A slight increase of about 5%, an increase of 32% compared with May last year. From January to May, the total export of 88GW photovoltaic modules increased by about 39% compared with the same period last year, indicating the rapid growth of overseas markets in 2023.
The European
market imported about 11.9 GW of photovoltaic modules from China in May, up 12% from 10.6 GW in April and 34% from May last year. From January to May, China imported 51.9 GW photovoltaic modules, an increase of about 56% compared with the same period last year. Although imports in the European market increased
this month compared with the previous month, the annual growth rate showed signs of slowing down in April and May compared with January to March, reflecting that a large number of goods pulled at the beginning of this year did cause inventory impact, the growth rate in the second quarter was significantly lower than that in the first quarter, and electricity prices in the European region began to decline. For photovoltaic demand brings adverse factors, side observation distribution price obviously began to decline in the second quarter, the current module price has reached about 0.20-0.22 U.S. dollars per watt, the second half of the quotation is down to 0.17-0.18 U.S. dollars per watt, in addition to the impact of the overall supply chain price decline, but also shows that the European market demand began to weaken. Therefore, although the third quarter is the traditional peak season for the European market, the growth rate compared with last year may be difficult to reach the level of the first quarter, thus affecting the total demand in Europe throughout the year.
Asia Pacific Market
In May, the Asia Pacific market imported 2.5g W PV modules from China, with a month-on-month decrease of 19% and an increase of 17% compared with the same period last year; in 2023, the cumulative import of 15.2G W PV modules from China.
India shrank rapidly after the BCD tariff came into effect in March 2022, but according to customs data, the decline in component prices this year has reached the threshold for local developers to start construction, and previously deferred projects are gradually starting. India's demand for Chinese modules averaged only about 100MW per month from June to December last year, but it has increased significantly since 2023. From January to May, China imported 2G W photovoltaic modules cumulatively, with an average monthly import of 400MW, indicating that the market demand began to recover with the decline in prices. Japan and Australia, the
major markets, are the markets that have entered the mature stage of PV development. The cumulative number of PV modules imported from China this year has only a slight increase compared with 2022, and the monthly change is only a small fluctuation. Other Southeast Asian countries and Pakistan have a significant increase this year, but the month-on-month ratio has decreased.
The American market
The American market imported about 2.37 GW PV modules from China in May, which was basically flat compared with the previous month and increased by about 18% compared with May 2022. Since 2023, the cumulative imports from China were about 12.4 GW PV modules, which increased by 26% compared with the same period last year. Brazil,
a major market, imported about 1.3 GW of Chinese PV modules this month, down 12.5% month-on-month. In order to make the project applicable to the old power framework with more favorable conditions, the projects with less than 75 kw have been connected to the grid before May, and the demand in May is obviously slower than that at the beginning of the year, indicating that the large-scale cargo tide caused by the change of regulations is gradually receding, and the previously undigested inventory is also beginning to affect the demand for components every month. The rest of the projects will be installed by the end of 2023, and as component prices fall, the ground market in Brazil has grown significantly, and it is expected that Brazil will still be able to maintain a certain demand by the end of the year. Chile is a country with significant growth in the Americas since 2023. In May, the import of PV modules from China reached 487 MW, and since this year, the cumulative import of PV modules from China has reached 2G W, which has rapidly grown into a key PV market in South America, but decreased by about 9% compared with April.
The Middle East and Africa
Middle East market imported 1020 MW of Chinese PV modules in May, with a slight increase in both month-on-month and annual growth. Saudi Arabia's demand performance this year is very impressive. In May, China's demand for PV modules reached 536 MW. Since this year, imports have reached 1.8GW, accounting for 40% of the total demand in the Middle East this year, surpassing the United Arab Emirates and Israel to become the key market in the Middle East. The demand in Saudi Arabia mainly comes from large-scale ground projects, and the local public investment fund has set ambitious renewable energy targets, with high policy execution, and has even begun to actively seek manufacturers to assist in the establishment of local production capacity; and the decline in component prices is also conducive to the development of ground projects, and it is expected that the project will continue to bring a large number of component demand.
The African market imported 1173 MW of Chinese components in May, with South Africa as the main demand country. South Africa has been facing severe power rationing for a long time, and intermittent power outages have caused a lot of economic losses. The government turned to renewable energy as a solution and introduced tax relief for distributed photovoltaic to encourage photovoltaic installation. Since this year, South Africa's photovoltaic demand has grown rapidly, with cumulative imports of more than 2.6GW photovoltaic modules from January to May, an increase of nearly 4.5 times over last year.
Summarizing the data of China's photovoltaic customs in May, although the growth of the European market is still obvious, there is a trend of slowing down compared with the first quarter, which shows that the previous large number of pulling goods does have an impact on the overall demand in the second quarter. As Europe is the largest overseas market, the slowdown of pulling goods will affect manufacturers'shipment expectations for the whole year. While fast-growing Europe and Brazil slowed down last year, some emerging markets with smaller demand in the past experienced higher-than-expected growth due to factors such as high electricity prices and falling component prices. Looking ahead, the second and third quarters have always been a period of strong overseas demand, but the rapid increase in the first quarter of this year has led to the accumulation of overseas inventory. It is expected that the growth rate will slow down in the third quarter as well as in the second quarter, thus reducing the growth rate of overseas market demand throughout the year.
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