According to the information released by relevant departments, on December 25, 2022, Red Lion Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Hereinafter referred to as "Red Lion Group") signed a share transfer agreement with Asia Silicon Co., Ltd., a shareholder of Asia Silicon Industry (Qinghai) Co., Ltd. Transfer of the Company from Asia Silicon Co., Ltd. to Red Lion Group 53. Prior to the transaction, Asia Silicon Co., Ltd. held Asia Silicon 76. What is the quality of Red Lion Group's acquisition of 6.5 billion
yuan of total equity in Asia Silicon? As early as August 2022, there were media reports that people familiar with the situation disclosed that the controlling shareholders of some domestic silicon companies transferred all their shares in the company at a price of 11 billion yuan because of the rejection of the IPO. After this transaction, the Asian Silicon Industry has changed ownership, and the new owner has become the Red Lion Group. Founded in 2006,
Asia Silicon's main business is polysilicon, photovoltaic power plant power products and maintenance services, of which the revenue from polysilicon business accounts for more than 90%.
2022, after completing three rounds of inquiries and replies, Asia Silicon and its sponsor Ping An Securities submitted to the Shanghai Stock Exchange the application documents for withdrawing the initial public offering of Asia Silicon and listing on the board. According to the relevant provisions, the Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to terminate its public offering and listing audit. Although the IPO is blocked, Asian Silicon's annual output of 30,000 tons and 40,000 tons of electronic-grade polysilicon projects will start construction in 2020 and 2021 respectively. After all the projects are put into operation, the polysilicon production capacity of Asian Silicon will reach 8.
According to the author's calculation, the investment cost of the new polysilicon production line is 700-900 million tons. Regardless of other factors, the seller's offer does not seem to be cheap.
The Red Lion cross-border photovoltaic industry is in the
limelight. In 2022, the output of each link of the photovoltaic industry chain reached a record high. The output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and modules in China reached 827000 tons, 357 GW, 318 GW and 288.7 GW respectively, with a year-on-year increase of more than 55%, and the newly installed capacity reached 87.41 GW, with a year-on-year increase of 59.
In order to achieve carbon neutrality, the effective installed capacity of PV will reach 20 TW in 2050, that is, the annual global installed capacity will be 460 GW. If the acceleration curve is considered, the probability will be that the annual new capacity will exceed 1 TW by 2030, and the growth space will be more than ten times.
Both the growth rate and the scale of the industry are very eye-catching. Especially in the silicon material sector, most of the profits have been obtained. At present, the four major silicon enterprises, Tongwei Stock, Daquan Energy, Xiexin Science and Technology and Xinte Energy, have issued performance forecasts for 2022, with a total net profit of more than 72.9 billion yuan in 2022.
According to the price of silicon materials, it is estimated that the scale of polysilicon industry in 2022 will be about 250 billion, which shows that the profit of silicon materials industry is much higher than that of the general industry.
As a strong force in the cement industry, it is wise for Red Lion Group to develop photovoltaic as the second growth curve after encountering bottlenecks in the cement business. In 2022, the total profit of the cement industry is predicted to be around 70 billion yuan, with a sharp decline of 58% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit of enterprises has also fallen sharply. Figure: Cement industry profit
Red Lion is also a salvation for the Asian silicon industry. Although the Asian silicon industry currently ranks sixth in the production capacity of silicon materials, and its production capacity is behind the five silicon giants of Tongwei, Poly Xiexin, Xinte Energy, Oriental Hope and Daqo Energy, the competition in the polysilicon market is becoming more and more intense, and the old players are financing to expand production and investing tens of billions of yuan. By the end of
2023, Tongwei's silicon production capacity will reach 350,000 tons, GCL Technology plans to reach more than 600,000 tons of granular silicon production capacity by the end of 2023, and Xinte Energy and Daqo Energy plan to reach more than 300,000 tons of silicon production capacity by the end of 2023. In addition, new players such as Xinyi Silicon Industry, Jiangsu Sunshine, Nanbo, Hesheng Silicon Industry and Trina Solar Energy have crossed the border and started many projects intensively, while Asian Silicon Industry's IPO listing has been blocked and its financing channels have been frustrated, and it has fallen behind in the capital-intensive polysilicon industry every minute.
Strategic restructuring opens up the dual main business pattern
. Red Lion Group will build the dual main business pattern of "cement + polysilicon" in the future. Recently, Red Lion Group has officially started the transformation from focusing on cement to dual main industries. In the New Year's speech in 2023, Red Lion Group said that in the future, it will base itself on the main industry of cement and enter the polysilicon industry. The main industry of cement will be strengthened, supplemented by expansion. The polysilicon industry will speed up its layout and scale, and build a dual main industry pattern of "cement + polysilicon". Therefore, this year will be the key year for Red Lion Group to actively promote the layout of polysilicon in order to achieve a good start.
As early as last year, we have frequently seen the steps of Red Lion Group towards photovoltaic. In 2022, the Red Lion Xinjiang Photovoltaic Project will be built with an annual output of 2 * 50,000 tons of polysilicon, a supporting industrial silicon production line with an annual output of 120,000 tons of raw materials and a 3GW crystal pulling and slicing device. At present, the project is in progress in an orderly manner. In addition, Red Lion Group has visited Dechang County for many times, and the landing of new projects is just around the corner.
The author believes that through acquisition and self-construction, Red Lion's polysilicon production capacity will reach more than 200000 tons, occupying a place. Polysilicon is a resource-intensive and capital-intensive cyclical industry, which has many similarities with the cement industry in business. Red Lion Group relies on the cement industry with better cash flow, or can iron out its own business cycle through the two industries, and become the leader of cement + photovoltaic dual materials.
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