in the First Half of 2023 I. Price Trend of Steel, Cement and Sand and Gravel in the First Half of 2023 (I) Steel prices fell. According to the price monitoring of Jiangxi steel market and Fuzhou Trade Square steel market, the average sales price of 44 steel varieties monitored in the first half of the year rose 44% year-on-year, of which the average sales price in June rose 43% year-on-year and 44% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the average sales price of wire rod (high-speed wire 6.5, HPB300 and high-speed wire 8, HPB300) was 4402.11 yuan/ton and 4489.11 yuan/ton, respectively, down 14.76% and 14.38% from the same period last year. The average sales price in June was 4137.50 yuan/ton and 4112.50 yuan/ton, respectively, up 0.25% and down 1.00% annually, down 16.62% and 18.68% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the average sales price of rebar (φ12mm HRB400E) was 4162.36 yuan/ton, down 15.31% year-on-year, of which the average sales price in June was 3882.50 yuan/ton, down 0.80% year-on-year, down 16.43% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel prices were not weak in the off-season and not strong in the peak season, showing an overall "N" -shaped trend: Since the beginning of this year, thanks to the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy at the end of last year, China's economy has continued to rebound, and steel prices have been rising steadily, but after that, the "strong expectation" of the production side and the "weak reality" of the demand side have formed a contrast. At the same time, the price of coke has entered a fast downward channel. Since mid-March, the price of steel has changed from rising to falling. It once reached the bottom at the end of May. In June, with the independent maintenance and production reduction of steel enterprises, the price of steel has risen again. (2) Decline in cement prices. In the first half of the year, the average price of 42.5 strength ordinary Portland cement in the province was 501.95 yuan/ton, down 13.96% year-on-year, of which the average price in June was 479.04 yuan/ton, down 3.08% annually and 12.05% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the price of cement showed a downward trend: the Spring Festival was too early this year, so the price of cement fell at the beginning of the year due to the impact of the shutdown of the construction site. After the Spring Festival, the market demand was boosted, the price of clinker also rose, and the price of cement began to stop falling and rise. However, since April, the new construction of real estate has been insufficient, and the northern cement plant has opened kilns. Cement "north material south" and then superimposed clinker prices fell, cement prices once again entered the downward channel, the end of the second quarter of the plum rain season began, cement prices fell faster. (3) Prices of river sand, machine-made sand and gravel dropped slightly. In the first half of the year, the average prices of river sand (particle size 0-5mm), machine-made sand (particle size 0-5mm) and gravel (local kingpin) were 126.85 yuan, 98.80 yuan and 89.58 yuan per ton, respectively, down 1.64%, 6.04% and 2.32% from the same period last year. In June, the average price per ton was 125.99 yuan, 97.59 yuan and 89.00 yuan respectively, with a slight decrease of 0.16%, 0.28% and 0.20% respectively, and a slight decrease of 0.74%, 3.63% and 0.99% respectively. Forecast
of steel, cement and sand prices in the
second and third quarters The main factors supporting the rise of steel prices in the third quarter are as follows: First, the third quarter has gradually entered the traditional peak season of steel consumption, which is expected to boost steel prices on the demand side; Second, the peak of electricity consumption in summer is expected to drive up coal prices, thus supporting steel prices on the cost side. The main factors restraining the rise of steel prices in the third quarter are as follows: First, the current steel futures price represented by rebar continues to be lower than spot price, reflecting that the current market is still conservative. Second, the enterprise steel inventory and social steel inventory in June showed a downward trend, reflecting the low willingness of market traders to purchase and replenish stocks, so we expect that steel prices in the third quarter may show a strong trend of volatility.
The third quarter gradually entered the peak construction season of the construction industry, but this year's real estate investment and new construction area of real estate enterprises showed a downward trend, we expect that the demand for cement is difficult to have a considerable increase, so the cement price will continue to show a weak trend, but the decline is expected to narrow. The price of sand and gravel remained stable.
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