2023 (February 20-26), according to the monitoring data of Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce on the circulation market of means of production in the whole province, compared with the previous week (the same below), the average sales price of the monitored varieties was mainly rising. The monitoring sample categories showed a trend of 4 up, 2 down and 1 flat, in which the market prices of steel, coal, refined oil and non-ferrous metals rose; the prices of fertilizer and chemical products fell; and the price of cement was flat. The specific monitoring situation is as follows:
First, the steel market price rose by 1.3%
, the average price of steel sales in the province was 4668.37 yuan/ton, up 1.3%, down 12.7% year-on-year. In terms of varieties, the average sales price of construction steel was 4589.95 yuan/ton, up 1.1%, down 11.2% year-on-year; the average sales price of plate was 4666.84 yuan/ton, up 1.8%, down 12.6% year-on-year; the average sales price of pipe was 5020 yuan/ton, up 1%, down 11.5% year-on-year; The average sales price of large and medium-sized timber was 4553.27 yuan/ton, up 1%, down 14.8% year on year. Steel market prices
in the province have risen, market transactions have basically returned to normal, and the average daily shipments of some construction steel and medium and heavy plate dealers are about 650 tons and 750 tons respectively. According to the tracking survey of steel inventory in Changsha market, the total inventory of construction steel market is about 351000 tons, down by 3000 tons, of which the inventory of rebar and wire rod is about 238000 tons and 113000 tons respectively, down by 2000 tons and 1000 tons respectively; The inventory of hot-rolled coils was approximately 112,000 tons, and that of cold-rolled coils was approximately 19,000 tons, with a decrease of 11,000 tons and 1,000 tons respectively; the inventory of medium and heavy plates was approximately 45,000 tons, with a decrease of 5,000 tons. The main reason for the rise in steel market prices in the
whole province is the increase in the activity of steel market transactions. With the gradual startup of the downstream industry demand, the trading volume of steel products continued to rise, the transfer of steel mills' inventory to the market accelerated, the market was highly motivated to take goods, and the market was generally cautious and optimistic. Second, the cost of new resources in the market was relatively high, which had a strong support for steel prices. Iron ore, billet, scrap and coking coal prices fluctuated and rose. This week, Lianyuan Steel raised the ex-factory prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled coils in Hunan by 50 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively, indicating rising costs. The research on the steel market price trend in the
later period focuses on two aspects, one is the change of steel market inventory and trading volume, and the other is that the recovery of steel production capacity is subject to profitability.
To sum up, the current steel market in the whole province is characterized by "capacity rebound, transaction improvement and inventory decline". It is expected that the steel market price of the whole province will continue to rise in shock next week.
Two, the coal market price rose 1.6%
, the average price of coal sales in the province was 1221.08 yuan/ton, up 1.6%, up 3.5% year on year. In terms of varieties, the average sales price of anthracite was 1634 yuan/ton, up 0.7%, up 3.2% year-on-year; the average sales price of bituminous coal was 1014.63 yuan/ton, up 2.3%, up 3.8% year-on-year. Coal prices
in the province showed an upward trend after two consecutive weeks of decline, and the market inventory declined. The main reason for the rise in coal prices is that due to the impact of a coal mine accident in a certain place, the safety supervision of the coal industry has become more stringent, and the expected tightening of coal supply in the later period has increased, which has played a role in promoting coal prices. Hunan's coal resource endowment is insufficient, its external dependence is high, and the pressure of coal supply and price stabilization has existed for a long time. Second, the demand for industrial coal has steadily rebounded. Recently, steel, chemical, cement and other industries have gradually recovered, and coal consumption has increased with the continuous increase in the operating rate of industrial enterprises and the release of some market demand.
In terms of the price trend of the coal market in the later period, firstly, the current stable growth policy of the whole province continues, the liquidity remains loose, and the overall coal demand remains at a high level; secondly, under the influence of factors such as the tightening of coal mine safety supervision and the expected preference of market demand, the market mentality is generally cautious and optimistic. However, after the coal market price rises, the downstream acceptance increases slowly, the market turnover is limited, and the uncertainties in the future market increase. It is expected that the coal market price of the whole province will continue to be volatile and strong next week, and the increase will slow down.
