Industry Summit | Chen Tianyu: Outlook of Thermal Coal Market in 2023

March 15, the "2023 China Cement Industry Summit" hosted by China Cement Network was successfully held. Chen Tianyu, Assistant General Manager of China Coal Resources Network, gave a brilliant speech on the theme of "Power Coal Market Outlook in 2023".

Chen Tianyu expects that the supply and demand situation of thermal coal will continue to improve in 2023. In 2023, with the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies and the slow recovery of the economy, the demand for thermal coal will increase. On the supply side, the high-quality production capacity released in 2022 has been put into operation one after another, and the supply has remained high.

Coal production capacity continued to release, and output grew rapidly. Chen Tianyu estimates that the output of raw coal in 2023 will be around 4.5 billion tons, an increase of 0.5-1% over the previous year, and the supply of thermal coal will be 3716.2 million tons, an increase of 0.5% over the previous year. Under the influence of

the epidemic, the demand for thermal coal first declined, then rose and then weakened. Under the influence of the epidemic and the real estate downturn, the demand of the building materials industry is weak. The consumption of thermal coal in the building materials industry was 293.14 million tons, down 9.1% year on year. Chen Tianyu predicts that the consumption of power coal in the power industry will reach 240800 million tons in 2023, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year. & nbsp; & nbsp;

In terms of thermal coal price, from February 16 to early March, the downstream gradually resumed work, just needed support, superimposed mine accidents and other factors, the market sentiment was expected to speculate, and the coal price rebounded sharply by 200 yuan. However, the market supply and demand and inventory status can not continue to strongly support the coal price, and the price has fallen again. Affected by the fluctuation of market sentiment, the fluctuation frequency of coal price increased. It is estimated that the average price in 2023 will be about 1100 yuan/ton, which is about 200 yuan/ton lower than that in 2022.