Soda ash plant overhaul, supply and demand repair is obvious
since July, domestic soda ash futures have finally broken the pattern of shock operation, opening a wave of relatively strong rebound. From a fundamental point of view, the overall spot price of soda ash in June temporarily maintained a low level after the previous decline. As the futures market continued to fall in the early stage, pessimistic expectations were released more fully. At the same time, after entering July, the number of overhaul of soda ash upstream units increased, and the overall operating rate gradually declined from 90% in the previous period to 81.7%. As a result of the overall decline in start-up, there has also been a certain decline in production. In the environment where the overall demand for photovoltaic glass or float glass is maintained in summer, the inventory of soda ash has been significantly digested. The commissioning of the soda ash plant of yuanxing Energy (7.190, -0.13, -1.78%) is smooth as a whole. Of course, the test plan of the following lines remains to be further observed. On the whole, with the expected clarity of new production capacity and the balance of short-term supply and demand, the futures market gained a rare respite this summer, and the market began to repair the supply and demand situation in September through a rebound.
At present, the overall operating rate of soda production enterprises is 81.7%, of which the average operating rate of ammonia soda manufacturers is 82.2%, the average operating rate of combined soda manufacturers is 80.3%, and the average operating rate of trona plants is 85.7%. This week, Jinshan Huojia, Xuzhou Fengcheng and Hebang No.2 Plant were shut down for maintenance, while Hubei Shuanghuan, Salt Lake Magnesium Industry and Jiangsu Huachang started to decline. At present, the units with maintenance plans in August are Wucai Alkali, Zhongyan Inner Mongolia, Huainan Debang and Jiangxi Jinghao. In terms of
soda ash profit, the production profit of the combined soda process plant and the ammonia-soda process plant has stopped falling and rebounded. Among them, the profit of the combined soda plant is 560 yuan, and the profit of the ammonia soda plant is 350 yuan.
Soda ash inventory returned to a low level
, the latest national inventory was 304 thousand and 600 tons, down 44 thousand and 800 tons. According to the regional data, the inventory of soda ash in Northwest China is 94000 tons (down 20000 tons annually). Soda ash inventory in North China was 73,000 tons (decreased by 26,000 tons on a month-on-month basis), 41,000 tons in East China (increased by 1,000 tons on a month-on-month basis) and 32,000 tons in Central China (increased by 2,000 tons on a month-on-month basis).
Glass supply and demand repair, market confidence increased
since July, domestic float glass futures prices steadily upward. From a fundamental point of view, domestic float glass consumption entered the off-season in June, and the market was worried about the pressure on spot prices accumulated in the off-season, so there was a simultaneous decline in futures and spot prices. The main contract bottomed out at 1471 yuan/ton. However, domestic glass stocks have not risen for several weeks in a row, indicating that although the off-season, the overall supply and demand is still acceptable. At the same time, on the macro level, the leaders of China and the United States met, and the market's worries about the future market were also clearly resolved. In this context, the glass futures market began to rebound, and began to gradually repair the previous positive basis. As of last week, there were 245 production lines of float glass, and the daily melting volume was maintained at about 167 thousand and 400 tons per day, a slight increase of 800 tons per day compared with last week. On the other hand, since July, the domestic spot price of glass has been relatively general, and the transaction price in the mainstream areas has been moving down slowly. In this process, the spot production profit also began to slowly repair from the previous 600 yuan, down to the current 300 yuan. Judging from the past situation, the current spot valuation has returned to normal. Of course, under this moderate profit pattern, the daily volume of glass has only maintained a slow growth. Generally speaking, the expectations of spot and futures in the early market are pessimistic, which has squeezed out the water, which is also the driving force of the current rebound. In terms of
inventory, the overall inventory of the country last week was 50.86 million heavy boxes, compared with 2.24 million heavy boxes last week, and the inventory was further digested. According to the inventory level by region, the inventory of glass production enterprises in Hebei is 377 (-92) million heavy boxes, while the inventory of major glass production areas in other regions is 780 (-20) in Shandong, 594 (-18) in Guangdong, 347 (-9) in Hubei and 480 (+ 2) in Jiangsu (unit: 10,000 heavy boxes).
Conclusion
In terms of glass, the repair of supply and demand and the expected improvement of the market are the main drivers of the current rebound. In particular, the expected change will be good for the market in the medium and long term. In the short term, if the inventory can be further digested in the off-season, the price repair will be more obvious. In terms of
soda ash, the overhaul in summer is in full swing, accompanied by a significant decline in start-up and a steady increase in demand for glass plates, as well as the release pressure of new production capacity is not obvious. Soda ash is in the repair cycle of disk base difference in summer. In the medium and long term, we need to pay attention to the production progress of the new plant.
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