Third, the wholesale and retail prices of refined oil rose by 1.1% and remained flat
, respectively. The average wholesale sales price of refined oil in the province was 9222.91 yuan/ton, up 1.1%, down 3.1% year-on-year, and the average retail sales price was 7.87 yuan/ton, flat, down 0.8% year-on-year. In terms of varieties, the average wholesale and retail prices of gasoline were RMB9451.47/ton and RMB7.97/liter, up by 1.4% and flat respectively, down by 3.9% and 0.7% respectively; the average wholesale and retail prices of diesel were RMB8308.7/ton and RMB7.5/liter, down by 0.1% and flat respectively, up by 1.1% and down by 0.5% respectively. The wholesale and retail prices of
refined oil in the whole province rose steadily, among which the wholesale prices of refined oil rose and the retail prices remained flat. Affected by the overhaul of seasonal refined oil units, the operating rate of refineries has declined, and the main refineries have a strong willingness to support prices. Looking ahead, the demand for spring ploughing oil in the whole province is supported, but the Fed's interest rate hike and the situation in Russia and Ukraine are uncertain about the price trend of refined oil. It is expected that the wholesale and retail prices of refined oil in the whole province will be weak next week.
4. The market price of chemical fertilizer dropped by 1%
, and the average sales price of chemical fertilizer in the whole province was 3374.4 yuan/ton, down 1%, up 5.6% year on year. In terms of varieties, the average sales price of nitrogenous fertilizer was 2900.66 yuan/ton, down by 0.5% and up by 3.5% year-on-year; the average sales price of phosphate fertilizer was 3263.6 yuan/ton, down by 1.6% and up by 4.6% year-on-year; the average sales price of potash fertilizer was 3690.38 yuan/ton, down by 1.2% and up by 6.2% year-on-year; The average selling price of ternary compound fertilizer was 3326.99 yuan/ton, down 0.4%, up 7.3% year on year. After two consecutive weeks of rising prices, the market price of chemical fertilizer
in the whole province showed a downward trend, with abundant supply and gradually increasing market inventory. The main reasons for the decline in fertilizer prices are the implementation of the policy of guaranteeing supply and stabilizing prices and the introduction of preferential measures. Looking forward to the future market, on the one hand, the price of raw materials basically fluctuates, the possibility of sharp rise or fall is not great, and the cost pressure still exists; on the other hand, the spring tillage preparation has entered a critical period, the chemical fertilizer is in the peak consumption season, and the demand is gradually warming up; moreover, the release of the national reserve fertilizer is imminent, and the trend of increasing the supply of chemical fertilizer in the later period is not decreasing. It is expected that the market price of chemical fertilizer in the whole province will fluctuate steadily and slightly next week.
Five, the cement market price is flat
, the average price of cement sales in the province is 398.18 yuan/ton, basically flat, down 13.8% year on year. In terms of varieties, the average sales price of ordinary Portland cement was RMB390.69/ton, down by 0.1%, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%; the average sales price of composite Portland cement was RMB405.67/ton, flat, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. Cement market prices
in the province showed a steady trend after two consecutive weeks of rising prices, and market demand continued to recover. At present, the peak-shifting production arrangement of the new dry process cement clinker production line in the province in the first quarter of 2023 has been introduced, and the longest number of days for the kiln shutdown of 59 cement production enterprises in the first quarter of peak-shifting production is 51 days, with a cumulative shutdown of 1443 days. It can be seen that in the first quarter of this year, the production of cement peak staggering in the whole province has been strengthened, the pressure of market inventory is not great, and the supply of cement in the whole province is controllable.
Looking forward to the future market, the peak season of the cement industry will come after March, the downstream industry will resume production well, the cement market will gradually recover, the shipment volume will maintain an upward trend, and the projects that have been started will gradually produce more physical quantities. With controllable cement supply and high cost, it is expected that the cement market price in the whole province will continue to rise steadily.
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