March 15, the "2023 China Cement Industry Summit" hosted by China Cement Network was successfully held. Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Yiju Kerui Information Group, brought a brilliant report on the theme of "The Impact of the Current Real Estate Industry Situation on the Cement Industry".
Yang Kewei said that the sales scale of the real estate industry has stopped falling optimistically this year, and the weak recovery and the slowdown of turnover are still the main theme. He predicted that the first quarter is expected to be a partial Xiaoyangchun, the second half of the year is expected to recover as a whole, and the development trend of low before and high after the whole year will be maintained. In the future, the pace of urbanization will slow down, and the real estate industry will enter the downward channel of the big cycle and the new low of the five small cycles.
He expects the sales area of commercial housing to fall by 0-5% and the sales amount to fall by 0-8% in 2023. The land acquisition area will still be at a historical low, and is expected to decrease by 2% -5% year-on-year; it is expected that the new housing construction area will decrease by 20% -25% year-on-year in 2023; it is expected that the completed housing area will increase by 10% -15% year-on-year in 2023.
He predicted that in the next ten years, the incremental demand for housing in the whole industry will still reach about 10 billion square meters. However, in the next ten years, the incremental scale of the real estate industry will drop by about 30% compared with the past 10 years, and cement industry enterprises should be prepared to reduce production.
But at the same time, he believes that the real estate industry still has growth opportunities:
housing increment, the future improvement of demand to become the industry's main growth space.
Stock renewal: the national housing is nearly 40 billion square meters, and the per capita of completed + under construction + to be built is about 50 square meters. In the future, the real estate industry will enter the era of stock renewal.
In addition, the basic housing system of "simultaneous rent and sale" has achieved a blowout in the supply of affordable rental housing in the "14th Five-Year Plan".
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