On June 5, the US Department of Energy released the National Clean Gas Strategy and Roadmap (National Clean Hydrogen Strategy andRoadmap). The strategy lays out a clear trajectory for achieving a low carbon gas production milestone of 10 million tons per year by 2030, 20 million tons per year by 2040 and 50 million tons per year by 2050.
Wood Mackenzie believes that the current pace of market development in the United States is not enough to support the achievement of this goal, and it is difficult to fully realize the production potential expected in the strategy. The cost of renewable energy, the loading factor of electrolyzers and the slow decline in capital expenditure for hydrogen electrolysis (expected to be about $1,600/kW in 2030) are all factors that hinder the achievement of the target.
Other factors, such as time alignment, geographic location, and carbon intensity calculations, will largely influence the level of production subsidies and thus the rate of adoption. In addition, the strategy identifies the importance of hydrogen applications in markets such as ammonia, the power sector and the biofuels market.
In the United States, the penetration rate of hydrogen energy in end use is uncertain. Influenced by market changes, decarbonization alternatives, policy support and the cost of entering the market, the demand and use of low-carbon hydrogen energy vary greatly from industry to industry.
Japan's hydrogen strategy is ambitious
, and Japan announced its 2nd Basic Hydrogen Strategy in June, which aims to increase domestic hydrogen production tenfold between now and 2030. That is, to increase the production of hydrogen and ammonia to 3 million tons per year by 2030, while addressing the main challenges facing the industry, such as high costs, lagging demand, lack of infrastructure development and standardization of carbon intensity.
Japan plans to introduce a hydrogen subsidy scheme to bridge the gap between the high cost of low-carbon hydrogen and the cost of other feedstocks, but has not yet released details on the level of subsidies.
If Japan intends to attract imports, it must offer subsidies at the same level as the US ( $3/kgH2) and the EU ( €4/kgH2). However, it is unclear whether the target is for domestic production or global supply from Japanese affiliates.
According to the Wood Mackenzie database, a total of 89 million tons/year of low-carbon hydrogen project capacity has been announced worldwide so far, but the construction plan of midstream infrastructure (shipping, pipelines, storage, etc.) is lagging behind.
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