Have you seen the updated cement production data of the Bureau of Statistics in 2022? 2.13 billion tons, down 10.5% year-on-year, 0.1 billion tons higher than data published at the beginning, but little change, still the lowest in nearly 11 years. The cement industry has not only reduced production, but also reduced profits. We predict that in 2022, the total profit of the whole cement industry may fall by more than 60%, and the annual profit will only be more than 60 billion.
You know, the last time there was such a big drop in profits in the cement industry was in 2015. The older generation of cement workers knew how difficult it was for the cement industry that year. Is it a "natural disaster" or a "man-made disaster" when industry profits plummeted
last year?
First of all, the cause of "natural disasters" must exist. The two epidemics at the beginning and end of
last year affected the start-up speed of the cement market, limited the development of the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, and limited the demand for cement.
At the same time, as one of the three carriages driving the demand for cement, the investment in real estate development in China also declined sharply last year, and the downward trend of the real estate industry seriously dragged down the demand for cement.
In addition, the high cost of the cement industry last year is also obvious to all.
The annual average price of coal is about 1200 yuan/ton, and the cost of coal per ton of clinker is close to 200 yuan. The high cost of cement production has eroded most of the profits of the cement industry. Under the "natural disasters" such as
epidemic, declining demand and high cost, last year's cement enterprises can be said to be struggling to survive.
Let's talk about "man-made disasters".
Last year, under the influence of the decline in demand exceeding expectations, the core cement markets such as the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta escalated their fierce competition. In order to seize the market, price wars even broke out in some areas, and many enterprises are operating at a loss. It can be said that cracks have appeared in the original competition and cooperation relationship.
In addition, overcapacity has not been cured for a long time, and the national cement overcapacity rate is about 44%, which is close to half.
In recent years, in order to solve the problem of overcapacity, the government and the industry have made a lot of efforts, but still can not be solved from the root. For example, after the introduction of the capacity replacement policy, there are still problems such as the construction of small and large enterprises and the revival of zombie production capacity.
From "natural disasters" to "man-made disasters", the profits of the cement industry plummeted due to the combined effects of various factors. Cement enterprises had a very hard time last year. Will these situations still occur in 2023? Will the cement market rebound from the bottom? What do you think of this.
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