This week, the price range of domestic N-type material is 73,000-82,000 yuan/ton, the average transaction price is 74,500 yuan/ton, the week-on-week increase is 0.4%; the price range of monocrystalline dense material is 60,000-74,000 yuan/ton, the average transaction price is 65,700 yuan/ton, the week-on-week is flat.
This week, the overall silicon material market rose steadily and slightly, with the price difference between N-type silicon material and P-type silicon material further widening. According to the current re-feeding price, it is still close to the average production cost of polysilicon enterprises, and the situation of overhaul and shutdown also occurs. This week, the vast majority of small factories signed July orders, the number of enterprises with new orders is 7, the overall turnover has declined compared with the previous period, mainly because some enterprises have no margin to sign this month. On the supply side, most of the new projects in the third quarter, including Dongli, Baofeng, Shangji and Hesheng, were put into operation at the end of July, and the overall pattern of excess supply has not been reversed. On the demand side, the recent increase in the operating rate of downstream silicon wafer enterprises is mainly due to the increase in production caused by centralized procurement, and there are signs of a slight improvement in demand. With the upgrade of most N-type battery production lines in the third quarter, downstream enterprises increased the purchase of N-type silicon materials (including some re-feeding materials), so it is expected that the N/P price difference will be further widened.
By the end of this week, the number of domestic enterprises producing silicon materials has been maintained at 14, of which three enterprises have normal equipment maintenance and parallel line maintenance, one has recovered in the middle of the month, and two have resumed operation before the end of the month; in addition, there are still individual enterprises running at reduced load, which has little impact on the output. In the first half of 2023, the output of polysilicon was 651,700 tons, up 91.3% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the output in the first quarter was 222,200 tons, and the output in the second quarter was 251,600 tons, of which the output peak was 90,400 tons in June, 46.7% higher than output of 61,600 tons in June last year. From January to June, the average monthly output of polysilicon in China was 108,600 tons, an increase of 91.2% over the same period last year. The increment mainly came from the optimized release of production capacity and the incremental release of production expansion of GCL-Poly, Xinjiang Daquan, Runyang New Energy and other enterprises. From July to August, some new polysilicon production capacity is still released, and the average monthly output is expected to be between 125,000-127,000 tons, while the average monthly output of silicon wafers in the same period is between 47-49 GW. From the perspective of supply and demand, the trend of slight oversupply will continue, and the excess pressure will mainly focus on P-type silicon materials.
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