This week, the price of silicon materials fell again, and the lowest price has fallen to 210 yuan/kg. This is the fourth reduction in the price of silicon materials since the beginning of the year.
On March 22, the Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association released the latest silicon material price. The price range of single crystal re-feeding was 215-222000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 218200 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.63%; The price range of monocrystalline dense materials is 213-220000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 216200 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.66%.
Polysilicon transaction price (2023.3.22)
Data source: Silicon Branch
Silicon Branch said that the silicon material transaction in the market was relatively light this week, mainly because the orders of all silicon material enterprises in March had been basically signed, and most of them were in the order execution period. There is less margin in March. From January to February
this year, the price of domestic silicon materials first fell, then rose and then stabilized. After entering March, prices fell for four consecutive weeks.
As for the reasons for this week's price decline, the Silicon Branch said that on the one hand, some of the high-priced enterprises traded last week did not sign new orders this week, and some of the high-priced enterprises in the larger range were removed from the weighted average system, so this week's price decline increased slightly;
On the other hand, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has reached a relatively high level. Affected by crucible quality problems, the demand for silicon materials is relatively stable, and the increase and decrease in supply are basically flat. The recent supply-demand relationship has not been reversed, so the market price has basically continued the previous trend.
Limited by the problem of crucible quality, the decline of silicon materials continued to slow down
. In the recent analysis of the price rise and fall of polysilicon and silicon wafers by the Silicon Branch, the impact of crucible quality problems on silicon wafer enterprises was mentioned.
In the weekly review of polysilicon issued by the Silicon Branch last week, it was mentioned that the silicon wafer enterprises were affected by the quality problems of crucibles, and the increase of disconnection rate led to insufficient output of qualified products. In order to meet the demand for orders, the silicon wafer enterprises have basically raised the operating rate to a relatively high level. At the same time, the quality problems of crucibles led to the acceleration of the replacement frequency of crucibles and the reduction of the effective output time of silicon wafers. The output of silicon wafers per unit time is reduced. Therefore, under the current situation that the demand for silicon wafer orders is guaranteed and the profit of silicon wafers is relatively high, the safety stock of silicon materials of silicon wafer enterprises has increased, which guarantees the demand for silicon materials to a certain extent. Although the quality problem of
quartz crucible limits the expansion progress of monocrystalline silicon enterprises, it guarantees the supply of existing production lines in the future and improves the safety stock of silicon materials, which reduces the price drop of silicon materials to a certain extent.
But on the other hand, the shortage of high-quality quartz sand, the continued rise in prices, the quality of quartz crucibles and other factors will continue to push up the price of silicon wafers. The price trend of silicon materials and silicon wafers is gradually running counter to each other. It is almost certain
that the price of silicon materials will continue to fall with the release of
production capacity. Since this year, major enterprises have increased the layout of polysilicon production capacity and accelerated the production of production lines.
Just yesterday (March 21), Yunnan Tongwei Phase II 200 thousand tons of high purity silicon project started. At present, the annual production capacity of Tongwei high-purity silicon reaches 230000 tons, and by the end of this year, the production capacity will be increased to 350000 tons. In 2024-2026, Tongwei will form a production capacity of 80-100 million tons of high-purity silicon.
On March 15, Inner Mongolia Daxin New Energy Co., Ltd. put into operation the first phase with an annual output of 100,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon and started the second phase with an annual output of 100,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon. The second phase is scheduled to be completed and put into operation by the end of this year.
This is only the "tip of the iceberg" of recent silicon projects.
According to the statistics of Digital New Energy (DBM), more than 4 million tons of projects are currently under construction, and most of them will be put into operation between 2023 and 2024, or 2025 at the latest. At that time, overcapacity and oversupply of silicon materials are almost a foregone conclusion.
Previously, the head of the Silicon Branch also said that the price of silicon materials was relatively stable in the first half of this year, and in the second half of this year, especially in the fourth quarter, there may be a wave of decline at the end of the year.
However, some organizations pointed out that with the price of silicon materials returning to a rational range, the downward price of the upstream and midstream photovoltaic industry chain will bring about an increase in the investment income of downstream photovoltaic power plants, thus stimulating the rapid release of demand for photovoltaic installations. The rational return of silicon material price will also bring about the price adjustment of photovoltaic industry chain, the price game will superimpose the growth of demand for photovoltaic installation, and the pressure of profit concession in the middle and lower reaches and accessories will be alleviated.
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