On July 7, the national glass price index closed at 127.27 points, down 1.76% annually, and the price index rose 9.19% year-on-year. The national average price of float glass sheets was 1930.01 yuan/ton, down 34.60 yuan/ton from the previous month.
Figure 1: Recent Trend
of National Glass Price Index Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
I. Analysis of the regional market: Most provinces fell
in the week, the market in most provinces is still mainly down. Judging from the price of float glass in 15 sample provinces and cities, the overall decline has not changed much. Ten provinces, including Hubei, Guangdong and Hunan, fell by less than 4% in the week, while five provinces and cities, including Shandong, Fujian and Liaoning, remained unchanged. See Figure 2 for details.
Figure 2: Changes in Float Glass Prices in 15 Provinces and Cities in China on a week-on-week basis (%)
Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
II. Southwest inventory rose
on July 9, with 305 float glass production lines nationwide, unchanged from the previous week. Within a week, there will be no production line for cold repair, resumption of production and ignition, and the operating rate of float glass enterprises will remain unchanged.
Figure 3: Number of production lines and operating rate of float glass in China (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
During the week, the inventory of float glass production enterprises in China increased slightly. An increase of 0.28% from the previous month. During the week, the overall shipment situation was general, and the inventory of enterprises in South China, North China and Northeast China increased and decreased by 3.48%, 1.32% and 0.27% respectively. The shipment situation in the southwest region was deviated, and the inventory in the week increased by 5.13%. The inventory of the remaining three districts is relatively stable, with a slight increase in the ring ratio. In the off-season of
demand, the fluctuation of glass supply side is also declining, and only in some areas, the shipment situation is relatively good.
Figure 4: National float glass enterprise inventory (10,000 heavy boxes)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
III. Analysis of cost changes: natural gas and petroleum coke rose and fell
, and the prices of glass raw materials and fuels fluctuated during the week. Among them, the average price of natural gas market fell by 7.12%, while the average price of petroleum coke market rose by 7.33%. Soda ash market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price of heavy alkali fell by 0.29% in the week. According to the cost calculation model of Cement Big Data Research Institute, on July 7, the cost of float glass production line (natural gas) was 1,452.56 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from the previous month. The cost of float glass production line (petroleum coke) was RMB1,220.85/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.16%. According to the average price of glass, the average profit of natural gas and petroleum coke production lines is 477.45 yuan/ton and 709.16 yuan/ton respectively. During the week, the trend of soda ash was stable, and the price of natural gas and petroleum coke rose and fell, so the cost trend of natural gas production line and petroleum coke production line was divided.
Figure 5: Float Glass Production Line Cost Trend
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
IV.
The national glass futures contract FG2309 closed at RMB1,595.00/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of RMB78.00/ton (i.e. 5.14%). During the week, glass futures prices rose slightly, currently in the peak season of glass demand and policy vacuum period, glass futures prices fluctuated in a narrow range.
Figure 6: Trend of
Closing Price of Glass Futures Active Contract Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
V. Market forecast for this week: the trend of glass futures and spot market is divided in the week of steady decline
. The demand for high temperature and rainy weather in summer is still in the off-season. The supply is temporarily stable in the week. The capacity climbing of the production line in the early stage of resumption of production has a greater suppression effect on the off-season market. It is expected that the glass market will fall steadily this week.
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