According to Xinhua News Agency, since June, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean has shown an obvious upward trend, and now it has shown an El Nino state. Many areas in China are also generally attacked by high temperature weather, and some areas have even refreshed the record of high temperature extremes in the same period in history. At the same time, the peak of electricity consumption has arrived ahead of schedule, and the electricity consumption of the whole society has increased rapidly. According to the operation profile of the power industry released by
China Electric Power Enterprise Federation recently, from January to May, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 3532.5 billion kWh, an increase of 5.2% over the same period last year. In May, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 722.2 billion kWh, an increase of 7.4% over the same period last year.
According to Peng Mei News, at 10:46 on July 3, the electricity load of Zhejiang Power Grid exceeded 100 million kilowatts, and at 13:19, it broke through the 100 million mark again, reaching 102 million kilowatts, a record high. This is the earliest summer peak in the history of Zhejiang Power Grid to enter the stage of breaking 100 million loads, 8 days earlier than breaking 100 million in 2022. Zhejiang Energy Bureau predicts that during the summer peak period this year, the maximum load of the whole society in Zhejiang will reach 115 million kilowatts, an increase of more than 10% over the same period last year.
Every summer, the stability of power supply always attracts much attention. In China's power structure, thermal power accounts for about 60-70%, and hydropower accounts for about 15%. Although the proportion of hydropower is relatively small, it is still an indispensable part of power supply.
Let's turn our attention to Sichuan, where power rationing was implemented last year. Sichuan is a major province of hydropower, with hydropower accounting for more than 75%; Sichuan is also an important export province of "West-to-East Power Transmission" in China, with about 30% of electricity exported to other provinces every year. Sichuan generated 31.98 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in May, down 7.1% from a year earlier, according to the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics.
Last year, because of the drought in the Yangtze River, the hydropower generation in Sichuan declined, which led to a power shortage. This year, the El Nino phenomenon struck again. The high temperature not only brought higher electricity load, but also affected the power supply of Sichuan and other major hydropower provinces to themselves and the eastern region.
Last year, Sichuan, Chongqing and other places limited electricity, cement enterprises limited production, cement prices ushered in a wave of rise, the previous year's nationwide power production restrictions and rising coal prices triggered the cement market. This year, the peak of electricity consumption is coming ahead of schedule, and the pressure of electricity load is increasing. Will large-scale power rationing "come back"?
Let's first take a look at why there was power rationing in some areas last year.
As mentioned above, one of the reasons for the power shortage last year was the rapid growth of electricity load driven by extreme hot weather. Sichuan, as one of the main bases of "West-to-East Power Transmission", is located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Chongqing and other provinces (cities) with large power consumption. The continuous drought after summer last year resulted in insufficient hydropower transmission.
In addition, due to the impact of coal "capacity reduction" and limited output growth, there is a shortage of coal supply in some areas of China, and coal prices are soaring. In addition, geopolitical factors prohibit the import of Australian coal, resulting in insufficient thermal power generation. Under the comprehensive influence of the above reasons, the phenomenon of power limitation and production limitation has appeared in Sichuan and Chongqing.
Ensuring energy supply and preventing large-scale power cuts are the decisive measure to ensure stable economic and social development, smooth and orderly progress of the national "double carbon" strategy and the implementation of new development concepts. This year's peak summer is facing a lot of pressure, although this year's high temperature is worse than last year's, but this year's large-scale power outages are unlikely.
First of all, on the basis of the lessons and experiences of the previous two years, the state's preparations for the summer peak power supply will be more solid and adequate.
Recently, Meng Wei, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that from the current situation, the installed capacity of power generation in China has continued to grow steadily, and the coal storage in power plants has reached a record high of 187 million tons; The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to organize the production and supply of coal and natural gas, urge all localities and power generation enterprises to stabilize the coal storage of power plants at a relatively high level, ensure the coal power with high calorific value, gas power and hydropower energy storage required for peak power generation, and promote the full generation of various generating units. Ensure that the output level of thermal power during peak hours is better than perennial, optimize the dispatching of reservoirs to enhance the peak power generation capacity of hydropower, and promote wind power, solar power and nuclear power for multiple purposes.
Secondly, the resumption of coal imports from Australia this year has optimized the domestic coal structure, increased coal supply, and coal prices have also "fallen accordingly". At present, the domestic coal reserves are sufficient, and the phenomenon of rising coal prices caused by the imbalance between supply and demand in the electricity market will also have limited impact due to sufficient coal reserves. When there is a gap in power supply, thermal power can be filled in time.
At present, the cement market is not as "hot" as El Nino, and cement prices in most parts of the country are hovering at the cost line. Even if partial power and production restrictions occur, the sudden sharp decline in demand this year will make cement prices "unable to lift their heads", and the simple model of cement enterprises in the past, which encountered production restrictions and rising costs, has been unable to play.
At present, the downward trend of cement demand is prominent, energy prices remain high, costs remain high for a long time, and profit compression has become the norm. Improving energy efficiency and reducing cost pressure have become the key breakthrough points for cement enterprises to enhance their comprehensive strength and market competitiveness.
Under the influence of "double carbon" and the possible "power limitation" policy, the adoption of economic and clean photovoltaic power generation has become an important option for the cement industry to get rid of the dependence on purchased electricity and reduce carbon emissions, and also provides a new development model for cement enterprises to increase income and reduce expenditure, save energy and reduce carbon. On July 6-7,
2023, China Cement Network will hold the "2023 China Cement Energy Conservation and New Energy Development Conference" in Chongqing, starting from energy-saving transformation, photovoltaic, energy storage and other technology applications, green power, alternative fuels to replace tradi tional energy transformation, and so on. We will jointly explore new ways of energy saving and carbon reduction in the cement industry and help the cement industry move towards a new journey of low-carbon and high-quality development. The
future of the cement industry is full of challenges, the supply-side reform dividend has come to an end, demand has entered a recession, if we do not grasp the window period of transformation and upgrading, the tide will fade to know who is swimming naked.
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