1. Market analysis: All provinces fell
. In June, the national glass price fell. At the end of the month, the national glass price index closed at 129.55 points, down 8.26% from the previous month, and the price index rose year-on-year. At the end of the month, the national average price of float glass sheets was 1964.61 yuan/ton.
Figure 1: Trend of National Glass Price Index in June 2023 Figure 2: K-line
Chart of Glass Price Index in Recent Year Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) Sichuan, Liaoning, Fujian and other six provinces. Guangdong, Hubei and other gains were in the middle, ranging from 5 to 10%. The other four provinces, such as Shaanxi and Tianjin, fell by less than 5%. See the figure below for details.
Figure 3: Float glass prices in 15 provinces and cities in China Change on week-on-week basis (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. Due to the long-term downturn in real estate, the expectation of stimulating real estate is increasing. On June 16, China Merchants Shekou Fixed Increase Scheme was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission for registration, and equity financing in the A-share market, which had been suspended for many years, was reopened, which is also the official landing of the "third arrow" policy of real estate financing. Some cities also adjust the purchase policy to stimulate real estate consumption. But the real estate data released in June was still bleak. From January to May, the investment in real estate development in China was 4.57 trillion yuan, down from the same period last year. From January to May, the housing construction and new construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 6.2% and 22% respectively. Year-on-year growth from January to May 19.
Figure 4: National real estate development indicators (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
From January to May, the growth rate of completed area in all major regions of the country increased year-on-year. Among them, the northeast and southwest have the largest growth rate. Year-on-year growth of 75.86% and 27% respectively.
Figure 5: Completed real estate area in six regions of China Year-on-year (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
In May, automobile production and sales continued to recover. From January to May, both the production and sales of automobiles increased on a year-on-year basis. 11
. Figure 6: Year-on-year
production and sales of automobiles Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
In June, the demand for float glass increased on a month-on-month basis. It is estimated that the apparent demand for float glass in June was 1.9525 million tons, down 28.22% from the same period last year.
Figure 7: Monthly Apparent Demand
for Float Glass in China Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. Yaohua (Yibin) Glass Co., Ltd. The 600t/d glass production line was ignited and put into production, and in addition, three production lines resumed production. There are 5 cold repair production lines, and the daily melting volume is reduced by 300 t/d in a month. Generally speaking, the overall production capacity in June is stable. However, considering the large number of production lines resumed in May, it is expected that the output of float glass will increase in June as the production capacity climbs. With the increase of cold repair in the month, the operating rate of float glass enterprises has declined.
Figure 8: Number of production lines and operating rate of float glass in China (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Table 1: Changes in float glass production capacity in June 2023
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. Overall, the national inventory at the end of June increased by 6. Regionally, the fastest accumulation of inventory was in Central China and Southwest China, which increased by 39.37% and 25% respectively at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the inventory level dropped by 8.4% and 19 respectively.
Figure 9: Inventory of float glass enterprises in China (10,000 heavy boxes)
Data source: cement big data (the price of https://data.ccement. heavy alkali has returned to more than 2000 yuan/ton. 2. The trend of petroleum coke fluctuated, with a month-on-month decline of 7.94%.
Figure 10: Price Trend of Main Raw Materials and Fuels for Float Glass in June (Unit: yuan/ton)
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
According to Cement Big Data According to the cost estimation model of the Data Research Institute, the cost of float glass production line (natural gas) at the end of the month was RMB1,501.93/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.79%, and the cost of float glass production line (petroleum coke) was RMB1,195.07/ton, representing a month-on-month decrease of 1.During the month, the price trend of natural gas and petroleum coke was divided, and the cost of production lines rose and fell.
Figure 11: Float Glass Production Line Cost Trend
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
5.
The closing price of the national glass futures FG2309 contract was 1,517.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 108.00 yuan/ton (that is, under the stimulation of the real estate policy expectation in July, the futures price rebounded and then fell, but on the whole, it was still rising in the month.
Figure 12: Trend
of closing prices of active glass futures contracts Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. supply is relatively stable, but the ramp up of production capacity of production lines that resumed production in the early stage has a greater suppression effect on the off-season market. It is expected that the glass market will fall steadily in July, and the decline will be narrowed.
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