last year, while the optical storage parity will open up the long-term growth space of the industry.
Looking forward to the profitability of each link of the photovoltaic industry chain in the second half of 2023, Xu Fei said: "Although the silicon material that once made huge profits has experienced a price drop, it is expected that there will still be a good profit space in the future; the profit space of the silicon wafer link is relatively low; the gross profit rate of photovoltaic cells is expected to reach 14% to 15%."; The component sector is expected to achieve a gross profit margin of about 10%. With the price of raw materials falling, the market of photovoltaic industry will be further opened, and the excess profits of raw materials will be transmitted downstream.
"It is expected that in the second half of the year, the downstream profits of the photovoltaic industry chain will be relatively loose, the batteries may have a relative premium, and the component links are also expected to reap small profits." Fang Wenzheng said that in the future, the integrated layout of the photovoltaic industry will also receive more and more attention and attention from enterprises. "At present, the profits of integrated layout enterprises are considerable. In the short run, integrated layout is conducive to smoothing the premium of products in all links and maintaining higher profits. In the long run, integrated layout enterprises are also expected to maintain a relatively considerable level of profitability."
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