Real estate, as the main driving force of cement demand, accounts for about 35% of the total demand for cement, and even 50% in some key markets. It can be said that the trend of the real estate market directly affects the changes in the cement market.
In 2022, the real estate industry ushered in a cold winter, and the demand for cement declined significantly. According to the cement market survey conducted by China Cement Network in all regions of the country, the demand for 2022 cement in most regions has dropped by more than 15%, and even 30% in some regions. In the near future, how will the frequent positive signals of real estate affect the cement industry? What is the real estate situation in 2023?
In the exchange with Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Kerui Research Center, we learned that the current real estate market has recovered significantly, the second-hand heat is ahead of the new house, and the low level of Suining, Hanjin, Chongqing and Zhengzhou has rebounded. In February, the turnover of new houses increased by about 50% compared with the same month, 10% compared with March last year, 2% compared with the same period in February, and 42% compared with 21 years. According to Yang Kewei's prediction, Xiaoyangchun will continue in March.
"For the whole year, the investment scale of the whole real estate industry is optimistically expected to be the same as last year, and the neutral forecast will still have a decline of less than 5%." Yang Kewei said, mainly due to the following two aspects:
from the supply point of view, this year there is not a lot of land that can be developed, from the enterprise side, there are not many enterprises have the ability to start. Therefore, the new construction of real estate this year will still have a significant decline compared with last year.
From the demand side, real estate in many cities has been recovering recently, but generally speaking, it is still dotted, and most cities are still hovering at the bottom. The main reason is that the current epidemic has just been released, the economy has not fully recovered, and many people do not have full confidence in high loans to buy houses. At the same time, housing prices in some places have not stopped falling, and some people who plan to buy houses are in a wait-and-see state.
It is worth noting that Yang Kewei said that the era of rapid growth in the scale of the real estate industry has passed, and China's population has begun to show negative growth. In the future, the total new demand of China's real estate industry will certainly shrink, and the amount of new development will also decline, entering the era of stock.
In the context of the downturn of the real estate industry, it is difficult to rely on infrastructure to support cement demand alone. In this regard, he suggested that the cement industry should be prepared to adjust production capacity in advance, keep close to the change of demand side, improve quality and reduce quantity. What is
the current national real estate situation? How much is the new construction area of real estate in 2023? What is the impact on cement demand this year? If you want to know more details, you can pay attention to the "2023 China Cement Industry Summit" held by China Cement Network in Hangzhou on March 15-16. At that time, Yang Kewei will give you more wonderful speeches.
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